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Predictions / FURIA vs GamerLegion · match preview
FURIA vs GamerLegion: CS2 match prediction · FISSURE Playground 3
FURIA
World #3 · 32-22
VS
2026-09-08 12:00 UTC
FISSURE Playground 3 · Best of 3 · ★★
GamerLegion
World #18 · 32-23
64%36%
74%
1.273.55Market · 15 books
26%The call
FURIA are favoured: our model gives them 64% against GamerLegion. Bookmakers lean FURIA at 74%. Strength slightly favours FURIA, firepower slightly favours FURIA, head-to-head slightly favours GamerLegion.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FURIApullGamerLegion
Team strength1655
157766/34 FUR
Track record32–22
32–2351/49 FUR
Recent formLLWWLLLWWL50/50
Roster rating1.1
1.0764/36 FUR
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 GAM
Bookmakers imply 74% for FURIA (1.27 / 3.55); we land 10 points lower at 64%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (140 maps of FURIA, 116 of GamerLegion). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: GamerLegion leads 1–0.
Bottom line: FURIA to beat GamerLegion, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
GamerLegion
Vitality#42-70-4
MOUZ#54-11-2
GamerLegion vs MOUZ
Aug 19LMirage11-13Ancient22-19Nuke11-13
Legacy#71-22-1
FURIA vs Legacy
Aug 23LAncient13-9Nuke9-13Dust29-13GamerLegion vs Legacy
May 16WAncient13-9Mirage3-13Inferno13-6
Natus Vincere#84-21-7
GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere
May 17LMirage3-13Anubis9-13Nuke13-16May 12LInferno4-13Ancient13-1Mirage11-13May 1LMirage10-13Ancient4-13
G2#92-10-2
FURIA vs G2
Aug 20WAncient13-3Anubis3-13Dust213-4GamerLegion vs G2
Apr 3LInferno14-16Ancient7-13
Aurora#106-32-3
FURIA vs Aurora
Aug 19WAncient13-11Nuke14-16Mirage13-9Jun 20WDust213-9Nuke13-4Mar 20LDust214-16Inferno6-13+1 earlier meeting
Astralis#133-34-3
GamerLegion vs Astralis
Jun 6LAncient4-13May 14WMirage13-3Ancient13-8May 2WOverpass13-8Inferno16-14+1 earlier meeting
B8#155-21-2
Firepower
roster ratingsFURIA · avg 1.1 · top +0.1
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FURIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFURGAM
AncientFUR ban50%3-365%13-7
Dust2GAM ban58%18-1311%1-8
InfernoFUR pick55%11-964%16-9
MirageGAM pick56%19-1556%15-12
AnubisFUR ban43%3-425%1-3
NukeGAM ban59%13-950%11-11
Cachedecider40%2-3100%1-0
FURIA on Cache
LVitality11–133d agoL
Spirit5–137d agoW
M8016–1310d agoW
paiN13–612d agoL
DENDELE14–162mo agoGamerLegion on Cache
W
K2713–45d agoEach team's usual first ban: FURIA Ancient · GamerLegion Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
GamerLegion56%to win the seriesiMap edgesInferno: GamerLegion 59% · Mirage: FURIA 50% toss-up · Cache: GamerLegion 54% toss-upWhyGamerLegion hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesFURIA 44%: 2-1 23%, 2-0 21% · GamerLegion 56%: 2-0 29%, 2-1 27%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
FURIA 44%It’s nearly a coin-flip. GamerLegion only lead because their Inferno is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.56% GamerLegion
Inferno
FURIA41%GamerLegion59%
11-9record16-9
55%win64%
57%CT win52%
46%T win50%
53%pistol38%
71%convert74%
Mirage
FURIA50%GamerLegion50%
19-15record15-12
56%win56%
59%CT win54%
44%T win48%
47%pistol50%
72%convert74%
Cache
FURIA46%GamerLegion54%
2-3record1-0
40%win100%
49%CT win80%
48%T win75%
50%pistol50%
80%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
FURct
FURt
GAMct
GAMt
FURpistol
FURconv
FUReco
GAMpistol
GAMconv
GAMeco
Infernopool
57%114/201
46%95/205
52%138/266
50%140/282
53%21/40
71%15/21
16%3/19
38%19/50
74%14/19
26%8/31
Miragepool
59%226/381
44%148/339
54%140/258
48%145/304
47%32/68
72%23/32
31%11/36
50%27/54
74%20/27
19%5/27
Cachepool
49%27/55
48%26/54
80%4/5
75%9/12
50%5/10
80%4/5
0%0/5
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Ancientban
48%33/69
59%37/63
57%116/203
49%103/211
58%7/12
71%5/7
0%0/5
50%20/40
90%18/20
25%5/20
Dust2ban
52%162/309
54%182/335
42%43/103
42%34/81
53%33/62
85%28/33
10%3/29
39%7/18
86%6/7
9%1/11
Anubisban
40%28/70
51%39/76
36%15/42
56%27/48
50%7/14
71%5/7
29%2/7
63%5/8
80%4/5
0%0/3
Nukeban
57%122/215
52%113/217
58%135/231
45%97/214
45%20/44
100%20/20
13%3/24
55%24/44
79%19/24
10%2/20
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
FURIA wins more pistol rounds: 49% vs 44%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (72% vs 74%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (23% vs 22%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FURIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/77 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 77 maps they won, 21 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 downvs VitalityMiragefrom 7 downvs The MongolZDust2from 7 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 7 downvs AuroraMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/63 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 63 maps they lost, 21 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13vs AuroraDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs FalconsNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs VitalityOverpassled 6 · lost 10-13vs SpiritMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs The MongolZInferno16-12vs SpiritMirage16-13vs FUTOverpass22-18vs FalconsMirage16-14vs PARIVISIONDust216-14
GamerLegion
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/63 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 19 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 downvs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 7 downvs BC.GameInfernofrom 5 downvs VenomNukefrom 4 downvs AuroraInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/53 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 53 maps they lost, 17 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs B8Nukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs AcendMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs VitalityDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs G2Infernoled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZNukeled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs VenomTrain16-14vs AuroraInferno16-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirage16-12vs AvantiAncient16-12vs SINNERSMirage16-19