Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Nemesis vs FORZE Reload · match preview
Nemesis vs FORZE Reload: CS2 match prediction · 1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier
Nemesis
World #44 · 63-36
VS
2026-09-07 09:00 UTC
1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3 · ★
FORZE Reload
World #85 · 25-23
74%26%
66%
1.42.66Market · 2 books
34%The call · high confidence
Nemesis are favoured: our model gives them 74% against FORZE Reload. Bookmakers lean Nemesis at 66%. Strength clearly favours Nemesis, record slightly favours Nemesis, firepower slightly favours FORZE Reload, head-to-head clearly favours Nemesis.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NemesispullFORZE Reload
Team strength1681
156474/26 NEM
Track record63–36
25–2360/40 NEM
Recent formLWLWW
WLWLW55/45 FOR
Roster rating1.12
1.1768/32 FOR
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 NEM
Bookmakers imply 66% for Nemesis (1.4 / 2.66); we land 8 points higher at 74%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (236 maps of Nemesis, 113 of FORZE Reload). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Nemesis leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Nemesis to beat FORZE Reload, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Nemesis
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemesis
FORZE Reload
K27#372-80-2
Nemesis vs K27
Mar 23LNuke21-25Dust214-16Mar 12LNuke4-13Dust213-9Mirage6-13Feb 10LAncient10-13Dust25-13+1 earlier meeting
FORZE Reload vs K27
Mar 3LAncient9-13Dust24-13
Acend#462-30-2
FORZE Reload vs Acend
Jan 22LAncient9-13Overpass4-13
Nuclear TigeRES#542-82-0
Nemesis vs Nuclear TigeRES
Aug 31LDust213-5Inferno7-13Jun 17LNuke13-10Dust29-13Ancient7-13Feb 14LAncient7-13Inferno9-13+1 earlier meeting
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
Aug 24WDust213-9Anubis13-3
Nemiga#635-70-2
Nemesis vs Nemiga
Sep 5LMirage1-13Ancient7-13Apr 1WOverpass4-13Nuke13-7Dust213-9Mar 24LNuke5-13Overpass13-10Dust210-13+2 earlier meetings
FORZE Reload vs Nemiga
Aug 22LNuke11-13Anubis9-13COLColor#682-00-2
Nemesis vs Color
Aug 22WDust213-11Inferno13-4FORZE Reload vs Color
Aug 29LMirage10-13Dust210-13
Eternal Fire#700-22-1
Nemesis vs Eternal Fire
Mar 14LDust211-13Ancient4-13FORZE Reload vs Eternal Fire
Jan 22WMirage8-13Ancient13-9Dust213-11
ex-Zero Tenacity#742-12-0
Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Mar 17WInferno9-13Nuke13-9Mirage13-8FORZE Reload vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Feb 19WDust213-9Mirage13-7
WW#823-20-2
FORZE Reload vs WW
Feb 16LDust24-13Overpass6-13Firepower
roster ratingsNemesis · avg 1.12 · top +0.07
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nemesis vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEMFOR
AnubisNEM ban0%0-171%5-2
InfernoFOR ban55%18-150%0-1
NukeNEM pick70%33-1465%11-6
AncientFOR pick62%34-2145%10-12
CacheNEM ban0%0-275%3-1
FORZE Reload on Cache
W
DONSTU13–810d agoW
Revise16–1221d agoL
benched gods6–1325d agoWDONSTU13–626d agoMirageFOR ban60%21-1443%10-13
Dust2decider62%28-1759%16-11
Each team's usual first ban: Nemesis Anubis · FORZE Reload Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Nemesis63%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Nemesis 57% · Ancient: Nemesis 65% clear · Dust2: Nemesis 53% toss-upWhyNemesis hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNemesis 63%: 2-0 37%, 2-1 25% · FORZE Reload 37%: 2-1 22%, 2-0 15%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Nemesis 63%Nemesis are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Nemesis 2-0.37% FORZE Reload
Nuke
Nemesis57%FORZE Reload43%
33-14record11-6
70%win65%
59%CT win51%
50%T win54%
49%pistol47%
89%convert75%
Ancient
Nemesis65%FORZE Reload35%
34-21record10-12
62%win45%
56%CT win43%
52%T win53%
56%pistol41%
90%convert83%
Dust2
Nemesis53%FORZE Reload47%
28-17record16-11
62%win59%
53%CT win56%
51%T win48%
50%pistol59%
80%convert91%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NEMct
NEMt
FORct
FORt
NEMpistol
NEMconv
NEMeco
FORpistol
FORconv
FOReco
Nukepool
59%269/455
50%269/539
51%91/177
54%100/186
49%46/94
89%41/46
35%17/48
47%16/34
75%12/16
22%4/18
Ancientpool
56%295/527
52%317/615
43%104/242
53%131/249
56%62/110
90%55/61
35%17/48
41%18/44
83%15/18
12%3/26
Dust2pool
53%274/518
51%222/434
56%153/274
48%142/296
50%45/90
80%36/45
20%9/45
59%32/54
91%29/32
27%6/22
Anubisban
45%5/11
42%5/12
51%40/78
68%40/59
0%0/2
n/a
50%1/2
50%7/14
100%7/7
14%1/7
Infernoban
51%182/357
53%177/336
50%6/12
22%2/9
47%31/66
61%19/31
31%11/35
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Cacheban
35%7/20
35%7/20
53%24/45
53%20/38
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
63%5/8
100%5/5
100%3/3
Mirageban
55%205/375
48%162/339
43%102/235
51%122/238
50%35/70
77%27/35
11%4/35
46%21/46
86%18/21
12%3/25
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Nemesis 52%, FORZE Reload 50%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (87% vs 85%). Lose the pistol → Nemesis fight back to win the next round more often (30% vs 20%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nemesis
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/142 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 142 maps they won, 38 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs OGAncientfrom 8 downvs GenOneDust2from 6 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs INOX DivisionInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/88 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 88 maps they lost, 23 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19vs NemigaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs 100 ThievesAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs TDKOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OGAncientfrom 8 down · won 22-20
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSInferno18-22vs BIG AcademyDust219-16vs GenOneDust216-13vs Inner CircleMirage19-16vs MUERTAInferno14-16
FORZE Reload
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/57 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 57 maps they won, 21 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs WHITEBIRDAncientfrom 7 downvs FAVBETAnubisfrom 6 downvs ARCREDNukefrom 5 downvs MASONICAncientfrom 5 downvs WATERMELONAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/56 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 22 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UrsaMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs NemigaNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs ColorDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs MASONICTrainled 5 · lost 13-16vs SangalAncientled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WHITEBIRDAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UrsaMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs MASONICTrain13-16vs STATENuke16-12vs ARCREDNuke19-17vs los kogutosAnubis16-14vs MASONICAncient28-26