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Predictions / Nemiga vs Color · match preview
Nemiga vs Color: CS2 match prediction · 1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier
Nemiga
World #63 · 64-30
VS
2026-09-08 12:00 UTC
1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Color
World #68 · 13-7
67%33%
57%
1.622.18Market · 2 books
43%The call
Nemiga are favoured: our model gives them 67% against Color. Bookmakers lean Nemiga at 57%. Strength slightly favours Nemiga, form clearly favours Nemiga, firepower clearly favours Nemiga.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NemigapullColor
Team strength1658
159563/37 NEM
Track record64–30
13–751/49 NEM
Recent formWWWWW
LWLLL74/26 NEM
Roster rating1.13
1.188/12 NEM
Bookmakers imply 57% for Nemiga (1.62 / 2.18); we land 10 points higher at 67%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 92% our own signal (228 maps of Nemiga, 47 of Color).
Bottom line: Nemiga to beat Color, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Nemiga
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#280-21-2
Nemiga vs HOTU
Sep 2LAncient14-16Cache9-13Color vs HOTU
Sep 1LDust213-10Cache7-13Anubis22-25
Nemesis#447-50-2
Nemiga vs Nemesis
Sep 5WMirage13-1Ancient13-7Apr 1LOverpass13-4Nuke7-13Dust29-13Mar 24WNuke13-5Overpass10-13Dust213-10+2 earlier meetings
Color vs Nemesis
Aug 22LDust211-13Inferno4-13
Nuclear TigeRES#543-71-2
Nemiga vs Nuclear TigeRES
Aug 28LNuke10-13Ancient14-16May 20LAncient7-13Dust211-13Mar 6LDust211-13Ancient16-13Anubis5-13+1 earlier meeting
Color vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 1LDust213-9Inferno2-13Ancient8-13
Metizport#842-11-2
Nemiga vs Metizport
Mar 15WNuke10-13Ancient13-2Overpass13-11Color vs Metizport
Aug 20LMirage11-13Inferno13-8Cache11-13
FORZE Reload#852-02-0
Nemiga vs FORZE Reload
Aug 22WNuke13-11Anubis13-9Color vs FORZE Reload
Aug 29WMirage13-10Dust213-10
The Last Resort#1132-02-0
Nemiga vs The Last Resort
Mar 17WNuke13-5Anubis13-3Color vs The Last Resort
Aug 18WAncient16-13Dust213-2
SPARTA4-02-3
Firepower
roster ratingsNemiga · avg 1.13 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nemiga vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEMCOL
InfernoNEM ban100%1-040%2-3
Nemiga on Inferno
Wex-RUBY13–65mo agoNukeCOL ban58%19-14n/a0g
AnubisNEM pick75%27-967%4-2
Dust2COL pick55%23-1969%9-4
MirageNEM ban61%19-1278%7-2
AncientCOL ban59%29-2063%5-3
Cachedecider33%1-233%2-4
Each team's usual first ban: Nemiga Inferno · Color Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Nemiga51%to win the seriesiMap edgesAnubis: Nemiga 63% · Dust2: Color 62% · Cache: Nemiga 51% toss-upWhyNemiga hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNemiga 51%: 2-1 27%, 2-0 24% · Color 49%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Nemiga 51%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Nemiga only lead because their Anubis is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.49% Color
Anubis
Nemiga63%Color37%
27-9record4-2
75%win67%
62%CT win50%
55%T win67%
56%pistol33%
79%convert100%
Dust2
Nemiga38%Color62%
23-19record9-4
55%win69%
51%CT win55%
54%T win55%
48%pistol58%
83%convert93%
Cache
Nemiga51%Color49%
1-2record2-4
33%win33%
56%CT win54%
38%T win35%
67%pistol33%
100%convert75%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NEMct
NEMt
COLct
COLt
NEMpistol
NEMconv
NEMeco
COLpistol
COLconv
COLeco
Anubispool
62%219/353
55%196/358
50%28/56
67%48/72
56%40/72
79%31/39
16%5/32
33%4/12
100%4/4
13%1/8
Dust2pool
51%224/440
54%233/430
55%71/128
55%86/156
48%40/84
83%33/40
23%10/44
58%15/26
93%14/15
9%1/11
Cachepool
56%20/36
38%13/34
54%35/65
35%19/54
67%4/6
100%4/4
0%0/2
33%4/12
75%3/4
0%0/8
Infernoban
71%5/7
67%8/12
53%18/34
35%19/54
100%2/2
100%2/2
n/a
50%5/10
60%3/5
40%2/5
Nukeban
53%203/380
47%151/320
n/a
n/a
55%36/66
78%28/36
10%3/30
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
53%175/331
52%151/290
50%47/94
60%63/105
61%38/62
84%32/38
13%3/24
56%10/18
90%9/10
38%3/8
Ancientban
55%286/518
51%273/532
58%42/73
53%49/93
46%45/98
78%35/45
23%12/53
56%9/16
67%6/9
14%1/7
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Nemiga wins more pistol rounds: 52% vs 46%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Color usually win the next round too (91% vs 82%). Lose the pistol → Nemiga fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 7%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nemiga
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i37/140 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 140 maps they won, 37 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 downvs BET-MAnubisfrom 7 downvs ex-RUBYAncientfrom 7 downvs FOKUSMiragefrom 7 downvs 1winOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/82 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 82 maps they lost, 23 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13vs 1winMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs HOTUAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs ARCREDAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs WWDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs KOLESIEDust216-14vs ARCREDAncient12-16vs K27Anubis12-16vs mix52Nuke20-22vs GoodGame ClubOverpass16-14
Color
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/29 (14%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 29 maps they won, 4 (14%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 14% of their wins were comebacks, not 14% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadDust2from 6 downvs The Last ResortAncientfrom 4 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 4 downvs EACAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/18 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 18 maps they lost, 5 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTADust2led 5 · lost 19-22vs SPARTAMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs B8Ancientled 5 · lost 10-13vs MetizportCacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs HOTUAnubisled 3 · lost 22-25
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadDust2from 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTADust2led 5 · lost 19-22
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs SPARTADust219-22vs The Last ResortAncient16-13vs HOTUAnubis22-25vs EACAnubis14-16