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Predictions / WW vs NOVAQ · match preview
WW vs NOVAQ: CS2 match prediction · 1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier
WW
World #82 · 44-33
VS
2026-09-08 17:30 UTC
1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
NOVAQ
World #92 · 18-14
65%35%
66%
1.412.73Market · 2 books
34%The call
WW are favoured: our model gives them 65% against NOVAQ. Bookmakers lean WW at 66%. Strength slightly favours WW, form slightly favours NOVAQ.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
WWpullNOVAQ
Team strength1594
152065/35 WW
Track record44–33
18–1455/45 WW
Recent formLLWWW
LWWWW60/40 NOV
Roster rating1.1
0.9151/49 WW
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 66% for WW (1.41 / 2.73) and we land at 65%, the same read. This read is 95% our own signal (193 maps of WW, 79 of NOVAQ).
Bottom line: WW to beat NOVAQ, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
WW
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#281-21-2
WW vs HOTU
Apr 3LMirage4-13Nuke13-8Dust211-13NOVAQ vs HOTU
Jan 3LMirage2-13Dust26-13Overpass16-13
Nemesis#442-30-2
NOVAQ vs Nemesis
Feb 22LDust29-13Nuke8-13
Nemiga#636-52-1
WW vs Nemiga
May 29WAnubis2-13Mirage13-10Dust216-14Apr 4WMirage13-2Anubis8-13Dust213-7Mar 12WDust213-11Anubis10-13Overpass13-10+1 earlier meeting
NOVAQ vs Nemiga
Feb 22WOverpass7-13Mirage13-6Ancient13-10
Omega#1032-05-5
WW vs Omega
Feb 18WMirage13-1Dust213-3NOVAQ vs Omega
Jul 25WAncient13-8Inferno13-11Mar 15LNuke9-13Mirage6-13Mar 3LAncient13-10Mirage3-13Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
Lazer Cats#1484-12-1
NOVAQ vs Lazer Cats
Mar 7WAncient10-13Dust216-12Mirage13-6
ENCE Academy1-22-1
WW vs ENCE Academy
Mar 1LMirage13-7Anubis13-16Nuke9-13NOVAQ vs ENCE Academy
Mar 6WNuke7-13Ancient13-9Mirage13-7
Oxuji0-22-1
WW vs Oxuji
Mar 2LDust24-13Nuke6-13NOVAQ vs Oxuji
Mar 5WAncient13-10Nuke4-13Dust213-5
illwill2-10-2
WW vs illwill
Apr 1WNuke10-13Mirage16-14Dust213-10NOVAQ vs illwill
Mar 14LDust29-13Nuke4-13Firepower
roster ratingsWW · avg 1.1 · top +0.2
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, WW vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapWWNOV
AncientWW ban0%0-367%14-7
AnubisNOV ban35%6-110%0-1
Dust2WW pick63%39-2347%9-10
InfernoNOV pick39%7-1157%4-3
CacheWW ban33%1-2n/a0g
NOVAQ on Cache
no recent maps
NukeNOV ban52%16-1525%2-6
Each team's usual first ban: WW Ancient · NOVAQ Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
WW61%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: WW 65% · Inferno: NOVAQ 65% clear · Mirage: WW 71% clearWhyWW hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesWW 61%: 2-1 39%, 2-0 23% · NOVAQ 39%: 2-0 23%, 2-1 16%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
WW 61%WW are the clearer side here: the most likely result is WW 2-1.39% NOVAQ
Dust2
WW65%NOVAQ35%
39-23record9-10
63%win47%
52%CT win47%
55%T win47%
48%pistol53%
78%convert85%
Inferno
WW35%NOVAQ65%
7-11record4-3
39%win57%
47%CT win48%
47%T win49%
50%pistol64%
83%convert67%
Mirage
WW71%NOVAQ29%
30-13record7-8
70%win47%
60%CT win55%
53%T win50%
59%pistol57%
86%convert94%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
WWct
WWt
NOVct
NOVt
WWpistol
WWconv
WWeco
NOVpistol
NOVconv
NOVeco
Dust2pool
52%294/570
55%381/689
47%82/175
47%94/201
48%59/124
78%46/59
18%12/65
53%20/38
85%17/20
24%4/17
Infernopool
47%101/216
47%83/176
48%39/82
49%39/79
50%18/36
83%15/18
11%2/18
64%9/14
67%6/9
20%1/5
Miragepool
60%230/382
53%231/439
55%86/157
50%68/137
59%51/86
86%44/51
17%6/35
57%17/30
94%16/17
23%3/13
Ancientban
42%15/36
49%17/35
49%108/220
55%122/223
17%1/6
0%0/1
0%0/5
50%21/42
71%15/21
29%6/21
Anubisban
49%95/192
44%80/180
8%1/12
0%0/2
53%18/34
83%15/18
6%1/16
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
Cacheban
64%23/36
33%8/24
n/a
n/a
50%3/6
67%2/3
0%0/3
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
57%202/354
45%132/295
47%44/94
38%26/69
52%32/62
90%28/31
23%7/30
31%5/16
40%2/5
18%2/11
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
NOVAQ wins more pistol rounds: 56% vs 52%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (82% vs 85%). Lose the pistol → NOVAQ fight back to win the next round more often (23% vs 17%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
WW
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/108 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 108 maps they won, 31 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs beznegativaDust2from 10 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 8 downvs K27Miragefrom 8 downvs HOTUNukefrom 7 downvs LeoAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/85 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 85 maps they lost, 27 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ENCE AcademyAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs KOLESIENukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs HOTUDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs ECSTATICInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs G2 AresDust2led 6 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs beznegativaDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ENCE AcademyAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs ARCREDNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYDust216-14vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs ENCE AcademyAnubis13-16vs LeoNuke19-17
NOVAQ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/40 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 40 maps they won, 13 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs Rune EatersMiragefrom 8 downvs HOTUOverpassfrom 6 downvs OmegaAncientfrom 6 downvs WATERMELONAncientfrom 5 downvs ALTAYInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/39 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 39 maps they lost, 10 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The HunsAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs illwillDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 5 · lost 7-13vs mix52Dust2led 4 · lost 11-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Rune EatersMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The HunsAncientled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs HOTUOverpass16-13vs ALTAYInferno19-17vs OmegaMirage16-19vs Lazer CatsDust216-12vs ex-Zero TenacityNuke14-16