INOX Division are favoured: our model gives them 59% against Nuclear TigeRES. Bookmakers lean Nuclear TigeRES at 58%. Record slightly favours INOX Division, form slightly favours INOX Division, firepower slightly favours INOX Division.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INOX DivisionpullNuclear TigeRES
Team strength1685
166155/45 INO
Track record53–22
68–3858/42 INO
Recent formWLWWL
WLLLW60/40 INO
Roster rating1.16
1.1262/38 INO
Bookmakers imply 42% for INOX Division (2.2 / 1.6); we land 17 points higher at 59%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (181 maps of INOX Division, 244 of Nuclear TigeRES).
Bottom line: INOX Division to beat Nuclear TigeRES, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INOX Division vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: INOX Division Mirage · Nuclear TigeRES Overpass.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Nuclear TigeRES62%to win the seriesiMap edgesInferno: INOX Division 51% toss-up · Ancient: Nuclear TigeRES 60% · Cache: Nuclear TigeRES 65% clearWhyNuclear TigeRES hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesINOX Division 38%: 2-0 20%, 2-1 18% · Nuclear TigeRES 62%: 2-1 33%, 2-0 30% series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
INOX Division 38%Nuclear TigeRES are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Nuclear TigeRES 2-1.62% Nuclear TigeRES
Inferno
INOX Division51%
Nuclear TigeRES49%
26-13record16-8
67%win67%
56%CT win58%
54%T win54%
49%pistol65%
76%convert84%
Ancient
INOX Division40%
Nuclear TigeRES60%
18-10record46-17
64%win73%
59%CT win57%
52%T win55%
61%pistol50%
71%convert81%
Cache
INOX Division35%
Nuclear TigeRES65%
5-5record3-0
50%win100%
48%CT win72%
49%T win41%
60%pistol50%
83%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map
ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
INOct
INOt
NUCct
NUCt
INOpistol
INOconv
INOeco
NUCpistol
NUCconv
NUCeco
Infernopool
56%211/380
54%241/446
58%132/229
54%146/268
49%38/78
76%29/38
35%14/40
65%31/48
84%26/31
6%1/17
Ancientpool
59%186/316
52%128/248
57%339/600
55%397/723
61%34/56
71%24/34
18%4/22
50%63/126
81%51/63
24%15/63
Cachepool
48%58/120
49%46/94
72%26/36
41%12/29
60%12/20
83%10/12
0%0/8
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
Mirageban
n/a
n/a
57%182/318
40%102/253
n/a
n/a
n/a
57%31/54
97%30/31
13%3/23
Nukeban
62%219/352
55%247/451
56%244/439
41%155/381
50%39/78
79%31/39
36%14/39
46%35/76
69%24/35
15%6/41
Anubisban
52%83/161
55%82/148
52%218/416
60%268/447
40%12/30
100%12/12
39%7/18
47%40/86
88%35/40
13%6/46
Dust2ban
64%259/406
52%165/318
47%224/477
53%256/487
58%42/72
86%36/42
27%8/30
60%55/92
87%48/55
14%5/37
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (INOX Division 55%, Nuclear TigeRES 54%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → Nuclear TigeRES usually win the next round too (82% vs 75%). Lose the pistol → INOX Division fight back to win the next round more often (26% vs 19%).