Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress · match preview
ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
ex-RUSTEC
World #– · 24-17
VS
TBD
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Fortress
World #209 · 5-17
84%16%
91%
1.0210Market · 20 books
9%The call · high confidence
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 84% against Fortress. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 91%. Strength clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, record clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-RUSTECpullFortress
Team strength1540
138679/21 EX-
Track record24–17
5–1774/26 EX-
Recent formLWLLW
LWLLL54/46 EX-
Roster rating1.18
0.998/2 EX-
Bookmakers imply 91% for ex-RUSTEC (1.02 / 10); we land 7 points lower at 84%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (197 maps of ex-RUSTEC, 46 of Fortress).
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat Fortress, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
ex-RUSTEC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bushido Wildcats#690-20-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22Fortress vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 16LInferno6-13Mirage8-13
Inner Circle Academy#1160-42-3
Fortress vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 31LAnubis10-13Ancient5-13Jul 26WCache10-13Anubis13-11Ancient16-14
Noir Verse#1492-10-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Noir Verse
Aug 17WCache13-16Anubis13-9Fortress vs Noir Verse
Aug 3LAncient10-13Dust23-13
ex-MANA#1504-10-2
Fortress vs ex-MANA
Aug 18LAncient3-13Mirage4-13
SAW Youngsters#1522-10-2
ex-RUSTEC vs SAW Youngsters
Aug 12WNuke13-9Inferno6-13Anubis16-14Fortress vs SAW Youngsters
Jul 21LAncient3-13Inferno2-13Firepower
roster ratingsex-RUSTEC · avg 1.18 · top +0.18
Fortress · avg 0.9 · top +0.05
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brand | 41 | 0.82 | 72.8 | 65.6% | 54% | 0.95 |
| GrEnNiE | 46 | 0.81 | 68.1 | 64.2% | 59% | 0.95 |
| BqreBedre | 43 | 0.8 | 66.4 | 66.5% | 47% | 0.91 |
| As K | 46 | 0.72 | 64.5 | 61.9% | 56% | 0.85 |
| K1ngShield | 36 | 0.77 | 61.4 | 60.7% | 45% | 0.84 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-RUSTEC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Fortress habitually bans Mirage, ex-RUSTEC's strongest maps (Mirage, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 13/22), not an opponent read, so expect ex-RUSTEC to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapEX-FOR
AncientEX- bann/a0g30%3-7
ex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageFOR ban60%6-40%0-5
Dust2EX- pick57%16-1250%1-1
InfernoFOR pick45%5-625%2-6
CacheEX- ban40%4-614%1-6
AnubisFOR ban63%12-740%2-3
Each team's usual first ban: ex-RUSTEC Ancient · Fortress Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ex-RUSTEC68%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: ex-RUSTEC 52% toss-up · Inferno: ex-RUSTEC 67% clear · Nuke: ex-RUSTEC 67% clearWhyex-RUSTEC hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesex-RUSTEC 68%: 2-0 35%, 2-1 33% · Fortress 32%: 2-1 16%, 2-0 16%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
ex-RUSTEC 68%ex-RUSTEC are the clearer side here: the most likely result is ex-RUSTEC 2-0.32% Fortress
Dust2
ex-RUSTEC52%Fortress48%
16-12record1-1
57%win50%
55%CT win38%
50%T win58%
46%pistol50%
81%convert100%
Inferno
ex-RUSTEC67%Fortress33%
5-6record2-6
45%win25%
50%CT win44%
39%T win37%
41%pistol56%
44%convert100%
Nuke
ex-RUSTEC67%Fortress33%
7-11record1-5
39%win17%
51%CT win35%
46%T win32%
47%pistol42%
82%convert80%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
EX-ct
EX-t
FORct
FORt
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
FORpistol
FORconv
FOReco
Dust2pool
55%150/273
50%154/311
38%9/24
58%7/12
46%26/56
81%21/26
20%6/30
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Infernopool
50%62/123
39%38/98
44%30/68
37%28/76
41%9/22
44%4/9
31%4/13
56%9/16
100%9/9
0%0/6
Nukepool
51%95/188
46%91/200
35%25/72
32%14/44
47%17/36
82%14/17
5%1/19
42%5/12
80%4/5
0%0/7
Ancientban
n/a
n/a
35%27/78
38%44/115
n/a
n/a
n/a
30%6/20
67%4/6
14%2/14
Mirageban
55%64/117
48%49/102
27%16/60
32%10/31
40%8/20
75%6/8
25%3/12
60%6/10
67%4/6
0%0/4
Cacheban
50%58/115
51%51/100
43%20/47
30%25/84
50%10/20
90%9/10
30%3/10
43%6/14
67%4/6
13%1/8
Anubisban
49%96/194
57%107/189
32%19/60
57%27/47
55%21/38
95%20/21
24%4/17
40%4/10
100%4/4
33%2/6
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Fortress wins more pistol rounds: 50% vs 46%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Fortress usually win the next round too (94% vs 75%). Lose the pistol → ex-RUSTEC fight back to win the next round more often (18% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/50 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 14 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 4 downvs ButterflyNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/46 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 13 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs ButterflyCacheled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-MANANukefrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Fortress
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/12 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 3 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 downvs Sashi AcademyOverpassfrom 7 downvs Inner Circle AcademyAnubisfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/34 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 34 maps they lost, 10 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13vs Inner Circle AcademyCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs InvictaInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16vs TrickedOverpassled 3 · lost 8-13vs InvictaMirageled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs InvictaInferno14-16vs Sashi AcademyOverpass16-12vs Strael BoraAncient16-14vs EnjoyNuke16-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAncient16-14