Matches / Upcoming / ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress
ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
ex-RUSTEC
World #– · 24-17
VS
TBD
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Fortress
World #209 · 5-17
84%16%
91%
1.0210Market · 20 books
9%The call · high confidence
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 84% against Fortress. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 91%. Strength clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, record clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Nuke
Recent form
ex-RUSTEC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bushido Wildcats#690-20-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22Fortress vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 16LInferno6-13Mirage8-13
Inner Circle Academy#1160-42-3
Fortress vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 31LAnubis10-13Ancient5-13Jul 26WCache10-13Anubis13-11Ancient16-14
Noir Verse#1492-10-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Noir Verse
Aug 17WCache13-16Anubis13-9Fortress vs Noir Verse
Aug 3LAncient10-13Dust23-13
ex-MANA#1504-10-2
Fortress vs ex-MANA
Aug 18LAncient3-13Mirage4-13
SAW Youngsters#1522-10-2
ex-RUSTEC vs SAW Youngsters
Aug 12WNuke13-9Inferno6-13Anubis16-14Fortress vs SAW Youngsters
Jul 21LAncient3-13Inferno2-13Firepower
roster ratingsex-RUSTEC · avg 1.18 · top +0.18
Fortress · avg 0.9 · top +0.05
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brand | 41 | 0.82 | 72.8 | 65.6% | 54% | 0.95 |
| GrEnNiE | 46 | 0.81 | 68.1 | 64.2% | 59% | 0.95 |
| BqreBedre | 43 | 0.8 | 66.4 | 66.5% | 47% | 0.91 |
| As K | 46 | 0.72 | 64.5 | 61.9% | 56% | 0.85 |
| K1ngShield | 36 | 0.77 | 61.4 | 60.7% | 45% | 0.84 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-RUSTEC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Fortress habitually bans Mirage, ex-RUSTEC's strongest maps (Mirage, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 13/22), not an opponent read, so expect ex-RUSTEC to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapEX-FOR
AncientEX- bann/a0g30%3-7
ex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageFOR ban60%6-40%0-5
Dust2EX- pick57%16-1250%1-1
InfernoFOR pick45%5-625%2-6
CacheEX- ban40%4-614%1-6
AnubisFOR ban63%12-740%2-3
Each team's usual first ban: ex-RUSTEC Ancient · Fortress Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ex-RUSTEC68%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: ex-RUSTEC 52% toss-up · Inferno: ex-RUSTEC 67% clear · Nuke: ex-RUSTEC 67% clearWhyex-RUSTEC hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesex-RUSTEC 68%: 2-0 35%, 2-1 33% · Fortress 32%: 2-1 16%, 2-0 16%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
ex-RUSTEC 68%ex-RUSTEC are the clearer side here: the most likely result is ex-RUSTEC 2-0.32% Fortress
Dust2
ex-RUSTEC52%Fortress48%
16-12record1-1
57%win50%
55%CT win38%
50%T win58%
46%pistol50%
81%convert100%
Inferno
ex-RUSTEC67%Fortress33%
5-6record2-6
45%win25%
50%CT win44%
39%T win37%
41%pistol56%
44%convert100%
Nuke
ex-RUSTEC67%Fortress33%
7-11record1-5
39%win17%
51%CT win35%
46%T win32%
47%pistol42%
82%convert80%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
EX-ct
EX-t
FORct
FORt
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
FORpistol
FORconv
FOReco
Dust2pool
55%150/273
50%154/311
38%9/24
58%7/12
46%26/56
81%21/26
20%6/30
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Infernopool
50%62/123
39%38/98
44%30/68
37%28/76
41%9/22
44%4/9
31%4/13
56%9/16
100%9/9
0%0/6
Nukepool
51%95/188
46%91/200
35%25/72
32%14/44
47%17/36
82%14/17
5%1/19
42%5/12
80%4/5
0%0/7
Ancientban
n/a
n/a
35%27/78
38%44/115
n/a
n/a
n/a
30%6/20
67%4/6
14%2/14
Mirageban
55%64/117
48%49/102
27%16/60
32%10/31
40%8/20
75%6/8
25%3/12
60%6/10
67%4/6
0%0/4
Cacheban
50%58/115
51%51/100
43%20/47
30%25/84
50%10/20
90%9/10
30%3/10
43%6/14
67%4/6
13%1/8
Anubisban
49%96/194
57%107/189
32%19/60
57%27/47
55%21/38
95%20/21
24%4/17
40%4/10
100%4/4
33%2/6
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Fortress wins more pistol rounds: 50% vs 46%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Fortress usually win the next round too (94% vs 75%). Lose the pistol → ex-RUSTEC fight back to win the next round more often (18% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/50 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 14 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 4 downvs ButterflyNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/46 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 13 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs ButterflyCacheled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-MANANukefrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Fortress
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/12 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 3 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 downvs Sashi AcademyOverpassfrom 7 downvs Inner Circle AcademyAnubisfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/34 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 34 maps they lost, 10 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13vs Inner Circle AcademyCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs InvictaInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16vs TrickedOverpassled 3 · lost 8-13vs InvictaMirageled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs InvictaInferno14-16vs Sashi AcademyOverpass16-12vs Strael BoraAncient16-14vs EnjoyNuke16-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAncient16-14
ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress FAQ
Who is favored to win ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress?
ex-RUSTEC are favored with a 84% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress?
Bookmakers price ex-RUSTEC at 1.02 and Fortress at 10 (implied 91% vs 9%).
When do ex-RUSTEC and Fortress play?
ex-RUSTEC vs Fortress is scheduled for a date to be confirmed at NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier.