Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / SPARTA vs BAKS · match preview
SPARTA vs BAKS: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
58%42%
58%
1.592.23Market · 2 books
42%The call
SPARTA are favoured: our model gives them 58% against BAKS. Bookmakers lean SPARTA at 58%. Record slightly favours BAKS.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SPARTApullBAKS
Team strength1600
157556/44 SPA
Track record48–51
12–957/43 BAK
Recent formLWWWL
WLWWL52/48 BAK
Roster rating1.091.1150/50
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 58% for SPARTA (1.59 / 2.23) and we land at 58%, the same read. This read is 93% our own signal (247 maps of SPARTA, 52 of BAKS).
Bottom line: SPARTA to beat BAKS, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSPARTA · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRAVIS★ | 1.09 | 74.3 | 73.4% | 58% | 1.15 |
| El1an | 1.24 | 77 | 72.1% | 29% | 1.14 |
| glowiing | 1.07 | 82.5 | 74.6% | 56% | 1.14 |
| sugaR | 0.94 | 71.3 | 69.3% | 59% | 1.04 |
| NickelBack | 0.82 | 67.3 | 69.9% | 50% | 0.96 |
BAKS · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| whisper★ | 1.16 | 77.7 | 73% | 63% | 1.2 |
| turbo | 1.08 | 76 | 73.8% | 63% | 1.18 |
| Norwi | 0.96 | 73.2 | 69.6% | 48% | 1.07 |
| danistzz | 1.14 | 69.8 | 75.6% | 39% | 1.06 |
| xdENiSZERA | 1.04 | 71.2 | 74% | 55% | 1.04 |
Recent form
SPARTA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsCOLColor#574-40-1
OG#631-22-0
SPARTA vs OG
Aug 20LDust213-16Nuke13-3Mirage1-13BAKS vs OG
Aug 14WMirage13-6Inferno13-11
BET-M#774-42-0
CYBERSHOKE#870-20-2
SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 5LAncient8-13Mirage10-13BAKS vs CYBERSHOKE
Sep 15LCache11-13Dust211-13EX-ex-RUBY#1041-22-1
SPARTA vs ex-RUBY
May 8LMirage7-13Overpass13-8Dust29-13BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5
MOUZ NXT#1368-32-0
SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT
Aug 19WCache13-9Dust213-6Aug 18WAncient7-13Dust213-10Nuke13-7Jul 13WCache14-16Dust213-1Mirage13-4+1 earlier meeting
BAKS vs MOUZ NXT
Aug 30WNuke13-11Dust213-5
TDK2-52-1
Oxuji2-31-2
BAKS vs Oxuji
May 23LInferno9-13Nuke13-9Dust23-13Map lab
BAKS62%to win the Bo3 · most likely BAKS 2-0
If the veto goes
SPARTA 38%how the series ends62% BAKS
15%2-035%
23%2-126%
SPARTA49%21-22vsBAKS51%3-3
49%Win50%
57%CT55%
41%T44%
41%Pistol58%
80%Conv71%
SPARTA31%7-6vsBAKS69%9-3
54%Win75%
51%CT59%
48%T54%
65%Pistol54%
88%Conv92%
SPARTA47%11-10vsBAKS53%4-3
52%Win57%
52%CT49%
48%T50%
57%Pistol50%
71%Conv71%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SPARTAMirageBAKS
57%CT side55%
41%T side44%
41%Pistol58%
80%After win71%
22%After loss20%
SPARTACacheBAKS
51%CT side59%
48%T side54%
65%Pistol54%
88%After win92%
0%After loss18%
SPARTAInfernoBAKS
52%CT side49%
48%T side50%
57%Pistol50%
71%After win71%
22%After loss14%
Pistol rounds49% · 54% · BAKS win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol19% · 17% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, SPARTA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSPABAK
AnubisSPA ban40%2-3n/a0g
SPARTA on Anubis
L
Atreides7–132mo agoL
Bushido Wildcats9–132mo agoWAtreides13–112mo agoLTDK8–137mo agoW
TNT13–107mo agoBAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2BAK ban64%46-2655%6-5
MirageSPA pick49%21-2250%3-3
CacheBAK pick54%7-675%9-3
AncientSPA ban36%14-2580%4-1
NukeBAK ban47%17-1950%5-5
Infernodecider52%11-1057%4-3
Each team's usual first ban: SPARTA Anubis · BAKS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
SPARTA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i46/129 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 129 maps they won, 46 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs GenOneDust2from 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsAncientfrom 7 downvs ColorDust2from 7 downvs LavkedInfernofrom 6 downvs ex-RUBYOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/118 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 118 maps they lost, 34 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionOverpassled 8 · lost 10-13vs ex-Young NinjasDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs TDKDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GenOneDust2from 7 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs MOUZ NXTNuke19-17vs TDKDust217-19vs TDKOverpass16-14vs TDKDust213-16vs BIGAncient17-19
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i7/31 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 31 maps they won, 7 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs K28Dust2from 9 downvs eternal premiumMiragefrom 5 downvs XcityInfernofrom 4 downvs MisaDust2from 4 downvs MOUZ NXTDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/21 (19%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 4 (19%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs CYBERSHOKECacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs TDKDust2led 3 · lost 8-13vs WBTNukeled 3 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K28Dust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs FORZE ReloadNuke19-17