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Predictions / Leo vs PCIFIC · match preview
Leo vs PCIFIC: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
48%52%
53%
1.751.95Market · 6 books
47%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. Bookmakers lean Leo at 53%. Firepower clearly favours PCIFIC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LeopullPCIFIC
Team strength1512
153855/45 PCI
Track record45–47
15–1553/47 PCI
Recent formLWLWL
LWWLL53/47 PCI
Roster rating1.09
1.0673/27 PCI
Bookmakers imply 53% for Leo (1.75 / 1.95); we land 5 points lower at 48%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 94% our own signal (229 maps of Leo, 73 of PCIFIC).
Bottom line: PCIFIC to beat Leo, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLeo · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
PCIFIC · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Leo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#281-20-2
Leo vs HOTU
Mar 13LDust29-13Ancient13-6Nuke20-22PCIFIC vs HOTU
May 29LAnubis3-13Dust28-13
Metizport#680-21-4
Leo vs Metizport
Mar 3LDust210-13Nuke11-13
BRUTE#732-02-1
Leo vs BRUTE
Apr 7WNuke13-7Dust213-3PCIFIC vs BRUTE
Sep 1WDust213-11Nuke13-10Anubis8-13
Bushido Wildcats#767-41-2
Leo vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 15WDust214-16Nuke13-9Cache13-11Aug 20WNuke13-9Mirage3-13Dust213-2Aug 4LNuke6-13Dust213-7Anubis1-13+1 earlier meeting
PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 24LDust213-6Mirage6-13Nuke5-13
Rune Eaters#971-23-3
Leo vs Rune Eaters
Mar 17LOverpass13-5Anubis11-13Dust26-13
MOUZ NXT#1360-24-1
Leo vs MOUZ NXT
Feb 20Lseries0-2
SPARTA3-50-2
Map lab
Leo57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Leo 2-1
If the veto goes
Leo 57%how the series ends43% PCIFIC
27%2-023%
30%2-120%
Leo50%35-27vsPCIFIC50%13-10
56%Win57%
52%CT55%
53%T50%
52%Pistol54%
81%Conv76%
Leo54%6-7vsPCIFIC46%5-7
46%Win42%
48%CT52%
54%T43%
54%Pistol50%
86%Conv67%
Leo59%12-26vsPCIFIC41%2-8
32%Win20%
42%CT33%
47%T47%
45%Pistol50%
79%Conv30%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LeoDust2PCIFIC
52%CT side55%
53%T side50%
52%Pistol54%
81%After win76%
18%After loss10%
LeoInfernoPCIFIC
48%CT side52%
54%T side43%
54%Pistol50%
86%After win67%
33%After loss25%
LeoAnubisPCIFIC
42%CT side33%
47%T side47%
45%Pistol50%
79%After win30%
17%After loss10%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol81% · 64% · Leo keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 14% · Leo fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Leo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLEOPCI
MirageLEO ban50%6-660%6-4
AncientPCI ban46%18-21n/a0g
Leo on Ancient
LLavked2–1310d agoW
The Last Resort13–614d agoL
Phantom0–1320d agoL
Butterfly7–1321d agoW
GenOne13–624d agoL
HAVU8–1326d agoLSPARTA9–1327d agoL
Misa8–131mo agoPCIFIC on Ancient
no recent maps
Dust2LEO pick56%35-2757%13-10
InfernoPCI pick46%6-742%5-7
CacheLEO ban33%2-475%3-1
NukePCI ban61%23-1550%6-6
Each team's usual first ban: Leo Mirage · PCIFIC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/105 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 105 maps they won, 28 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 6 downvs QWENTRYDust2from 6 downvs ASTRALDust2from 5 downvs AimhausDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/108 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 33 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs WWAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs UrsaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs PhantomAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs MisaDust2led 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16
PCIFIC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/35 (46%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 35 maps they won, 16 (46%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 46% of their wins were comebacks, not 46% of all games.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 8 downvs DEPODust2from 6 downvs MOUZ NXTCachefrom 5 downvs KUUSAMODust2from 5 downvs KUUSAMOCachefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/36 (17%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 36 maps they lost, 6 (17%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Fire FluxDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs MetizportNukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs 9INEInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs AtreidesMirageled 4 · lost 14-16vs 9INEDust2led 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Fire FluxDust2led 7 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs Rune EatersInferno22-19vs Fire FluxDust213-16vs AtreidesMirage14-16vs WBT AcademyDust216-19vs WBT AcademyNuke14-16