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Predictions / Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC · match preview
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
Black Phoenix
World #89 · 23-23
VS
2026-09-17 14:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
ex-RUSTEC
World #67 · 29-18
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
33%67%
45%
2.11.7Market · 7 books
55%The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 67% against Black Phoenix. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 55%. Strength slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, form slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, head-to-head clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Black Phoenixpullex-RUSTEC
Team strength1523
156759/41 EX-
Track record23–23
29–1856/44 EX-
Recent formWLLLL
WLWWW65/35 EX-
Roster rating1.03
1.1295/5 EX-
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 EX-
Bookmakers imply 45% for Black Phoenix (2.1 / 1.7); we land 12 points lower at 33%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (114 maps of Black Phoenix, 211 of ex-RUSTEC). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ex-RUSTEC leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat Black Phoenix, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-RUSTEC · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.19 | 82.2 | 74.1% | 68% | 1.23 |
| youka | 1.27 | 73.9 | 72.6% | 36% | 1.21 |
| shalfey | 1.11 | 75.6 | 74.5% | 60% | 1.15 |
| jakekeS | 0.93 | 69.8 | 72.9% | 56% | 1.02 |
| Brilliance | 0.85 | 70.2 | 69.5% | 56% | 0.99 |
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Sashi#551-22-1
Black Phoenix vs Sashi
Aug 2LCache6-13Dust213-2Nuke8-13ex-RUSTEC vs Sashi
Aug 28WDust213-5Cache10-13Nuke13-5
INOX Division#591-20-4
Black Phoenix vs INOX Division
Sep 10LNuke4-13Dust213-1Inferno5-13
Butterfly#743-31-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Butterfly
Aug 5LCache10-13Nuke16-14Dust210-13
FORZE Reload#750-20-4
Black Phoenix vs FORZE Reload
Aug 27LMirage10-13Dust210-13
Bushido Wildcats#762-10-2
Black Phoenix vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 19WDust213-11Mirage4-13Nuke13-7ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22
WW#811-22-0
Black Phoenix vs WW
Sep 14LDust211-13Mirage13-11Anubis3-13ex-RUSTEC vs WW
Aug 6WAnubis13-9Dust216-12
ex-Zero Tenacity#820-40-2
ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18LCache5-13Mirage8-13
UNiTY#921-42-1
ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY
Jul 28WDust213-6Inferno8-13Mirage13-8Map lab
ex-RUSTEC70%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUSTEC 2-0
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 30%how the series ends70% ex-RUSTEC
4%2-053%
25%2-118%
Black Phoenix41%17-16vsex-RUSTEC59%19-12
52%Win61%
54%CT56%
50%T50%
48%Pistol48%
91%Conv77%
Black Phoenix11%2-12vsex-RUSTEC89%14-7
14%Win67%
39%CT50%
34%T59%
29%Pistol57%
25%Conv96%
Black Phoenix59%9-8vsex-RUSTEC41%9-12
53%Win43%
60%CT54%
39%T44%
44%Pistol52%
93%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixDust2ex-RUSTEC
54%CT side56%
50%T side50%
48%Pistol48%
91%After win77%
15%After loss19%
Black PhoenixAnubisex-RUSTEC
39%CT side50%
34%T side59%
29%Pistol57%
25%After win96%
15%After loss28%
Black PhoenixNukeex-RUSTEC
60%CT side54%
39%T side44%
44%Pistol52%
93%After win86%
5%After loss5%
Pistol rounds43% · 52% · ex-RUSTEC win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 86% · ex-RUSTEC keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol12% · 17% · ex-RUSTEC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBLAEX-
AncientBLA ban0%0-1n/a0g
Black Phoenix on Ancient
LPsychoFace11–139d agoex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoEX- ban64%7-442%5-7
Dust2BLA pick52%17-1661%19-12
AnubisEX- pick14%2-1267%14-7
MirageBLA ban37%7-1254%7-6
CacheEX- ban73%8-350%6-6
Nukedecider53%9-843%9-12
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · ex-RUSTEC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/50 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 18 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/56 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 19 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/60 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 60 maps they won, 17 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs NexusDust2from 6 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/50 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 15 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FortressNukefrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16