Matches / Upcoming / Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
Black Phoenix
World #89 · 23-23
VS
2026-09-17 14:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
ex-RUSTEC
World #67 · 29-18
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
33%67%
45%
2.11.7Market · 7 books
55%The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 67% against Black Phoenix. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 55%. Strength slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, form slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, head-to-head clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Nuke
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-RUSTEC · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.19 | 82.2 | 74.1% | 68% | 1.23 |
| youka | 1.27 | 73.9 | 72.6% | 36% | 1.21 |
| shalfey | 1.11 | 75.6 | 74.5% | 60% | 1.15 |
| jakekeS | 0.93 | 69.8 | 72.9% | 56% | 1.02 |
| Brilliance | 0.85 | 70.2 | 69.5% | 56% | 0.99 |
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Sashi#551-22-1
Black Phoenix vs Sashi
Aug 2LCache6-13Dust213-2Nuke8-13ex-RUSTEC vs Sashi
Aug 28WDust213-5Cache10-13Nuke13-5
INOX Division#591-20-4
Black Phoenix vs INOX Division
Sep 10LNuke4-13Dust213-1Inferno5-13
Butterfly#743-31-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Butterfly
Aug 5LCache10-13Nuke16-14Dust210-13
FORZE Reload#750-20-4
Black Phoenix vs FORZE Reload
Aug 27LMirage10-13Dust210-13
Bushido Wildcats#762-10-2
Black Phoenix vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 19WDust213-11Mirage4-13Nuke13-7ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22
WW#811-22-0
Black Phoenix vs WW
Sep 14LDust211-13Mirage13-11Anubis3-13ex-RUSTEC vs WW
Aug 6WAnubis13-9Dust216-12
ex-Zero Tenacity#820-40-2
ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18LCache5-13Mirage8-13
UNiTY#921-42-1
ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY
Jul 28WDust213-6Inferno8-13Mirage13-8Map lab
ex-RUSTEC70%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUSTEC 2-0
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 30%how the series ends70% ex-RUSTEC
4%2-053%
25%2-118%
Black Phoenix41%17-16vsex-RUSTEC59%19-12
52%Win61%
54%CT56%
50%T50%
48%Pistol48%
91%Conv77%
Black Phoenix11%2-12vsex-RUSTEC89%14-7
14%Win67%
39%CT50%
34%T59%
29%Pistol57%
25%Conv96%
Black Phoenix59%9-8vsex-RUSTEC41%9-12
53%Win43%
60%CT54%
39%T44%
44%Pistol52%
93%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixDust2ex-RUSTEC
54%CT side56%
50%T side50%
48%Pistol48%
91%After win77%
15%After loss19%
Black PhoenixAnubisex-RUSTEC
39%CT side50%
34%T side59%
29%Pistol57%
25%After win96%
15%After loss28%
Black PhoenixNukeex-RUSTEC
60%CT side54%
39%T side44%
44%Pistol52%
93%After win86%
5%After loss5%
Pistol rounds43% · 52% · ex-RUSTEC win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 86% · ex-RUSTEC keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol12% · 17% · ex-RUSTEC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBLAEX-
AncientBLA ban0%0-1n/a0g
Black Phoenix on Ancient
LPsychoFace11–139d agoex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoEX- ban64%7-442%5-7
Dust2BLA pick52%17-1661%19-12
AnubisEX- pick14%2-1267%14-7
MirageBLA ban37%7-1254%7-6
CacheEX- ban73%8-350%6-6
Nukedecider53%9-843%9-12
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · ex-RUSTEC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/50 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 18 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/56 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 19 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/60 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 60 maps they won, 17 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs NexusDust2from 6 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/50 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 15 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FortressNukefrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC FAQ
Who is favored to win Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC?
ex-RUSTEC are favored with a 67% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC?
Bookmakers price Black Phoenix at 2.1 and ex-RUSTEC at 1.7 (implied 45% vs 55%).
When do Black Phoenix and ex-RUSTEC play?
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC is scheduled for 2026-09-17 14:00 UTC at NODWIN Clutch Series 12.