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Predictions / Drama vs Honvéd · match preview
Drama vs Honvéd: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
Drama
World #127 · 7-12
VS
2026-09-18 08:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
Honvéd
World #129 · 29-31
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
61%39%
The call
Drama are favoured: our model gives them 61% against Honvéd. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Drama, firepower slightly favours Drama.
Likely mapsCache · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
DramapullHonvéd
Team strength1491
145458/42 DRA
Track record7–12
29–3153/47 HON
Recent formLLLWW
LLLWL56/44 DRA
Roster rating1.12
1.266/34 DRA
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 91% our own signal (44 maps of Drama, 142 of Honvéd).
Bottom line: Drama to beat Honvéd, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsDrama · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Honvéd · avg 1.2 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Drama
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
INOX Division#591-20-2
Drama vs INOX Division
Sep 15LAncient8-13Nuke13-5Inferno12-16Honvéd vs INOX Division
Aug 22LAncient4-13Inferno9-13
ENCE#1202-01-4
Drama vs ENCE
Sep 13WNuke13-8Mirage13-10
mellren#1301-20-2
Drama vs mellren
Sep 16LNuke13-8Inferno7-13Mirage7-13Honvéd vs mellren
Aug 16LInferno11-13Dust211-13Map lab
Drama55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Drama 2-0
If the veto goes
Drama 55%how the series ends45% Honvéd
35%2-016%
20%2-129%
Drama54%1-0vsHonvéd46%4-7
100%Win36%
58%CT54%
55%T43%
50%Pistol59%
100%Conv92%
Drama65%6-3vsHonvéd35%18-19
67%Win49%
60%CT56%
50%T41%
78%Pistol58%
93%Conv79%
Drama40%5-7vsHonvéd60%9-8
42%Win53%
45%CT53%
47%T45%
29%Pistol65%
86%Conv73%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
DramaCacheHonvéd
58%CT side54%
55%T side43%
50%Pistol59%
100%After win92%
100%After loss0%
DramaMirageHonvéd
60%CT side56%
50%T side41%
78%Pistol58%
93%After win79%
0%After loss10%
DramaAncientHonvéd
45%CT side53%
47%T side45%
29%Pistol65%
86%After win73%
6%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 60% · Honvéd win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol91% · 79% · Drama keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol9% · 6% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Drama vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Honvéd habitually bans Nuke, Drama's strongest maps (Mirage, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 39/62), not an opponent read, so expect Drama to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapDRAHON
AnubisDRA ban0%0-150%4-4
NukeHON ban80%4-160%3-2
CacheDRA pick100%1-036%4-7
MirageHON pick67%6-349%18-19
Dust2DRA ban17%1-551%21-20
InfernoHON ban25%2-631%5-11
Ancientdecider42%5-753%9-8
Each team's usual first ban: Drama Anubis · Honvéd Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Drama
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/19 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 5 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs mellrenNukefrom 6 downvs ENCEMiragefrom 6 downvs ZOTIXNukefrom 5 downvs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/25 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 10 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs FaZeNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs HYPERSPIRITAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs mellrenNukefrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs ZOTIXDust213-16vs fnaticAncient16-14vs SINQUInferno16-19vs INOX DivisionInferno12-16
Honvéd
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/64 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 64 maps they won, 20 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 8 downvs brazylijski luzMiragefrom 6 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 6 downvs Noir VerseDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/74 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 24 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs BebopCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-MANADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs MisaMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs TeletubisieDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs PUREDust216-14vs brazylijski luzAncient19-17vs TNCAncient15-19vs ex-MANAMirage13-16vs GenOneDust213-16