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Predictions / Black Phoenix vs BAKS · match preview
Black Phoenix vs BAKS: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
Black Phoenix
World #89 · 25-23
VS
2026-09-19 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
BAKS
World #83 · 14-10
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
52%48%
46%
2.021.71Market · 7 books
54%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. Bookmakers lean BAKS at 54%. Record slightly favours BAKS, firepower slightly favours Black Phoenix.
Likely mapsDust2 · Cache · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Black PhoenixpullBAKS
Team strength1549
158057/43 BAK
Track record25–23
14–1060/40 BAK
Recent formWWWLL
WWLWL52/48 BLA
Roster rating1.04
1.167/33 BLA
Bookmakers imply 46% for Black Phoenix (2.02 / 1.71); we land 6 points higher at 52%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (119 maps of Black Phoenix, 61 of BAKS).
Bottom line: Black Phoenix to beat BAKS, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BAKS · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| turbo★ | 1.07 | 75.9 | 73.1% | 62% | 1.17 |
| whisper | 1.1 | 75.7 | 72% | 64% | 1.15 |
| Norwi | 0.97 | 73.5 | 69.8% | 48% | 1.08 |
| danistzz | 1.12 | 70.4 | 74.6% | 38% | 1.05 |
| xdENiSZERA | 1.02 | 70.4 | 73.5% | 54% | 1.03 |
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ex-RUSTEC#672-32-1
BAKS vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 18WDust27-13Cache13-10Nuke13-8
FORZE Reload#750-22-0
Black Phoenix vs FORZE Reload
Aug 27LMirage10-13Dust210-13BAKS vs FORZE Reload
Sep 13WCache13-8Nuke19-17
CYBERSHOKE#871-20-2
Black Phoenix vs CYBERSHOKE
Aug 8LCache13-10Nuke11-13Dust28-13BAKS vs CYBERSHOKE
Sep 15LCache11-13Dust211-13EX-ex-RUBY#1044-22-1
BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5
Misa#1101-23-3
Black Phoenix vs Misa
Jul 27LDust213-7Anubis8-13Inferno6-13
SPARTA1-21-2
Black Phoenix vs SPARTA
Aug 30LDust28-13Inferno13-4Nuke6-13BAKS vs SPARTA
Sep 16LAncient19-16Dust25-13Inferno3-13Map lab
Black Phoenix56%to win the Bo3 · most likely Black Phoenix 2-1
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 56%how the series ends44% BAKS
25%2-024%
31%2-120%
Black Phoenix57%19-16vsBAKS43%6-7
54%Win46%
55%CT43%
50%T56%
49%Pistol50%
91%Conv85%
Black Phoenix43%8-3vsBAKS57%11-3
73%Win79%
50%CT61%
52%T53%
64%Pistol54%
64%Conv87%
Black Phoenix62%7-5vsBAKS38%4-5
58%Win44%
57%CT45%
47%T48%
54%Pistol39%
85%Conv71%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixDust2BAKS
55%CT side43%
50%T side56%
49%Pistol50%
91%After win85%
14%After loss8%
Black PhoenixCacheBAKS
50%CT side61%
52%T side53%
64%Pistol54%
64%After win87%
0%After loss15%
Black PhoenixInfernoBAKS
57%CT side45%
47%T side48%
54%Pistol39%
85%After win71%
0%After loss9%
Pistol rounds53% · 49% · Black Phoenix win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol9% · 11% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBLABAK
AncientBLA ban0%0-186%6-1
Black Phoenix on Ancient
LPsychoFace11–1311d ago
AnubisBAK ban20%3-12n/a0g
Black Phoenix on Anubis
WLavked13–31d agoW
ENCE13–113d agoL
WW3–135d agoW
Nemiga13–105d agoL
UNiTY2–1315d agoL
ex-Zero Tenacity8–1317d agoL
UPGRADE4–1322d agoLNemiga5–1323d agoBAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2BLA pick54%19-1646%6-7
CacheBAK pick73%8-379%11-3
MirageBLA ban37%7-1250%3-3
NukeBAK ban56%10-855%6-5
Infernodecider58%7-544%4-5
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · BAKS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/54 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 54 maps they won, 19 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/57 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 19 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/36 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 36 maps they won, 12 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 downvs eternal premiumMiragefrom 5 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 5 downvs XcityInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/25 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 6 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs CYBERSHOKECacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs TDKDust2led 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K28Dust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20