CS2OBSERVER
Matches / Upcoming / Black Phoenix vs BAKS

Black Phoenix vs BAKS: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · NODWIN Clutch Series 12

Black Phoenix
World #89 · 25-23
VS
2026-09-19 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
BAKS
World #83 · 14-10
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
52%
Win probability
48%
46%
2.021.71Market · 7 booksBookmakerBLABAKGranaWin1.981.681xBit2.021.711xbet2.021.71ColdBet2.021.71Spinbet2.021.71Vivatbet2.021.71betlabel2.021.71
54%
The call

Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. Bookmakers lean BAKS at 54%. Record slightly favours BAKS, firepower slightly favours Black Phoenix.

Likely mapsDust2 · Cache · Inferno

Firepower

roster ratings

Black Phoenix · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
MRcreed★0.9968.868.9%60%1.11
karnez0.9877.969.4%67%1.08
4X1s0.8973.869.3%53%1.03
topo1.086670.4%32%1.02
Salazar0.8668.268.9%51%0.98

BAKS · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
turbo★1.0775.973.1%62%1.17
whisper1.175.772%64%1.15
Norwi0.9773.569.8%48%1.08
danistzz1.1270.474.6%38%1.05
xdENiSZERA1.0270.473.5%54%1.03

Recent form

Black Phoenix

LavkedPistolsPist3/41d ago2-0ex-RUSTEC2d ago2-1ENCE3d ago2-0Just PlayersPistolsPist3/4Blew leadBL84d ago0-2WW5d ago1-2NemigaOvertimeOT5d ago1-2INOX DivisionStompStomp13-19d ago1-2PsychoFaceStompStomp13-211d ago2-1HAVUPistolsPist2/2OvertimeOT13d ago2-0UNiTYStompStomp2-1315d ago0-2INFINITE17d ago0-2ex-Zero Tenacity17d ago0-2BBLUpsetUpsetOvertimeOT19d ago2-0SPARTA20d ago1-2UPGRADE22d ago2-1

BAKS

ex-RUSTEC1d ago2-1G2 AresOvertimeOT2d ago2-1SPARTAComebackCB6OvertimeOT3d ago1-2Spirit Academy4d ago2-0CYBERSHOKEStompStomp17-13OvertimeOT4d ago0-2FORZE ReloadPistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT6d ago2-0ex-RUBYUpsetUpset6d ago2-1WBTUpsetUpset19d ago1-2MisaOvertimeOT19d ago2-1MOUZ NXT20d ago2-0MisaUpsetUpset20d ago1-2Color26d ago4-13BASEMENT BOYS1mo ago1-2OGPistolsPist4/41mo ago2-0Fire Flux1mo ago2-1

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
ex-RUSTEC#672-32-1
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 17WNuke13-3Inferno11-13Dust213-10Aug 21LAnubis8-13Inferno14-16
BAKS vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 18WDust27-13Cache13-10Nuke13-8
FORZE Reload#750-22-0
Black Phoenix vs FORZE Reload
Aug 27LMirage10-13Dust210-13
BAKS vs FORZE Reload
Sep 13WCache13-8Nuke19-17
CYBERSHOKE#871-20-2
Black Phoenix vs CYBERSHOKE
Aug 8LCache13-10Nuke11-13Dust28-13
BAKS vs CYBERSHOKE
Sep 15LCache11-13Dust211-13
ex-RUBY#1044-22-1
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUBY
Aug 25WDust211-13Mirage13-10Cache13-9Aug 23WMirage9-13Nuke13-7
BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5
Misa#1101-23-3
Black Phoenix vs Misa
Jul 27LDust213-7Anubis8-13Inferno6-13
BAKS vs Misa
Aug 31WDust213-10Nuke12-16Cache13-11Aug 30LDust213-10Nuke9-13Cache8-13
SPARTA1-21-2
Black Phoenix vs SPARTA
Aug 30LDust28-13Inferno13-4Nuke6-13
BAKS vs SPARTA
Sep 16LAncient19-16Dust25-13Inferno3-13

Map lab

Black Phoenix56%to win the Bo3 · most likely Black Phoenix 2-1
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 56%how the series ends44% BAKS
25%2-024%
31%2-120%
Map 1Dust2Black Phoenix pick
Black Phoenix57%19-16vsBAKS43%6-7
54%Win46%
55%CT43%
50%T56%
49%Pistol50%
91%Conv85%
Map 2CacheBAKS pick
Black Phoenix43%8-3vsBAKS57%11-3
73%Win79%
50%CT61%
52%T53%
64%Pistol54%
64%Conv87%
Map 3Infernodecider
Black Phoenix62%7-5vsBAKS38%4-5
58%Win44%
57%CT45%
47%T48%
54%Pistol39%
85%Conv71%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

Black PhoenixDust2BAKS
55%CT side43%
50%T side56%
49%Pistol50%
91%After win85%
14%After loss8%
Black PhoenixCacheBAKS
50%CT side61%
52%T side53%
64%Pistol54%
64%After win87%
0%After loss15%
Black PhoenixInfernoBAKS
57%CT side45%
47%T side48%
54%Pistol39%
85%After win71%
0%After loss9%
Pistol rounds53% · 49% · Black Phoenix win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol9% · 11% · both bounce back about the same

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBLABAK
AncientBLA ban0%0-186%6-1
Black Phoenix on Ancient
LPsychoFace11–1311d ago
BAKS on Ancient
WG2 Ares22–202d agoWSPARTA19–163d agoWex-RUBY13–56d agoLWBT7–1319d agoWBET-M13–82mo agoWTDK13–82mo agoWReThink13–63mo ago
AnubisBAK ban20%3-12n/a0g
Black Phoenix on Anubis
WLavked13–31d agoWENCE13–113d agoLWW3–135d agoWNemiga13–105d agoLUNiTY2–1315d agoLex-Zero Tenacity8–1317d agoLUPGRADE4–1322d agoLNemiga5–1323d ago
BAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2BLA pick54%19-1646%6-7
Black Phoenix on Dust2
WLavked13–61d agoWex-RUSTEC13–102d agoLJust Players8–134d agoLWW11–135d agoLNemiga8–135d agoWINOX Division13–19d agoWPsychoFace13–211d agoLUNiTY8–1315d ago
BAKS on Dust2
Lex-RUSTEC7–131d agoLSPARTA5–133d agoLCYBERSHOKE11–134d agoWMisa13–1019d agoWMOUZ NXT13–520d agoWMisa13–1020d agoLBASEMENT BOYS4–131mo agoWFire Flux13–61mo ago
CacheBAK pick73%8-379%11-3
Black Phoenix on Cache
WENCE13–93d agoWUPGRADE13–1122d agoLex-Zero Tenacity3–1325d agoWex-RUBY13–925d agoWNordic Partners13–727d agoWCYBERSHOKE13–101mo agoWWalczaki25–231mo agoLSashi6–132mo ago
BAKS on Cache
Wex-RUSTEC13–101d agoWG2 Ares13–92d agoWSpirit Academy13–94d agoLCYBERSHOKE11–134d agoWFORZE Reload13–86d agoWex-RUBY13–66d agoWWBT13–519d agoWMisa13–1119d ago
MirageBLA ban37%7-1250%3-3
Black Phoenix on Mirage
LJust Players10–134d agoWWW13–115d agoLNemiga15–195d agoLINFINITE10–1317d agoWRune Eaters13–922d agoLFORZE Reload10–1323d agoWex-RUBY13–1025d agoLex-RUBY9–1327d ago
BAKS on Mirage
WSpirit Academy13–114d agoLex-RUBY5–136d agoWOG13–61mo agoLVirtus.pro7–132mo agoLReThink26–283mo agoWeternal premium13–104mo ago
NukeBAK ban56%10-855%6-5
Black Phoenix on Nuke
Wex-RUSTEC13–32d agoLINOX Division4–139d agoWPsychoFace13–911d agoWBBL13–1019d agoLSPARTA6–1320d agoWUPGRADE13–1122d agoWHAVU13–926d agoWex-RUBY13–727d ago
BAKS on Nuke
Wex-RUSTEC13–81d agoWFORZE Reload19–176d agoLWBT5–1319d agoLMisa12–1619d agoWMOUZ NXT13–1120d agoLMisa9–1320d agoWBASEMENT BOYS13–41mo agoLVirtus.pro10–132mo ago
Infernodecider58%7-544%4-5
Black Phoenix on Inferno
Lex-RUSTEC11–132d agoLINOX Division5–139d agoWBBL16–1319d agoWSPARTA13–420d agoWHYPERSPIRIT13–724d agoWUNiTY13–728d agoLButterfly9–1328d agoLex-RUSTEC14–1629d ago
BAKS on Inferno
LG2 Ares11–132d agoLSPARTA3–133d agoLColor4–1326d agoWOG13–111mo agoLFire Flux7–131mo agoWBET-M13–62mo agoLOxuji9–134mo agoWCYBERSHOKE Prospects13–54mo ago
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · BAKS Anubis.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Black Phoenix

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/54 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 54 maps they won, 19 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/57 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 19 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16

BAKS

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/36 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 36 maps they won, 12 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 downvs eternal premiumMiragefrom 5 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 5 downvs XcityInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/25 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 6 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs CYBERSHOKECacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs TDKDust2led 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K28Dust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20

Black Phoenix vs BAKS FAQ

Who is favored to win Black Phoenix vs BAKS?

Black Phoenix are favored with a 52% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Black Phoenix vs BAKS?

Bookmakers price Black Phoenix at 2.02 and BAKS at 1.71 (implied 46% vs 54%).

When do Black Phoenix and BAKS play?

Black Phoenix vs BAKS is scheduled for 2026-09-19 17:00 UTC at NODWIN Clutch Series 12.

Black Phoenix vs BAKS Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview · CS2OBSERVER