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Predictions / INOX Division vs SPARTA · match preview
INOX Division vs SPARTA: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
INOX Division
World #59 · 57-28
VS
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
SPARTA
World #– · 49-52
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
53%47%
44%
2.141.65Market · 9 books
56%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. Bookmakers lean SPARTA at 56%. Record slightly favours INOX Division, firepower clearly favours SPARTA, head-to-head slightly favours INOX Division.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INOX DivisionpullSPARTA
Team strength1595
159251/49 INO
Track record57–28
49–5261/39 INO
Recent formLWLLW
LWLWW56/44 SPA
Roster rating1.14
1.0887/13 SPA
Head-to-head6 maps
3 maps64/36 INO
Bookmakers imply 44% for INOX Division (2.14 / 1.65); we land 9 points higher at 53%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (207 maps of INOX Division, 252 of SPARTA). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: INOX Division leads 3–0.
Bottom line: INOX Division to beat SPARTA, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsINOX Division · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
SPARTA · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRAVIS★ | 1.09 | 74.6 | 73.5% | 58% | 1.15 |
| El1an | 1.24 | 77.1 | 72.1% | 29% | 1.14 |
| glowiing | 1.07 | 82.2 | 74.9% | 56% | 1.14 |
| interz | 1.03 | 67.2 | 79.6% | 58% | 1.03 |
| NickelBack | 0.82 | 67.4 | 70% | 50% | 0.96 |
Recent form
INOX Division
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents24d ago
INOX Division2 : 1
SPARTA!3mo ago INOX Division2 : 1 SPARTA!5mo ago INOX Division2 : 1 SPARTA!
INOX Division2 : 1 SPARTA!⚠ Different lineup
SPARTA
outsugaR
ininterz
INOX Division2 : 1 SPARTA!⚠ Different lineup
INOX Division
outnotineki
ingooddeph
SPARTA
outForester, Krad
inglowiing, interz
INOX Division2 : 1 SPARTA!⚠ Different lineup
SPARTA
outForester, Lack1
inglowiing, interz
HOTU#281-20-2
INOX Division vs HOTU
May 12LNuke13-10Dust222-25Ancient6-13SPARTA vs HOTU
Aug 31LDust25-13Cache8-13
1win#383-61-2
Nemiga#391-20-4
INOX Division vs Nemiga
May 9LNuke7-13Anubis13-8Overpass11-13
Nemesis#440-20-4
INOX Division vs Nemesis
May 26LInferno12-16Ancient6-13
SINNERS#451-21-2
INOX Division vs SINNERS
Aug 1LCache13-8Inferno11-13Ancient9-13SPARTA vs SINNERS
Aug 2LDust213-10Mirage8-13Cache7-13
Nuclear TigeRES#471-23-3
INOX Division vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 9LAncient9-13Dust213-8Inferno4-13
GenOne#564-17-6
SPARTA vs GenOne
Jul 27LAncient0-13Dust213-6Nuke11-13Jun 12LAncient4-13Dust213-9Nuke8-13May 20LDust27-13Overpass13-11Nuke8-13+2 earlier meetings
COLColor#570-24-6
INOX Division vs Color
Sep 13LInferno4-13Dust214-16SPARTA vs Color
Sep 18LDust211-13Mirage13-16Sep 12LInferno7-13Dust213-11Mirage10-13Aug 23WDust222-19Mirage13-8+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
INOX Division66%to win the Bo3 · most likely INOX Division 2-1
If the veto goes
INOX Division 66%how the series ends34% SPARTA
31%2-019%
35%2-115%
INOX Division60%29-16vsSPARTA40%12-10
64%Win55%
54%CT53%
53%T49%
51%Pistol59%
72%Conv73%
INOX Division52%27-14vsSPARTA48%47-27
66%Win64%
62%CT55%
50%T55%
57%Pistol53%
87%Conv82%
INOX Division70%30-14vsSPARTA30%17-19
68%Win47%
61%CT57%
53%T40%
49%Pistol56%
79%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
INOX DivisionInfernoSPARTA
54%CT side53%
53%T side49%
51%Pistol59%
72%After win73%
34%After loss22%
INOX DivisionDust2SPARTA
62%CT side55%
50%T side55%
57%Pistol53%
87%After win82%
29%After loss30%
INOX DivisionNukeSPARTA
61%CT side57%
53%T side40%
49%Pistol56%
79%After win75%
36%After loss31%
Pistol rounds52% · 55% · SPARTA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 78% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol33% · 29% · INOX Division fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INOX Division vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
SPARTA habitually bans Anubis, INOX Division's strongest maps (Dust2, Ancient, Anubis, Inferno, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 84/102), not an opponent read, so expect INOX Division to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapINOSPA
MirageINO bann/a0g48%21-23
INOX Division on Mirage
no recent maps
AnubisSPA ban63%10-640%2-3
InfernoINO pick64%29-1655%12-10
Dust2SPA pick66%27-1464%47-27
CacheINO ban38%5-854%7-6
AncientSPA ban62%21-1335%14-26
Nukedecider68%30-1447%17-19
Each team's usual first ban: INOX Division Mirage · SPARTA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
INOX Division
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/130 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 130 maps they won, 32 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 downvs SPARTAOverpassfrom 8 downvs MANANukefrom 7 downvs OmegaOverpassfrom 6 downvs HYPERSPIRITInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/77 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 77 maps they lost, 26 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22vs MANANukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs NemesisInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs The Last ResortCacheled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs TDKOverpass13-16vs WalczakiDust216-13vs ex-RUBYNuke19-22vs HOTUDust222-25vs SPARTANuke20-22
SPARTA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i47/131 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 131 maps they won, 47 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs BAKSInfernofrom 10 downvs GenOneDust2from 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsAncientfrom 7 downvs ColorDust2from 7 downvs LavkedInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i37/121 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 121 maps they lost, 37 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionOverpassled 8 · lost 10-13vs ex-Young NinjasDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs TDKDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BAKSInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs MOUZ NXTNuke19-17vs TDKDust217-19vs TDKOverpass16-14vs TDKDust213-16vs BIGAncient17-19