Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / ex-RUSTEC vs Drama · match preview
ex-RUSTEC vs Drama: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
ex-RUSTEC
World #67 · 32-20
VS
2026-09-22 14:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
Drama
World #127 · 7-13
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
65%35%
The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Drama. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, record slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, form clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Nuke · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-RUSTECpullDrama
Team strength1571
148069/31 EX-
Track record32–20
7–1362/38 EX-
Recent formWWLWL
LLLLW81/19 EX-
Roster rating1.11
1.1251/49 DRA
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 91% our own signal (225 maps of ex-RUSTEC, 46 of Drama).
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat Drama, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsex-RUSTEC · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.14 | 80.4 | 73.2% | 68% | 1.21 |
| youka | 1.26 | 74 | 72.1% | 36% | 1.2 |
| shalfey | 1.1 | 76.3 | 74.1% | 61% | 1.15 |
| Brilliance | 0.87 | 71.4 | 69.4% | 56% | 1 |
| jakekeS | 0.91 | 68.1 | 73.3% | 55% | 1 |
Drama · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ex-RUSTEC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
INOX Division#590-41-2
Drama vs INOX Division
Sep 15LAncient8-13Nuke13-5Inferno12-16
QUAZAR#1020-20-2
ex-RUSTEC vs QUAZAR
Sep 16LNuke12-16Mirage10-13Drama vs QUAZAR
Sep 19LInferno4-13Anubis7-13Map lab
Drama54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Drama 2-1
If the veto goes
ex-RUSTEC 46%how the series ends54% Drama
25%2-012%
21%2-142%
ex-RUSTEC83%21-13vsDrama17%1-5
62%Win17%
57%CT43%
50%T40%
49%Pistol25%
79%Conv100%
ex-RUSTEC30%12-14vsDrama70%4-1
46%Win80%
54%CT70%
44%T43%
52%Pistol70%
81%Conv71%
ex-RUSTEC34%7-8vsDrama66%6-3
47%Win67%
53%CT60%
47%T50%
37%Pistol78%
82%Conv93%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ex-RUSTECDust2Drama
57%CT side43%
50%T side40%
49%Pistol25%
79%After win100%
17%After loss11%
ex-RUSTECNukeDrama
54%CT side70%
44%T side43%
52%Pistol70%
81%After win71%
8%After loss33%
ex-RUSTECMirageDrama
53%CT side60%
47%T side50%
37%Pistol78%
82%After win93%
21%After loss0%
Pistol rounds47% · 60% · Drama win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 88% · Drama keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 13% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-RUSTEC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Drama habitually bans Anubis, ex-RUSTEC's strongest maps (Dust2, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 15/20), not an opponent read, so expect ex-RUSTEC to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapEX-DRA
AncientEX- bann/a0g42%5-7
ex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisDRA ban70%16-70%0-2
Dust2EX- pick62%21-1317%1-5
NukeDRA pick46%12-1480%4-1
CacheEX- ban46%6-7100%1-0
InfernoDRA ban46%6-722%2-7
Miragedecider47%7-867%6-3
Each team's usual first ban: ex-RUSTEC Ancient · Drama Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/68 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 68 maps they won, 21 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs NexusDust2from 6 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/56 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 18 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Drama
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/19 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 5 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs mellrenNukefrom 6 downvs ENCEMiragefrom 6 downvs ZOTIXNukefrom 5 downvs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/27 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 10 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs FaZeNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs HYPERSPIRITAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs mellrenNukefrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs ZOTIXDust213-16vs fnaticAncient16-14vs SINQUInferno16-19vs INOX DivisionInferno12-16