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Predictions / 5star vs NEXVOID · match preview
5star vs NEXVOID: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 East Asia Closed Qualifier
5star
World #133 · 24-16
VS
2026-09-09 08:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 East Asia Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
NEXVOID
World #104 · 31-20
57%43%
The call
5star are favoured: our model gives them 57% against NEXVOID. No odds yet. Form clearly favours 5star, firepower slightly favours 5star.
Likely mapsNuke · Inferno · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
5starpullNEXVOID
Team strength1583
157652/48 5ST
Track record24–16
31–2051/49 NEX
Recent formWWWWL
LLLWW76/24 5ST
Roster rating1.08
1.1164/36 5ST
Head-to-head10 maps
9 maps52/48 5ST
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (100 maps of 5star, 121 of NEXVOID). Head-to-head they've met 7 times: 5star leads 4–3.
Bottom line: 5star to beat NEXVOID, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
5star
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6d ago
NEXVOID1 : 2
5star◆ same lineup2mo ago 5star1 : 2 NEXVOID◆ same lineup5mo ago 5star0 : 2 NEXVOID!5mo ago 5star2 : 1 NEXVOID!5mo ago 5star2 : 1 NEXVOID!6mo ago NEXVOID0 : 2 5star!6mo ago NEXVOID2 : 1 5star!
NEXVOID1 : 2 5star◆ same lineup2mo ago 5star1 : 2 NEXVOID◆ same lineup5mo ago 5star0 : 2 NEXVOID!⚠ Different lineup
NEXVOID
outOCEANA
inxerolte
5star2 : 1 NEXVOID!⚠ Different lineup
NEXVOID
outOCEANA
inxerolte
5star2 : 1 NEXVOID!⚠ Different lineup
NEXVOID
outOCEANA
inxerolte
NEXVOID0 : 2 5star!⚠ Different lineup
NEXVOID
outOCEANA
inxerolte
NEXVOID2 : 1 5star!⚠ Different lineup
NEXVOID
outOCEANA
inxerolte
Lynn Vision#290-20-4
5star vs Lynn Vision
Jul 11LInferno2-13Ancient10-13
TYLOO#340-41-2
NEXVOID vs TYLOO
May 3LAncient13-10Inferno11-13Overpass8-13
FlyQuest#482-10-4
5star vs FlyQuest
May 13WDust27-13Ancient16-13Inferno13-9
Rare Atom#906-34-1
Alter Ego#943-32-3
The Huns#1092-315-8
NEXVOID vs The Huns
Jul 25WInferno13-10Nuke13-9Jul 24WInferno16-12Nuke6-13Ancient13-10Apr 29WDust213-7Nuke13-4+6 earlier meetings
Just Swing#1151-22-1
5star vs Just Swing
Mar 21LNuke13-8Ancient3-13Inferno6-13NEXVOID vs Just Swing
Aug 31WCache4-13Inferno13-10Dust219-17Firepower
roster ratings5star · avg 1.08 · top +0.05
NEXVOID · avg 1.11 · top +0.12
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiQ | 109 | 1.14 | 85 | 70.8% | 47% | 1.23 |
| Zesta | 118 | 1.06 | 76.8 | 72.1% | 61% | 1.16 |
| erkaSt | 120 | 1 | 77.2 | 71.4% | 50% | 1.11 |
| AccuracyTG | 120 | 0.99 | 67.7 | 70.1% | 46% | 1.03 |
| xerolte | 42 | 0.97 | 74.9 | 71% | 54% | 1.03 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, 5star vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
NEXVOID habitually bans Mirage, 5star's strongest maps (Nuke, Inferno, Anubis, Mirage, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 51/52), not an opponent read, so expect 5star to fight the veto for Nuke.
Map5STNEX
Dust25ST ban40%2-355%11-9
MirageNEX ban86%6-1n/a0g
5star on Mirage
W
Chinggis Warriors13–114d agoW
Haunted House13–612d agoW
XDM13–1113d agoLAlter Ego1–1315d agoWAlter Ego13–112mo agoWyunglean13–55mo agoWChinggis Warriors13–65mo agoNEXVOID on Mirage
no recent maps
Nuke5ST pick63%17-1048%11-12
InfernoNEX pick60%12-861%19-12
Ancient5ST ban30%6-1471%15-6
CacheNEX ban67%4-20%0-2
Each team's usual first ban: 5star Dust2 · NEXVOID Mirage.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
5star67%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: 5star 64% · Inferno: NEXVOID 52% toss-up · Anubis: 5star 71% clearWhy5star hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomes5star 67%: 2-1 36%, 2-0 31% · NEXVOID 33%: 2-0 19%, 2-1 15%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
5star 67%5star are the clearer side here: the most likely result is 5star 2-1.33% NEXVOID
Nuke
5star64%NEXVOID36%
17-10record11-12
63%win48%
60%CT win55%
53%T win47%
63%pistol54%
94%convert88%
Inferno
5star48%NEXVOID52%
12-8record19-12
60%win61%
56%CT win50%
42%T win53%
45%pistol60%
94%convert81%
Anubis
5star71%NEXVOID29%
6-4record3-6
60%win33%
47%CT win35%
57%T win52%
45%pistol44%
67%convert75%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
5STct
5STt
NEXct
NEXt
5STpistol
5STconv
5STeco
NEXpistol
NEXconv
NEXeco
Nukepool
60%173/289
53%151/285
55%147/267
47%107/228
63%34/54
94%32/34
10%2/20
54%25/46
88%22/25
19%4/21
Infernopool
56%118/211
42%88/208
50%162/325
53%182/344
45%18/40
94%17/18
0%0/22
60%37/62
81%30/37
28%7/25
Anubispool
47%47/101
57%57/100
35%32/91
52%50/96
45%9/20
67%6/9
9%1/11
44%8/18
75%6/8
20%2/10
Dust2ban
45%24/53
47%23/49
46%101/218
50%93/185
60%6/10
67%4/6
0%0/4
43%17/40
88%15/17
13%3/23
Mirageban
53%39/73
58%40/69
n/a
n/a
50%7/14
86%6/7
14%1/7
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ancientban
46%96/208
36%73/201
60%120/201
54%112/206
53%21/40
67%14/21
17%3/18
62%26/42
80%20/25
13%2/16
Cacheban
58%32/55
44%31/70
29%7/24
44%7/16
58%7/12
71%5/7
0%0/5
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (5star 54%, NEXVOID 56%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → 5star usually win the next round too (90% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → NEXVOID fight back to win the next round more often (23% vs 6%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
5star
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/55 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 55 maps they won, 13 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs Alter EgoMiragefrom 6 downvs NEXVOIDNukefrom 5 downvs Rare AtomDust2from 5 downvs Chinggis WarriorsInfernofrom 4 downvs BMZAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/45 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 45 maps they lost, 11 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NEXVOIDNukeled 6 · lost 13-16vs KaleidoAncientled 6 · lost 8-13vs FlyQuestDust2led 5 · lost 7-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs NEXVOIDAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Alter EgoMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NEXVOIDNukeled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs BMZAncient25-22vs NEXVOIDNuke13-16vs Rare AtomInferno16-13vs FlyQuestAncient16-13vs Alter EgoAnubis16-14
NEXVOID
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/66 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 20 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs The HunsDust2from 8 downvs Chinggis WarriorsOverpassfrom 7 downvs 5starNukefrom 6 downvs KaleidoAncientfrom 6 downvs Rare AtomInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/53 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 53 maps they lost, 22 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 8 · lost 14-16vs The HunsNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs Alter EgoInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs BMZAnubisled 5 · lost 9-13vs 5starNukeled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The HunsDust2from 8 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs The HunsAncient16-13vs The HunsInferno16-14vs fullwInferno16-12vs The HunsDust216-12vs BMZAncient17-19