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Predictions / ShindeN vs Fluxo · match preview
ShindeN vs Fluxo: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier
ShindeN
World #85 · 48-24
VS
2026-09-09 14:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Fluxo
World #58 · 35-32
58%42%
51%
1.811.91Market · 2 books
49%The call
ShindeN are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Fluxo. Bookmakers lean ShindeN at 51%. Strength slightly favours ShindeN, record slightly favours ShindeN, firepower clearly favours Fluxo.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ShindeNpullFluxo
Team strength1650
161059/41 SHI
Track record48–24
35–3262/38 SHI
Recent formLWWLW
WLWLW52/48 FLU
Roster rating1.16
1.1473/27 FLU
Head-to-head6 maps
5 maps54/46 SHI
Bookmakers imply 51% for ShindeN (1.81 / 1.91); we land 7 points higher at 58%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (162 maps of ShindeN, 152 of Fluxo). Head-to-head they've met 5 times: ShindeN leads 3–2.
Bottom line: ShindeN to beat Fluxo, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
ShindeN
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents9d ago
Fluxo1 : 2
ShindeN!6mo ago ShindeN0 : 2 Fluxo!6mo ago Fluxo2 : 0 ShindeN!7mo ago Fluxo0 : 2 ShindeN!8mo ago ShindeN2 : 0 Fluxo!
Fluxo1 : 2 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
Fluxo
outLtz, dav1deuS, exit, kye, zevy
ShindeN0 : 2 Fluxo!⚠ Different lineup
Fluxo
outLucaozy, exit, kye, mlhzin, zevy
Fluxo2 : 0 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
Fluxo
outLucaozy, exit, kye, mlhzin, zevy
Fluxo0 : 2 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
ShindeN
outnacho
inguty
Fluxo
outLucaozy, decenty, exit, kye, zevy
ShindeN2 : 0 Fluxo!⚠ Different lineup
ShindeN
outnacho
inguty
Fluxo
outLucaozy, decenty, exit, kye, zevy
9z#133-21-2
paiN#231-40-2
Fluxo vs paiN
Apr 4LMirage5-13Nuke2-13
MIBR#284-30-2
Imperial#6110-88-6
ShindeN vs Imperial
Sep 1LDust29-13Cache19-16Inferno16-19Aug 28LInferno4-13Cache7-13Jul 30WMirage16-14Nuke9-13Inferno13-9+4 earlier meetings
Fluxo vs Imperial
Jul 31WDust25-13Inferno13-9Nuke13-8Jul 20WNuke17-19Cache16-13Dust219-17Mirage3-13Anubis13-11Jul 16WNuke19-15Cache7-13Dust213-6+1 earlier meeting
Galorys#882-40-6
BESTIA#891-60-6
Bounty Hunters#1092-67-4
ShindeN vs Bounty Hunters
Jul 16LNuke5-13Mirage10-13May 1LAncient13-6Mirage5-13Nuke6-13Apr 2LMirage13-10Nuke4-13Dust29-13Fluxo vs Bounty Hunters
Jul 30WCache13-7Dust26-13Nuke13-4Jul 18WNuke13-4Dust216-13Jul 9LMirage13-7Anubis10-13Nuke10-13+1 earlier meeting
Isurus#1144-31-2
ShindeN vs Isurus
Aug 29WInferno13-11Nuke19-17Apr 27LDust22-13Inferno16-19Mar 15WDust213-2Inferno8-13Nuke13-9Fluxo vs Isurus
Jul 26LInferno13-9Nuke4-13Cache8-13Firepower
roster ratingsShindeN · avg 1.16 · top +0.03
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ShindeN vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSHIFLU
AnubisSHI bann/a0g50%8-8
ShindeN on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientFLU ban64%9-518%2-9
NukeSHI pick66%29-1553%24-21
Dust2FLU pick61%19-1257%17-13
CacheSHI ban40%2-350%3-3
InfernoFLU ban73%22-855%12-10
Each team's usual first ban: ShindeN Anubis · Fluxo Overpass.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ShindeN59%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: ShindeN 62% · Dust2: ShindeN 54% toss-up · Mirage: ShindeN 51% toss-upWhyShindeN hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesShindeN 59%: 2-0 34%, 2-1 25% · Fluxo 41%: 2-1 24%, 2-0 17%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
ShindeN 59%It’s nearly a coin-flip. ShindeN only lead because their Nuke is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.41% Fluxo
Nuke
ShindeN62%Fluxo38%
29-15record24-21
66%win53%
58%CT win57%
54%T win49%
45%pistol56%
88%convert80%
Dust2
ShindeN54%Fluxo46%
19-12record17-13
61%win57%
53%CT win50%
54%T win53%
60%pistol38%
76%convert91%
Mirage
ShindeN51%Fluxo49%
14-10record12-9
58%win57%
52%CT win60%
52%T win45%
56%pistol48%
70%convert68%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
SHIct
SHIt
FLUct
FLUt
SHIpistol
SHIconv
SHIeco
FLUpistol
FLUconv
FLUeco
Nukepool
58%232/398
54%267/498
57%254/445
49%224/455
45%40/88
88%35/40
35%17/48
56%50/90
80%40/50
15%6/40
Dust2pool
53%186/350
54%146/272
50%146/290
53%174/329
60%37/62
76%28/37
32%8/25
38%23/60
91%21/23
22%8/37
Miragepool
52%121/232
52%138/264
60%134/225
45%72/159
56%27/48
70%19/27
33%7/21
48%20/42
68%13/19
18%4/22
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
45%72/160
53%89/169
n/a
n/a
n/a
34%11/32
91%10/11
5%1/21
Ancientban
57%93/162
47%63/134
52%61/117
38%45/120
54%15/28
73%11/15
38%5/13
45%10/22
80%8/10
0%0/12
Cacheban
47%27/57
46%24/52
54%37/69
45%24/53
20%2/10
100%2/2
13%1/8
75%9/12
89%8/9
33%1/3
Infernoban
61%191/312
53%157/295
55%123/223
47%102/217
57%34/60
82%28/34
31%8/26
43%19/44
95%18/19
24%6/25
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ShindeN wins more pistol rounds: 53% vs 48%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (79% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → ShindeN fight back to win the next round more often (34% vs 18%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ShindeN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/103 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 26 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 downvs ALKADust2from 8 downvs SharksMiragefrom 7 downvs IsurusNukefrom 7 downvs Fake do BiruNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/59 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 21 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13vs paiNMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs ImperialCacheled 6 · lost 16-19vs 9zNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs ProcyonDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs FluxoAncient16-14vs ImperialNuke16-13vs ImperialOverpass19-17vs BESTIANuke17-19vs RED CanidsMirage16-12
Fluxo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/78 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 78 maps they won, 21 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 downvs Keyd StarsNukefrom 8 downvs paiN AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs MarsborneAncientfrom 5 downvs ODDIKDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/73 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 73 maps they lost, 20 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13vs LPInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs GalorysNukeled 6 · lost 7-13vs GameHuntersMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs ShindeNAncient14-16vs ODDIKAncient18-22vs ODDIKDust222-18vs SAWAnubis22-20vs Keyd StarsNuke13-16