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Predictions / paiN vs Back to Back · match preview
paiN vs Back to Back: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier
paiN
World #23 · 26-28
VS
2026-09-09 23:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Back to Back
World #– · 6-4
54%46%
84%
1.15.75Market · 12 books
16%The call
paiN are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Back to Back. Bookmakers lean paiN at 84%. Record slightly favours Back to Back, form clearly favours Back to Back, firepower clearly favours Back to Back.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
paiNpullBack to Back
Team strength1535
153051/49 PAI
Track record26–28
6–458/42 BAC
Recent formLLLLL
WWLLW86/14 BAC
Roster rating1.05
1.1793/7 BAC
Bookmakers imply 84% for paiN (1.1 / 5.75); we land 30 points lower at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 84% our own signal (124 maps of paiN, 21 of Back to Back).
Bottom line: paiN to beat Back to Back, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
paiN
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Fluxo#582-00-2
paiN vs Fluxo
Apr 4WMirage13-5Nuke13-2Back to Back vs Fluxo
Sep 4LNuke4-13Mirage5-13
Bounty Hunters#1092-12-2
paiN vs Bounty Hunters
Mar 27WMirage11-13Nuke13-4Dust213-8
METANOIA Wolves#2152-04-1
paiN vs METANOIA Wolves
Jul 9WInferno13-4Dust213-4
DASH2-00-4
paiN vs DASH
Mar 28WInferno13-11Nuke16-13Firepower
roster ratingspaiN · avg 1.05 · top +0.04
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, paiN vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Back to Back habitually bans Nuke & Anubis, two of paiN's strongest maps (Nuke, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 5/10, Anubis 6/10), not an opponent read, so expect paiN to fight the veto for Nuke.
MapPAIBAC
AncientPAI bann/a0g100%1-0
paiN on Ancient
no recent maps
Back to Back on Ancient
WMETANOIA Wolves13–66mo agoNukeBAC ban66%23-1233%1-2
AnubisPAI pick63%5-3100%1-0
Dust2BAC pick38%8-1367%4-2
CachePAI ban0%0-6n/a0g
paiN on Cache
L
BIG8–136d agoL
HOTU11–136d agoL
FURIA6–1313d agoL
9z3–1327d agoL
3DMAX10–132mo agoL
Sharks11–132mo agoBack to Back on Cache
no recent maps
InfernoBAC ban47%8-925%1-3
Miragedecider50%12-1267%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: paiN Ancient · Back to Back Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Back to Back64%to win the seriesiMap edgesAnubis: Back to Back 51% toss-up · Dust2: Back to Back 72% clear · Mirage: Back to Back 55% toss-upWhyBack to Back hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomespaiN 36%: 2-1 22%, 2-0 14% · Back to Back 64%: 2-0 37%, 2-1 27%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
paiN 36%Back to Back are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Back to Back 2-0.64% Back to Back
Anubis
paiN49%Back to Back51%
5-3record1-0
63%win100%
48%CT win50%
61%T win70%
44%pistol50%
86%convert100%
Dust2
paiN28%Back to Back72%
8-13record4-2
38%win67%
50%CT win64%
44%T win53%
43%pistol67%
89%convert88%
Mirage
paiN45%Back to Back55%
12-12record2-1
50%win67%
58%CT win75%
43%T win53%
50%pistol50%
88%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
PAIct
PAIt
BACct
BACt
PAIpistol
PAIconv
PAIeco
BACpistol
BACconv
BACeco
Anubispool
48%42/88
61%40/66
50%6/12
70%7/10
44%7/16
86%6/7
11%1/9
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Dust2pool
50%108/215
44%98/223
64%39/61
53%34/64
43%18/42
89%16/18
21%5/24
67%8/12
88%7/8
25%1/4
Miragepool
58%157/272
43%100/235
75%12/16
53%19/36
50%24/48
88%21/24
25%6/24
50%3/6
100%3/3
100%3/3
Ancientban
n/a
n/a
75%9/12
57%4/7
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Nukeban
57%165/291
53%216/409
50%18/36
38%6/16
44%31/70
71%22/31
23%9/39
50%3/6
100%3/3
33%1/3
Cacheban
36%25/69
41%24/58
n/a
n/a
33%4/12
100%4/4
13%1/8
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
50%91/182
47%80/169
42%20/48
57%27/47
47%16/34
75%12/16
28%5/18
75%6/8
67%4/6
0%0/2
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Back to Back wins more pistol rounds: 60% vs 46%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Back to Back usually win the next round too (92% vs 88%). Lose the pistol → Back to Back fight back to win the next round more often (50% vs 21%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
paiN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/60 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 60 maps they won, 13 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 5 downvs G2Miragefrom 4 downvs DASHInfernofrom 4 downvs DASHNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/64 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 21 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs FaZeDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs Bounty HuntersMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs Gaimin GladiatorsOverpassled 5 · lost 11-13vs WildcardInfernoled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs HEROICMirage14-16vs B8Dust216-12vs 3DMAXInferno16-14vs PARIVISIONMirage15-19vs G2Inferno16-14
Back to Back
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/12 (8%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 1 (8%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 8% of their wins were comebacks, not 8% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/9 (56%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 5 (56%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FluxoNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs DASHInfernoled 3 · lost 17-19vs DASHDust2led 3 · lost 11-13vs DASHInfernoled 3 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersDust2from 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FluxoNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs DASHInferno17-19vs DASHInferno14-16