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Predictions / Liquid vs antivalue · match preview
Liquid vs antivalue: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier
Liquid
World #21 · 22-26
VS
2026-09-10 02:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
antivalue
World #– · 1-0
72%28%
92%
112Market · 3 books
8%The call
Liquid are favoured: our model gives them 72% against antivalue. Bookmakers lean Liquid at 92%. Strength slightly favours Liquid, record slightly favours antivalue, form slightly favours Liquid, firepower clearly favours antivalue.
Likely mapsMirage · Anubis · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Liquidpullantivalue
Team strength1573
150664/36 LIQ
Track record22–26
1–064/36 ANT
Recent formLWWLW
W59/41 LIQ
Roster rating1.11
1.3297/3 ANT
Bookmakers imply 92% for Liquid (1 / 12); we land 20 points lower at 72%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 50% our own signal (104 maps of Liquid, 3 of antivalue; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Liquid to beat antivalue, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
antivalue
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsLiquid · avg 1.11 · top +0.02
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Liquid vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLIQANT
Dust2LIQ ban33%6-12100%1-0
CacheANT ban60%3-2n/a0g
Liquid on Cache
L
1win7–131mo agoW
Metizport13–91mo agoW
Betclic13–111mo agoW
9INE13–41mo agoLBetclic12–161mo agoantivalue on Cache
no recent maps
MirageLIQ pick53%8-7n/a0g
Liquid on Mirage
W
G213–52mo agoL
MIBR10–133mo agoW
The MongolZ13–114mo agoL
GamerLegion9–134mo agoW
HAVU13–85mo agoW
Inner Circle16–135mo agoLThe MongolZ10–136mo agoW
Ninjas in Pyjamas19–176mo agoantivalue on Mirage
no recent maps
AnubisANT pick58%7-50%0-1
AncientLIQ ban31%5-11n/a0g
Liquid on Ancient
W
M8013–54mo agoL
Astralis11–134mo agoL
3DMAX5–135mo agoL
Spirit2–135mo agoLM807–135mo agoWInner Circle13–25mo agoLThe MongolZ3–136mo agoLThe MongolZ14–166mo agoantivalue on Ancient
no recent maps
NukeANT ban48%11-12n/a0g
Liquid on Nuke
W
Dhala13–21mo agoLBetclic7–131mo agoWBetclic13–111mo agoW
Vitality13–92mo agoW
HEROIC13–53mo agoW
BIG13–103mo agoLThe MongolZ9–134mo agoW3DMAX13–114mo agoantivalue on Nuke
no recent maps
Infernodecider53%8-7100%1-0
Each team's usual first ban: Liquid Overpass · antivalue Cache.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Liquid51%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Liquid 50% toss-up · Anubis: Liquid 54% toss-up · Inferno: antivalue 52% toss-upWhyLiquid hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesLiquid 51%: 2-0 27%, 2-1 24% · antivalue 49%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Liquid 51%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Liquid only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.49% antivalue
Mirage
Liquid50%antivalue50%
thin sample, read with caution
8-7record0-0
53%win–
58%CT win–
41%T win–
50%pistol–
73%convert–
Anubis
Liquid54%antivalue46%
7-5record0-1
58%win0%
48%CT win64%
61%T win25%
38%pistol100%
78%convert0%
Inferno
Liquid48%antivalue52%
8-7record1-0
53%win100%
51%CT win33%
49%T win67%
53%pistol50%
81%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
LIQct
LIQt
ANTct
ANTt
LIQpistol
LIQconv
LIQeco
ANTpistol
ANTconv
ANTeco
Miragepool
58%91/157
41%70/172
n/a
n/a
50%15/30
73%11/15
7%1/15
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubispool
48%59/122
61%71/116
64%7/11
25%3/12
38%9/24
78%7/9
13%2/15
100%2/2
0%0/2
n/a
Infernopool
51%90/175
49%72/147
33%4/12
67%8/12
53%16/30
81%13/16
14%2/14
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Dust2ban
46%89/193
46%81/178
100%12/12
25%1/4
58%21/36
100%21/21
13%2/15
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Cacheban
53%31/58
55%27/49
n/a
n/a
60%6/10
83%5/6
0%0/4
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ancientban
57%93/164
33%52/157
n/a
n/a
31%10/32
80%8/10
14%3/22
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
57%144/251
44%100/229
n/a
n/a
57%26/46
81%21/26
30%6/20
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
antivalue wins more pistol rounds: 75% vs 48%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Liquid usually win the next round too (78% vs 33%). Lose the pistol → Liquid fight back to win the next round more often (11% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Liquid
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/48 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 48 maps they won, 13 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 downvs M80Miragefrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 4 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 4 downvs VitalityAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/56 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 15 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs 3DMAXNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SashiNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs PARIVISIONDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs G2Mirageled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs FalconsNuke14-16vs G2Anubis14-16vs Passion UANuke15-19vs M80Mirage16-13
antivalue
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/2 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/1 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 1 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni1 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi67% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT67% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs CelestialInferno16-13