Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Fortress vs ENCE · match preview
Fortress vs ENCE: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
Fortress
World #217 · 5-18
VS
TBD
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
ENCE
World #130 · 29-27
25%75%
26%
3.541.26Market · 6 books
74%The call · high confidence
ENCE are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Fortress. Bookmakers lean ENCE at 74%. Strength clearly favours ENCE, record clearly favours ENCE, firepower clearly favours ENCE.
Likely mapsAncient · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FortresspullENCE
Team strength1377
150776/24 ENC
Track record5–18
29–2775/25 ENC
Recent formLLWLLLLLWW50/50
Roster rating0.89
1.0999/1 ENC
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 26% for Fortress (3.54 / 1.26) and we land at 25%, the same read. This read is 92% our own signal (48 maps of Fortress, 121 of ENCE).
Bottom line: ENCE to beat Fortress, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Fortress
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Noir Verse#1480-21-2
Fortress vs Noir Verse
Aug 3LAncient10-13Dust23-13ENCE vs Noir Verse
Aug 19LNuke13-9Mirage6-13Anubis2-13
Enjoy#1511-21-2
Fortress vs Enjoy
Jul 22LNuke16-13Mirage2-13Cache2-13ENCE vs Enjoy
Aug 13LCache10-13Inferno13-6Mirage11-13
STATE#1690-61-2
ENCE vs STATE
Aug 27LCache8-13Mirage13-10Nuke7-13
Tricked0-22-0
Fortress vs Tricked
Mar 14LAncient5-13Overpass8-13ENCE vs Tricked
Feb 13WAnubis13-7Overpass13-0Firepower
roster ratingsFortress · avg 0.89 · top +0.06
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrEnNiE | 48 | 0.8 | 67.7 | 63.5% | 61% | 0.95 |
| Brand | 43 | 0.81 | 71.7 | 65.2% | 54% | 0.93 |
| BqreBedre | 45 | 0.8 | 65.8 | 66% | 48% | 0.91 |
| As K | 48 | 0.72 | 64.1 | 61.6% | 56% | 0.84 |
| K1ngShield | 38 | 0.77 | 61.6 | 60.5% | 45% | 0.84 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Fortress vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFORENC
MirageFOR ban0%0-553%16-14
Dust2ENC ban50%1-133%3-6
AncientFOR pick30%3-739%7-11
NukeENC pick14%1-665%15-8
AnubisFOR ban40%2-359%10-7
InfernoENC ban25%2-656%5-4
Each team's usual first ban: Fortress Dust2 · ENCE Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ENCE85%to win the seriesiMap edgesAncient: ENCE 57% · Nuke: ENCE 86% clear · Cache: ENCE 80% clearWhyENCE hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesFortress 15%: 2-1 9%, 2-0 6% · ENCE 85%: 2-0 49%, 2-1 36%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Fortress 15%ENCE are the clearer side here: the most likely result is ENCE 2-0.85% ENCE
Ancient
Fortress43%ENCE57%
3-7record7-11
30%win39%
35%CT win52%
38%T win44%
30%pistol47%
67%convert82%
Nuke
Fortress14%ENCE86%
1-6record15-8
14%win65%
40%CT win59%
30%T win54%
43%pistol46%
83%convert90%
Cache
Fortress20%ENCE80%
1-7record3-3
13%win50%
41%CT win51%
27%T win46%
38%pistol42%
67%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
FORct
FORt
ENCct
ENCt
FORpistol
FORconv
FOReco
ENCpistol
ENCconv
ENCeco
Ancientpool
35%27/78
38%44/115
52%107/204
44%81/186
30%6/20
67%4/6
14%2/14
47%17/36
82%14/17
11%2/19
Nukepool
40%34/84
30%17/56
59%131/223
54%136/252
43%6/14
83%5/6
0%0/8
46%21/46
90%19/21
20%5/25
Cachepool
41%20/49
27%26/96
51%37/72
46%28/61
38%6/16
67%4/6
10%1/10
42%5/12
100%5/5
0%0/7
Mirageban
27%16/60
32%10/31
52%157/300
51%157/305
60%6/10
67%4/6
0%0/4
53%32/60
87%26/30
7%2/28
Dust2ban
38%9/24
58%7/12
49%52/106
35%24/69
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
50%9/18
78%7/9
22%2/9
Anubisban
32%19/60
57%27/47
52%94/182
52%90/172
40%4/10
100%4/4
33%2/6
44%15/34
80%12/15
5%1/19
Infernoban
44%30/68
37%28/76
43%41/95
55%50/91
56%9/16
100%9/9
0%0/6
61%11/18
82%9/11
14%1/7
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ENCE wins more pistol rounds: 46% vs 36%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → ENCE usually win the next round too (88% vs 72%). Lose the pistol → ENCE fight back to win the next round more often (14% vs 9%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Fortress
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/12 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 3 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 downvs Sashi AcademyOverpassfrom 7 downvs Inner Circle AcademyAnubisfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/36 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 36 maps they lost, 11 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13vs ex-RUSTECNukeled 8 · lost 13-16vs Inner Circle AcademyCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs InvictaInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16vs TrickedOverpassled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini6.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs InvictaInferno14-16vs Sashi AcademyOverpass16-12vs Strael BoraAncient16-14vs EnjoyNuke16-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAncient16-14
ENCE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/63 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 21 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 downvs eLITenergyNukefrom 5 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 5 downvs 100 ThievesAnubisfrom 5 downvs AllianceOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/58 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 58 maps they lost, 21 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16vs WBTNukeled 8 · lost 8-13vs illwillMirageled 7 · lost 13-16vs illwillAnubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs JiJieHaoOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis20-22vs fnaticAncient19-17vs illwillMirage13-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust213-16vs fnaticOverpass14-16