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Predictions / mellren vs ex-Sashi Academy · match preview
mellren vs ex-Sashi Academy: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 Closed Qualifier
mellren
World #118 · 11-5
VS
2026-09-09 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
ex-Sashi Academy
World #– · 2-3
76%24%
The call · high confidence
mellren are favoured: our model gives them 76% against ex-Sashi Academy. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours mellren, record clearly favours mellren, firepower clearly favours mellren.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
mellrenpullex-Sashi Academy
Team strength1563
142178/22 MEL
Track record11–5
2–374/26 MEL
Recent formLWLWW
LWLLW56/44 MEL
Roster rating1.14
0.9893/7 MEL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 90% our own signal (36 maps of mellren, 59 of ex-Sashi Academy).
Bottom line: mellren to beat ex-Sashi Academy, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
mellren
ex-Sashi Academy
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Noir Verse#1482-00-4
mellren vs Noir Verse
Aug 17WAnubis13-8Ancient13-3Firepower
roster ratingsmellren · avg 1.14 · top +0.14
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lollipop21k | 30 | 1.2 | 95.4 | 77.8% | 55% | 1.28 |
| shootic | 36 | 1.07 | 77.8 | 74.2% | 60% | 1.19 |
| menddel | 34 | 1.06 | 70.4 | 70.8% | 51% | 1.1 |
| mdl | 36 | 0.98 | 68 | 72.8% | 45% | 1.07 |
| Maksilvl | 36 | 0.93 | 69.1 | 73.7% | 57% | 1.04 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, mellren vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMELEX-
NukeMEL ban0%0-250%1-1
CacheEX- bann/a0g0%0-1
mellren on Cache
no recent maps
ex-Sashi Academy on Cache
LNoir Verse3–1324d agoMirageMEL pick80%8-250%1-1
InfernoEX- pick67%4-250%1-1
Dust2MEL ban50%4-4n/a0g
mellren on Dust2
W
BASEMENT BOYS13–31d agoL
WBT11–1316d agoW
Bushido Wildcats13–1119d agoW
Honvéd13–1123d agoL
Spirit Academy7–131mo agoW
LPH13–62mo agoLLPH9–132mo agoL
AM14–166mo agoex-Sashi Academy on Dust2
no recent maps
AncientEX- ban57%4-30%0-2
Anubisdecider100%3-050%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: mellren Cache · ex-Sashi Academy Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
mellren61%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: mellren 58% · Inferno: mellren 54% toss-up · Anubis: mellren 60%Whymellren hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesmellren 61%: 2-0 32%, 2-1 30% · ex-Sashi Academy 39%: 2-1 20%, 2-0 19%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
mellren 61%mellren are the clearer side here: the most likely result is mellren 2-0.39% ex-Sashi Academy
Mirage
mellren58%ex-Sashi Academy42%
8-2record1-1
80%win50%
52%CT win56%
52%T win38%
50%pistol75%
70%convert33%
Inferno
mellren54%ex-Sashi Academy46%
4-2record1-1
67%win50%
51%CT win57%
52%T win50%
42%pistol50%
80%convert100%
Anubis
mellren60%ex-Sashi Academy40%
3-0record1-1
100%win50%
67%CT win58%
54%T win55%
33%pistol50%
100%convert50%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MELct
MELt
EX-ct
EX-t
MELpistol
MELconv
MELeco
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
Miragepool
52%55/105
52%61/117
56%10/18
38%9/24
50%10/20
70%7/10
10%1/10
75%3/4
33%1/3
0%0/1
Infernopool
51%32/63
52%32/62
57%13/23
50%12/24
42%5/12
80%4/5
0%0/7
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Anubispool
67%24/36
54%15/28
58%14/24
55%11/20
33%2/6
100%2/2
75%3/4
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
Nukeban
44%8/18
27%6/22
73%8/11
29%7/24
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
25%3/12
0%0/4
n/a
n/a
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
Dust2ban
55%47/85
50%44/88
n/a
n/a
25%4/16
100%4/4
25%3/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ancientban
44%31/71
59%43/73
6%1/16
54%13/24
29%4/14
100%4/4
0%0/10
25%1/4
100%1/1
0%0/3
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ex-Sashi Academy wins more pistol rounds: 58% vs 45%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → mellren usually win the next round too (76% vs 57%). Lose the pistol → mellren fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
mellren
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/23 (48%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 23 maps they won, 11 (48%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 48% of their wins were comebacks, not 48% of all games.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 downvs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs BERGMiragefrom 5 downvs LPHInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/13 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 13 maps they lost, 3 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs PUREAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs AMDust214-16vs TrickstersMirage19-16vs TrickstersAncient16-14vs Bushido WildcatsMirage16-12vs BERGMirage16-14
ex-Sashi Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/4 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 2 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs MisaInfernofrom 6 downvs MisaMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/7 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 2 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Noir VerseAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs SAW YoungstersInfernoled 3 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MisaInfernofrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Noir VerseAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi45% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT45% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs SAW YoungstersInferno14-16vs MisaAnubis23-25