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Predictions / Mai Tai vs Permitta · match preview
Mai Tai vs Permitta: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 Closed Qualifier
MAI
Mai Tai
World #– · 7-18
VS
2026-09-09 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Permitta
World #102 · 9-11
35%65%
The call
Permitta are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Mai Tai. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Permitta, record slightly favours Permitta, form clearly favours Permitta, firepower slightly favours Permitta, head-to-head clearly favours Permitta.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Mai TaipullPermitta
Team strength1392
148168/32 PER
Track record7–18
9–1167/33 PER
Recent formLLLLW
LWWLL75/25 PER
Roster rating1.03
1.0560/40 PER
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 PER
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 91% our own signal (55 maps of Mai Tai, 46 of Permitta). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Permitta leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Permitta to beat Mai Tai, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Mai Tai
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
WBT#660-20-2
Mai Tai vs WBT
Aug 18LAnubis6-13Ancient10-13Permitta vs WBT
Aug 30LNuke7-13Dust217-19
Bushido Wildcats#730-20-4
Mai Tai vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 2LNuke5-13Dust27-13
UNiTY#940-41-2
Permitta vs UNiTY
Aug 17LAncient16-19Cache13-9Anubis17-19
Misa#1243-42-0
Mai Tai vs Misa
Aug 31LDust210-13Mirage11-13Aug 15LAnubis13-11Mirage7-13Cache7-13Jul 26WMirage13-10Cache13-9Permitta vs Misa
Aug 27WCache16-13Ancient13-3Firepower
roster ratingsMai Tai · avg 1.03 · top +0.25
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Mai Tai vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMAIPER
InfernoMAI bann/a0gn/a0g
Mai Tai on Inferno
no recent maps
Permitta on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2PER ban33%2-40%0-4
MirageMAI pick38%6-1063%5-3
NukePER pick29%2-542%5-7
AnubisMAI ban17%1-580%4-1
AncientPER ban57%4-333%3-6
Cachedecider40%2-383%5-1
Each team's usual first ban: Mai Tai Inferno · Permitta Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Permitta77%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Permitta 70% clear · Nuke: Permitta 60% · Cache: Permitta 75% clearWhyPermitta hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesMai Tai 23%: 2-0 12%, 2-1 11% · Permitta 77%: 2-0 42%, 2-1 34%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Mai Tai 23%Permitta are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Permitta 2-0.77% Permitta
Mirage
Mai Tai30%Permitta70%
6-10record5-3
38%win63%
51%CT win54%
49%T win37%
44%pistol44%
71%convert71%
Nuke
Mai Tai40%Permitta60%
2-5record5-7
29%win42%
44%CT win59%
33%T win46%
50%pistol63%
43%convert87%
Cache
Mai Tai25%Permitta75%
2-3record5-1
40%win83%
57%CT win56%
39%T win56%
40%pistol67%
100%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MAIct
MAIt
PERct
PERt
MAIpistol
MAIconv
MAIeco
PERpistol
PERconv
PEReco
Miragepool
51%80/157
49%95/192
54%47/87
37%32/86
44%14/32
71%10/14
22%4/18
44%7/16
71%5/7
22%2/9
Nukepool
44%32/73
33%19/57
59%60/102
46%66/144
50%7/14
43%3/7
0%0/7
63%15/24
87%13/15
22%2/9
Cachepool
57%32/56
39%19/49
56%35/62
56%35/63
40%4/10
100%4/4
0%0/6
67%8/12
100%8/8
75%3/4
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2ban
50%36/72
35%21/60
38%18/48
43%16/37
42%5/12
80%4/5
14%1/7
25%2/8
100%2/2
0%0/5
Anubisban
39%26/67
52%36/69
48%29/60
65%34/52
58%7/12
86%6/7
60%3/5
60%6/10
100%6/6
25%1/4
Ancientban
52%41/79
53%33/62
44%40/91
51%53/103
57%8/14
100%8/8
17%1/6
44%8/18
88%7/8
40%4/10
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Permitta wins more pistol rounds: 58% vs 45%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Permitta usually win the next round too (87% vs 68%). Lose the pistol → Permitta fight back to win the next round more often (32% vs 13%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Mai Tai
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/17 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 17 maps they won, 6 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs eternal premiumDust2from 5 downvs BERGMiragefrom 5 downvs ROUNDSAncientfrom 3 downvs ROUNDSNukefrom 3 downvs MisaMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/30 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 30 maps they lost, 10 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Spirit AcademyAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13vs eternal premiumMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs MisaDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs HonvédDust2led 4 · lost 11-13vs BASEMENT BOYSMirageled 4 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs eternal premiumDust2from 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Spirit AcademyAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs eternal premiumMirage13-16vs BASEMENT BOYSMirage14-16vs UNiTYMirage14-16vs UNiTYAnubis13-16vs ENCEAnubis14-16
Permitta
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/22 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 22 maps they won, 6 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs G2 AresCachefrom 6 downvs G2 AresAnubisfrom 6 downvs AzuolasMiragefrom 5 downvs UNiTYCachefrom 4 downvs MisaCachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/22 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 22 maps they lost, 6 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNiTYAnubisled 6 · lost 17-19vs UNiTYAncientled 5 · lost 16-19vs HAVUNukeled 4 · lost 17-19vs OGDust2led 3 · lost 11-13vs OGAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresCachefrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNiTYAnubisled 6 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi45% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT45% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs HAVUNuke17-19vs UNiTYAncient16-19vs UNiTYAnubis17-19vs G2 AresMirage16-14vs MisaCache16-13