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Predictions / Nexus vs Spirit Academy · match preview
Nexus vs Spirit Academy: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
Nexus
World #142 · 15-20
VS
2026-09-17 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
Spirit Academy
World #109 · 13-9
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
48%52%
44%
2.071.62Market · 2 books
56%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. Bookmakers lean Spirit Academy at 56%. Strength slightly favours Spirit Academy, record slightly favours Spirit Academy, form clearly favours Spirit Academy.
Likely mapsAnubis · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NexuspullSpirit Academy
Team strength1482
152860/40 SPI
Track record15–20
13–961/39 SPI
Recent formLLLLW
LWWLW77/23 SPI
Roster rating1.11
1.0953/47 SPI
Bookmakers imply 44% for Nexus (2.07 / 1.62); we land 4 points higher at 48%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 92% our own signal (75 maps of Nexus, 49 of Spirit Academy).
Bottom line: Spirit Academy to beat Nexus, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNexus · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Spirit Academy · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Nexus
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Inner Circle#240-20-2
Nexus vs Inner Circle
Mar 29LMirage11-13Ancient14-16Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle
Jun 18LNuke7-13Dust21-13
Betclic#481-22-1
Nexus vs Betclic
Feb 26LOverpass13-8Anubis11-13Ancient11-13Spirit Academy vs Betclic
Jun 7WMirage8-13Nuke19-17Overpass13-6
ex-RUSTEC#671-20-2
Nexus vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 16LDust29-13Mirage13-8Cache8-13Spirit Academy vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 30LCache6-13Dust213-16
Bushido Wildcats#763-50-2
Nexus vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 16LDust29-13Anubis7-13Feb 6WOverpass10-13Inferno13-5Dust213-4Feb 4LAnubis7-13Dust213-11Inferno7-13Spirit Academy vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 5LNuke4-13Dust27-13
Noir Verse#1462-01-2
Nexus vs Noir Verse
Jun 14WMirage13-3Overpass13-6Spirit Academy vs Noir Verse
Sep 9LCache12-16Ancient13-10Dust213-16
aimclub#1731-24-0
Nexus vs aimclub
Mar 24LDust211-13Inferno16-14Ancient4-13Map lab
Spirit Academy77%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit Academy 2-0
If the veto goes
Nexus 23%how the series ends77% Spirit Academy
6%2-056%
17%2-121%
Nexus33%6-8vsSpirit Academy67%3-0
43%Win100%
49%CT67%
55%T45%
46%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Nexus17%5-8vsSpirit Academy83%9-2
38%Win82%
49%CT63%
48%T49%
54%Pistol45%
71%Conv90%
Nexus45%1-2vsSpirit Academy55%4-4
33%Win50%
50%CT57%
52%T47%
83%Pistol50%
80%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NexusAnubisSpirit Academy
49%CT side67%
55%T side45%
46%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
27%After loss0%
NexusAncientSpirit Academy
49%CT side63%
48%T side49%
54%Pistol45%
71%After win90%
8%After loss33%
NexusCacheSpirit Academy
50%CT side57%
52%T side47%
83%Pistol50%
80%After win88%
0%After loss13%
Pistol rounds53% · 48% · Nexus win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 90% · Spirit Academy keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 22% · Spirit Academy fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nexus vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Spirit Academy habitually bans Inferno, Nexus's strongest maps (Inferno all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 20/22), not an opponent read, so expect Nexus to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapNEXSPI
NukeNEX ban0%0-133%3-6
InfernoSPI ban62%8-5n/a0g
Nexus on Inferno
L
G2 Ares15–191mo agoW
GamersLab13–51mo agoL
Metizport3–133mo agoL
Alliance9–133mo agoW
PURE13–113mo agoWaimclub16–146mo agoWAlliance16–146mo agoW
Lazer Cats13–77mo agoSpirit Academy on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisNEX pick43%6-8100%3-0
AncientSPI pick38%5-882%9-2
Dust2NEX ban31%4-945%5-6
MirageSPI ban56%5-450%3-3
Cachedecider33%1-250%4-4
Each team's usual first ban: Nexus Nuke · Spirit Academy Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nexus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/33 (18%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 33 maps they won, 6 (18%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 18% of their wins were comebacks, not 18% of all games.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 downvs AllianceAnubisfrom 5 downvs PUREAnubisfrom 4 downvs GamersLabDust2from 4 downvs AllianceInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/41 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 41 maps they lost, 14 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs kONODust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs Inner CircleAncientled 5 · lost 14-16vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAncient15-19vs AllianceInferno16-14vs aimclubInferno16-14vs Inner CircleAncient14-16vs PUREMirage12-16
Spirit Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/28 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 28 maps they won, 14 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 downvs aimclubDust2from 7 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 6 downvs Saint SinnersNukefrom 5 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/21 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 8 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs Noir VerseCacheled 5 · lost 12-16vs Just PlayersDust2led 4 · lost 13-16vs PermittaNukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs Just PlayersNukeled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs BetclicNuke19-17vs Just PlayersDust213-16vs Young TigeRESDust225-22vs Nuclear TigeRESCache13-16vs ex-RUSTECDust213-16