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Predictions / BAKS vs ex-RUSTEC · match preview
BAKS vs ex-RUSTEC: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
BAKS
World #83 · 12-10
VS
2026-09-18 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
ex-RUSTEC
World #67 · 29-18
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
50%50%
47%
1.971.72Market · 2 books
53%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 53%. Form slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsCache · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BAKSpullex-RUSTEC
Team strength1568156750/50
Track record12–10
29–1855/45 BAK
Recent formLWLWW
WLWWW59/41 EX-
Roster rating1.1
1.1282/18 EX-
Bookmakers imply 47% for BAKS (1.97 / 1.72); we land 3 points higher at 50%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (55 maps of BAKS, 211 of ex-RUSTEC).
Bottom line: BAKS to beat ex-RUSTEC, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBAKS · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| whisper★ | 1.13 | 76.7 | 72.4% | 62% | 1.18 |
| turbo | 1.07 | 75.7 | 73.2% | 62% | 1.17 |
| Norwi | 0.95 | 73.2 | 69.2% | 47% | 1.07 |
| danistzz | 1.12 | 69.7 | 74.6% | 38% | 1.05 |
| xdENiSZERA | 1.01 | 70.2 | 73.4% | 55% | 1.02 |
ex-RUSTEC · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.19 | 82.2 | 74.1% | 68% | 1.23 |
| youka | 1.27 | 73.9 | 72.6% | 36% | 1.21 |
| shalfey | 1.11 | 75.6 | 74.5% | 60% | 1.15 |
| jakekeS | 0.93 | 69.8 | 72.9% | 56% | 1.02 |
| Brilliance | 0.85 | 70.2 | 69.5% | 56% | 0.99 |
Recent form
BAKS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FORZE Reload#752-00-4
BAKS vs FORZE Reload
Sep 13WCache13-8Nuke19-17
BET-M#772-00-2
BAKS vs BET-M
Jul 28WAncient13-8Inferno13-6ex-RUSTEC vs BET-M
Aug 7LNuke14-16Anubis3-13EX-ex-RUBY#1042-10-2
BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5ex-RUSTEC vs ex-RUBY
Jul 27LCache9-13Nuke12-16
Spirit Academy#1092-02-0
BAKS vs Spirit Academy
Sep 15WMirage13-11Cache13-9ex-RUSTEC vs Spirit Academy
Aug 30WCache13-6Dust216-13
Misa#1103-32-1
ex-RUSTEC vs Misa
Sep 13WInferno13-16Anubis13-8Dust213-8
SPARTA1-20-2
BAKS vs SPARTA
Sep 16LAncient19-16Dust25-13Inferno3-13ex-RUSTEC vs SPARTA
Aug 1LDust28-13Cache11-13Map lab
BAKS59%to win the Bo3 · most likely BAKS 2-1
If the veto goes
BAKS 59%how the series ends41% ex-RUSTEC
28%2-017%
31%2-124%
BAKS71%9-3vsex-RUSTEC29%6-6
75%Win50%
59%CT55%
54%T53%
54%Pistol54%
92%Conv92%
BAKS39%6-6vsex-RUSTEC61%19-12
50%Win61%
42%CT56%
60%T50%
50%Pistol48%
83%Conv77%
BAKS57%5-5vsex-RUSTEC43%9-12
50%Win43%
57%CT54%
39%T44%
55%Pistol52%
82%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BAKSCacheex-RUSTEC
59%CT side55%
54%T side53%
54%Pistol54%
92%After win92%
18%After loss27%
BAKSDust2ex-RUSTEC
42%CT side56%
60%T side50%
50%Pistol48%
83%After win77%
8%After loss19%
BAKSNukeex-RUSTEC
57%CT side54%
39%T side44%
55%Pistol52%
82%After win86%
22%After loss5%
Pistol rounds53% · 51% · level, no edge
After a won pistol86% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol16% · 16% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BAKS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
ex-RUSTEC habitually bans Ancient, BAKS's strongest maps (Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 41/47), not an opponent read, so expect BAKS to fight the veto for Cache.
MapBAKEX-
AnubisBAK bann/a0g67%14-7
BAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientEX- ban83%5-1n/a0g
BAKS on Ancient
WSPARTA19–161d agoWex-RUBY13–54d agoL
WBT7–1317d agoWBET-M13–82mo agoW
TDK13–82mo agoW
ReThink13–63mo agoex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
CacheBAK pick75%9-350%6-6
Dust2EX- pick50%6-661%19-12
MirageBAK ban50%3-354%7-6
InfernoEX- ban50%4-442%5-7
Each team's usual first ban: BAKS Anubis · ex-RUSTEC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/32 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 8 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 downvs eternal premiumMiragefrom 5 downvs XcityInfernofrom 4 downvs MisaDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/23 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 5 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs CYBERSHOKECacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs TDKDust2led 3 · lost 8-13vs WBTNukeled 3 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K28Dust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs FORZE ReloadNuke19-17
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/60 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 60 maps they won, 17 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs NexusDust2from 6 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/50 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 15 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FortressNukefrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16