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Predictions / Leo vs Spirit Academy · match preview
Leo vs Spirit Academy: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
46%54%
50%
1.831.83Market · 7 books
50%The call
Spirit Academy are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Leo. Bookmakers lean Leo at 50%. Strength slightly favours Spirit Academy, record slightly favours Spirit Academy, form slightly favours Spirit Academy, firepower clearly favours Spirit Academy.
Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LeopullSpirit Academy
Team strength1500
154059/41 SPI
Track record48–50
15–1061/39 SPI
Recent formWLLLW
WLWLW58/42 SPI
Roster rating1.09
1.1175/25 SPI
Bookmakers imply 50% for Leo (1.83 / 1.83); we land 4 points lower at 46%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (245 maps of Leo, 55 of Spirit Academy).
Bottom line: Spirit Academy to beat Leo, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLeo · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Spirit Academy · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Leo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nuclear TigeRES#562-00-1
Leo vs Nuclear TigeRES
Feb 18WDust219-16Ancient13-5Spirit Academy vs Nuclear TigeRES
Aug 24LCache13-16
ex-RUSTEC#641-40-2
Spirit Academy vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 30LCache6-13Dust213-16
Bushido Wildcats#727-40-2
Leo vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 15WDust214-16Nuke13-9Cache13-11Aug 20WNuke13-9Mirage3-13Dust213-2Aug 4LNuke6-13Dust213-7Anubis1-13+1 earlier meeting
Spirit Academy vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 5LNuke4-13Dust27-13
benched gods#1472-12-1
Leo vs benched gods
Aug 14WCache13-3Ancient9-13Anubis13-10Spirit Academy vs benched gods
Sep 14WAncient7-13Cache13-9Mirage13-10PSYPsychoFace#1946-21-2
Leo vs PsychoFace
Sep 5WDust28-13Nuke13-9Anubis16-13Jun 16WAnubis3-13Nuke13-11Dust213-11May 18WAnubis13-6Dust222-18Spirit Academy vs PsychoFace
Jul 17LNuke3-13Cache13-9Dust20-13SAISaint Sinners2-14-0
Leo vs Saint Sinners
Sep 23WMirage10-13Nuke13-8Ancient13-3Map lab
Spirit Academy72%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit Academy 2-0
If the veto goes
Leo 28%how the series ends72% Spirit Academy
10%2-039%
18%2-133%
Leo51%36-30vsSpirit Academy49%7-6
55%Win54%
51%CT53%
53%T50%
49%Pistol38%
80%Conv90%
Leo20%19-23vsSpirit Academy80%9-2
45%Win82%
52%CT63%
46%T49%
35%Pistol45%
83%Conv90%
Leo36%3-5vsSpirit Academy64%5-4
38%Win56%
44%CT58%
54%T48%
69%Pistol44%
100%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LeoDust2Spirit Academy
51%CT side53%
53%T side50%
49%Pistol38%
80%After win90%
18%After loss20%
LeoAncientSpirit Academy
52%CT side63%
46%T side49%
35%Pistol45%
83%After win90%
9%After loss33%
LeoCacheSpirit Academy
44%CT side58%
54%T side48%
69%Pistol44%
100%After win88%
20%After loss10%
Pistol rounds45% · 42% · Leo win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 89% · Spirit Academy keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol14% · 22% · Spirit Academy fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Leo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLEOSPI
MirageLEO ban47%7-843%3-4
InfernoSPI ban46%6-7n/a0g
Leo on Inferno
W
HAVU13–84mo agoW
megoshort13–36mo agoL
Rebels9–136mo agoL
MANA11–136mo agoW
BIG EQUIPA13–46mo agoW
ex-Zero Tenacity13–67mo agoL
BIG7–137mo agoW
Lazer Cats13–107mo agoSpirit Academy on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2LEO pick55%36-3054%7-6
AncientSPI pick45%19-2382%9-2
AnubisLEO ban32%12-26100%3-0
NukeSPI ban62%26-1636%4-7
Each team's usual first ban: Leo Mirage · Spirit Academy Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/112 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 112 maps they won, 29 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 6 downvs QWENTRYDust2from 6 downvs ASTRALDust2from 5 downvs AimhausDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i37/117 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 117 maps they lost, 37 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNiTYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs WWAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs UrsaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs PhantomAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNiTYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16
Spirit Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/32 (47%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 15 (47%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 47% of their wins were comebacks, not 47% of all games.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 downvs aimclubDust2from 7 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 6 downvs Saint SinnersNukefrom 5 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/23 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 9 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 14-16vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs Noir VerseCacheled 5 · lost 12-16vs Just PlayersDust2led 4 · lost 13-16vs PermittaNukeled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs BetclicNuke19-17vs Just PlayersDust213-16vs Young TigeRESDust225-22vs Nuclear TigeRESCache13-16vs ex-RUSTECDust213-16