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Predictions / GamerLegion vs Luminosity · match preview
GamerLegion vs Luminosity: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
GamerLegion
World #20 · 32-25
VS
2026-09-17 09:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
Luminosity
World #37 · 3-6
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
64%36%
54%
1.722.01Market · 2 books
46%The call
GamerLegion are favoured: our model gives them 64% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean GamerLegion at 54%. Strength slightly favours GamerLegion, record slightly favours GamerLegion, form clearly favours Luminosity, firepower slightly favours Luminosity, head-to-head slightly favours GamerLegion.
Likely mapsInferno · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
GamerLegionpullLuminosity
Team strength1561
150362/38 GAM
Track record32–25
3–665/35 GAM
Recent formLLLLW
LWWWL79/21 LUM
Roster rating1.02
1.0761/39 LUM
Head-to-head1 maps
0 maps67/33 GAM
Bookmakers imply 54% for GamerLegion (1.72 / 2.01); we land 10 points higher at 64%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 82% our own signal (121 maps of GamerLegion, 19 of Luminosity). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: GamerLegion leads 1–0.
Bottom line: GamerLegion to beat Luminosity, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGamerLegion · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Luminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainwaker★ | 1 | 72.8 | 69.8% | 52% | 1.11 |
| afro | 1.11 | 68 | 72.2% | 28% | 1.09 |
| lux | 0.91 | 74.6 | 71.2% | 57% | 1.08 |
| yxngstxr | 1.03 | 69.1 | 75.9% | 57% | 1.05 |
| AZUWU | 0.93 | 68.4 | 70.9% | 61% | 1.04 |
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
M80#262-02-3
GamerLegion vs M80
Jan 5WMirage13-9Inferno13-11
Ninjas in Pyjamas#293-31-2
GamerLegion vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Apr 2WNuke6-13Mirage13-11Ancient13-11Feb 8LNuke10-13Mirage16-12Ancient10-13Luminosity vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 3LNuke13-7Inferno10-13Mirage7-13Map lab
GamerLegion63%to win the Bo3 · most likely GamerLegion 2-1
If the veto goes
GamerLegion 63%how the series ends37% Luminosity
29%2-015%
34%2-122%
GamerLegion76%16-9vsLuminosity24%1-4
64%Win20%
52%CT50%
50%T45%
38%Pistol60%
74%Conv100%
GamerLegion39%11-11vsLuminosity61%3-1
50%Win75%
58%CT62%
45%T53%
55%Pistol25%
79%Conv50%
GamerLegion61%13-8vsLuminosity39%0-2
62%Win0%
56%CT25%
48%T42%
52%Pistol50%
86%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
GamerLegionInfernoLuminosity
52%CT side50%
50%T side45%
38%Pistol60%
74%After win100%
26%After loss25%
GamerLegionNukeLuminosity
58%CT side62%
45%T side53%
55%Pistol25%
79%After win50%
10%After loss17%
GamerLegionAncientLuminosity
56%CT side25%
48%T side42%
52%Pistol50%
86%After win50%
25%After loss0%
Pistol rounds48% · 45% · GamerLegion win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 80% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol21% · 17% · GamerLegion fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, GamerLegion vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Luminosity habitually bans Cache, GamerLegion's strongest maps (Inferno, Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Cache 7/9), not an opponent read, so expect GamerLegion to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapGAMLUM
Dust2GAM ban10%1-940%2-3
CacheLUM ban100%2-00%0-1
Luminosity on Cache
LM8010–133d agoInfernoGAM pick64%16-920%1-4
NukeLUM pick50%11-1175%3-1
AnubisGAM ban25%1-3n/a0g
GamerLegion on Anubis
L
Natus Vincere9–134mo agoL
BetBoom8–136mo agoL
Alliance14–166mo agoW
illwill13–107mo agoLuminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageLUM ban52%15-1450%1-1
Ancientdecider62%13-80%0-2
Each team's usual first ban: GamerLegion Dust2 · Luminosity Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
GamerLegion
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/64 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 64 maps they won, 19 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 downvs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 7 downvs BC.GameInfernofrom 5 downvs VenomNukefrom 4 downvs AuroraInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/57 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 18 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs B8Nukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs AcendMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs VitalityDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs G2Infernoled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZNukeled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs VenomTrain16-14vs AuroraInferno16-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirage16-12vs AvantiAncient16-12vs SINNERSMirage16-19
Luminosity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/7 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 2 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs LPNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/12 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 4 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs M80Dust2led 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19