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Predictions / Metizport vs Luminosity · match preview
Metizport vs Luminosity: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
Metizport
World #68 · 43-33
VS
2026-09-17 10:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
Luminosity
World #37 · 3-6
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
69%31%
39%
2.361.53Market · 2 books
61%The call · high confidence
Metizport are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean Luminosity at 61%. Strength clearly favours Metizport, record slightly favours Metizport, firepower clearly favours Metizport.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MetizportpullLuminosity
Team strength1649
150378/22 MET
Track record43–33
3–668/32 MET
Recent formLWWWW
LWWWL52/48 MET
Roster rating1.1
1.0775/25 MET
Bookmakers imply 39% for Metizport (2.36 / 1.53); we land 30 points higher at 69%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 82% our own signal (172 maps of Metizport, 19 of Luminosity).
Bottom line: Metizport to beat Luminosity, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMetizport · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Luminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainwaker★ | 1 | 72.8 | 69.8% | 52% | 1.11 |
| afro | 1.11 | 68 | 72.2% | 28% | 1.09 |
| lux | 0.91 | 74.6 | 71.2% | 57% | 1.08 |
| yxngstxr | 1.03 | 69.1 | 75.9% | 57% | 1.05 |
| AZUWU | 0.93 | 68.4 | 70.9% | 61% | 1.04 |
Recent form
Metizport
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
GamerLegion#200-20-1
Metizport vs GamerLegion
Mar 23LInferno17-19Mirage10-13Luminosity vs GamerLegion
Aug 12LNuke3-13Map lab
Metizport53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Metizport 2-1
If the veto goes
Metizport 53%how the series ends47% Luminosity
23%2-027%
30%2-120%
Metizport44%24-17vsLuminosity56%3-1
59%Win75%
52%CT62%
50%T53%
41%Pistol25%
85%Conv50%
Metizport51%12-10vsLuminosity49%1-1
55%Win50%
54%CT46%
44%T56%
64%Pistol50%
79%Conv50%
Metizport60%13-9vsLuminosity40%0-2
59%Win0%
51%CT25%
53%T42%
52%Pistol50%
83%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MetizportNukeLuminosity
52%CT side62%
50%T side53%
41%Pistol25%
85%After win50%
27%After loss17%
MetizportMirageLuminosity
54%CT side46%
44%T side56%
64%Pistol50%
79%After win50%
19%After loss0%
MetizportAncientLuminosity
51%CT side25%
53%T side42%
52%Pistol50%
83%After win50%
24%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 38% · Metizport win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 50% · Metizport keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol25% · 10% · Metizport fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Metizport vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Luminosity habitually bans Anubis & Cache, two of Metizport's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 5/9, Cache 7/9), not an opponent read, so expect Metizport to fight the veto for Nuke.
MapMETLUM
Dust2MET ban36%5-940%2-3
CacheLUM ban60%3-20%0-1
Metizport on Cache
W
ex-Zero Tenacity13–63d agoW
Sashi16–1312d agoL
ASTRAL9–1316d agoWColor13–1127d agoL
Liquid9–131mo agoLuminosity on Cache
L
M8010–133d agoNukeMET pick59%24-1775%3-1
MirageLUM pick55%12-1050%1-1
AnubisMET ban71%5-2n/a0g
Metizport on Anubis
W
Walczaki13–914d agoW
PCIFIC13–715d agoLASTRAL10–1316d agoW
Fire Flux13–728d agoW
DONSTU16–1429d agoL
fnatic8–131mo agoW
Alliance13–53mo agoLuminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoLUM ban62%21-1320%1-4
Ancientdecider59%13-90%0-2
Each team's usual first ban: Metizport Anubis · Luminosity Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Metizport
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/97 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 34 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs PrestigeAncientfrom 11 downvs OGInfernofrom 9 downvs SIXSEVENDust2from 7 downvs ALGOMiragefrom 7 downvs ENCE AcademyOverpassfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/74 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 22 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NemigaMirageled 8 · lost 14-16vs ex-Zero TenacityNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs FAVBETNukeled 5 · lost 17-19vs AcendDust2led 4 · lost 9-13vs FAVBETInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrestigeAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NemigaMirageled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs BebopMirage20-22vs SIXSEVENDust216-14vs AllianceNuke17-19vs Lazer CatsInferno16-13vs AaBOverpass16-13
Luminosity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/7 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 2 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs LPNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/12 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 4 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs M80Dust2led 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19