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Predictions / Luminosity vs M80 · match preview
Luminosity vs M80: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
Luminosity
World #37 · 3-6
VS
2026-09-17 14:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
M80
World #26 · 38-25
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
39%61%
48%
1.921.8Market · 2 books
52%The call
M80 are favoured: our model gives them 61% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean M80 at 52%. Strength clearly favours M80, record clearly favours M80, head-to-head slightly favours M80.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LuminositypullM80
Team strength1503
160871/29 M80
Track record3–6
38–2570/30 M80
Recent formLWWWL
WWLWW56/44 M80
Roster rating1.07
1.1254/46 M80
Head-to-head2 maps
3 maps57/43 M80
Bookmakers imply 48% for Luminosity (1.92 / 1.8); we land 9 points lower at 39%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 82% our own signal (19 maps of Luminosity, 133 of M80). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: M80 to beat Luminosity, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLuminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainwaker★ | 1 | 72.8 | 69.8% | 52% | 1.11 |
| afro | 1.11 | 68 | 72.2% | 28% | 1.09 |
| lux | 0.91 | 74.6 | 71.2% | 57% | 1.08 |
| yxngstxr | 1.03 | 69.1 | 75.9% | 57% | 1.05 |
| AZUWU | 0.93 | 68.4 | 70.9% | 61% | 1.04 |
M80 · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
GamerLegion#200-10-2
Luminosity vs GamerLegion
Aug 12LNuke3-13M80 vs GamerLegion
Jan 5LMirage9-13Inferno11-13
Ninjas in Pyjamas#291-22-3
Luminosity vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 3LNuke13-7Inferno10-13Mirage7-13
Lynn Vision#340-11-0
Luminosity vs Lynn Vision
Jul 2LInferno8-13M80 vs Lynn Vision
Jun 2WInferno13-8Map lab
M8069%to win the Bo3 · most likely M80 2-0
If the veto goes
Luminosity 31%how the series ends69% M80
11%2-044%
20%2-125%
Luminosity38%2-3vsM8062%15-11
40%Win58%
61%CT56%
57%T52%
80%Pistol56%
88%Conv90%
Luminosity28%1-4vsM8072%18-14
20%Win56%
50%CT50%
45%T56%
60%Pistol50%
100%Conv81%
Luminosity45%1-1vsM8055%21-11
50%Win66%
46%CT56%
56%T50%
50%Pistol44%
50%Conv82%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LuminosityDust2M80
61%CT side56%
57%T side52%
80%Pistol56%
88%After win90%
0%After loss17%
LuminosityInfernoM80
50%CT side50%
45%T side56%
60%Pistol50%
100%After win81%
25%After loss25%
LuminosityMirageM80
46%CT side56%
56%T side50%
50%Pistol44%
50%After win82%
0%After loss14%
Pistol rounds67% · 49% · Luminosity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 84% · Luminosity keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol13% · 19% · M80 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Luminosity vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
M80 habitually bans Nuke, Luminosity's strongest maps (Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 59/63), not an opponent read, so expect Luminosity to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapLUMM80
CacheLUM ban0%0-183%5-1
NukeM80 ban75%3-1n/a0g
M80 on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2LUM pick40%2-358%15-11
InfernoM80 pick20%1-456%18-14
AnubisLUM bann/a0g50%4-4
Luminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientM80 ban0%0-250%10-10
Miragedecider50%1-166%21-11
Each team's usual first ban: Luminosity Mirage · M80 Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Luminosity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/7 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 2 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs LPNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/12 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 4 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs M80Dust2led 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19
M80
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/79 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 22 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs VocaAnubisfrom 6 downvs Passion UAMiragefrom 5 downvs AuroraAnubisfrom 5 downvs WildcardDust2from 5 downvs NRGInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/54 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 54 maps they lost, 18 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsInfernoled 6 · lost 15-19vs VocaMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs LiquidMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs FalconsAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncientled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VocaAnubisfrom 6 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsInfernoled 6 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs LiquidMirage13-16vs WildcardDust216-14vs FalconsInferno15-19vs B8Inferno20-22vs LegacyInferno13-16