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Predictions / Falcons Force vs Honvéd · match preview
Falcons Force vs Honvéd: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
Falcons Force
World #131 · 18-22
VS
2026-09-18 17:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
Honvéd
World #129 · 29-31
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
68%32%
The call
Falcons Force are favoured: our model gives them 68% against Honvéd. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Falcons Force, form slightly favours Falcons Force, firepower clearly favours Falcons Force, head-to-head slightly favours Falcons Force.
Likely mapsCache · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Falcons ForcepullHonvéd
Team strength1502
145460/40 FAL
Track record18–2229–3150/50
Recent formWLLWL
LLLWL69/31 FAL
Roster rating1.09
1.286/14 FAL
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 FAL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (89 maps of Falcons Force, 142 of Honvéd). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Falcons Force leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Falcons Force to beat Honvéd, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFalcons Force · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| grecu★ | 1.17 | 72.4 | 72.4% | 38% | 1.16 |
| NucleonZ | 0.98 | 76.8 | 68.8% | 62% | 1.1 |
| VENO | 0.94 | 71.3 | 70.4% | 59% | 1.09 |
| NaToSaphiX | 0.94 | 72.8 | 75% | 58% | 1.07 |
| Tapewaare | 0.89 | 70 | 69.4% | 63% | 1.01 |
Honvéd · avg 1.2 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Falcons Force
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
INOX Division#591-20-2
Falcons Force vs INOX Division
Jul 31LCache13-11Inferno11-13Nuke8-13Honvéd vs INOX Division
Aug 22LAncient4-13Inferno9-13
G2 Ares#1032-02-1
Falcons Force vs G2 Ares
May 17WDust213-10Mirage13-10Honvéd vs G2 Ares
Sep 13WInferno7-13Dust213-8Mirage13-11
Misa#1104-12-1
Honvéd vs Misa
Jul 21WDust213-11Mirage8-13Anubis16-13
ENCE#1201-41-4
mellren#1302-00-2
Falcons Force vs mellren
Sep 10WInferno13-9Mirage13-11Honvéd vs mellren
Aug 16LInferno11-13Dust211-13
Vexar#1431-21-2
Falcons Force vs Vexar
Aug 26LAnubis22-20Mirage11-13Nuke11-13Honvéd vs Vexar
Jul 25LAncient13-11Dust213-16Mirage5-13BEBBebop#1652-15-3
Falcons Force vs Bebop
Jul 27WDust23-13Cache13-6Inferno13-5
SPARTA0-20-4
Falcons Force vs SPARTA
May 22LAncient16-19Dust26-13Map lab
Falcons Force64%to win the Bo3 · most likely Falcons Force 2-0
If the veto goes
Falcons Force 64%how the series ends36% Honvéd
46%2-07%
18%2-129%
Falcons Force85%6-1vsHonvéd15%4-7
86%Win36%
69%CT54%
49%T43%
64%Pistol59%
89%Conv92%
Falcons Force54%10-9vsHonvéd46%18-19
53%Win49%
56%CT56%
49%T41%
58%Pistol58%
82%Conv79%
Falcons Force39%6-9vsHonvéd61%9-8
40%Win53%
46%CT53%
52%T45%
60%Pistol65%
78%Conv73%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Falcons ForceCacheHonvéd
69%CT side54%
49%T side43%
64%Pistol59%
89%After win92%
20%After loss0%
Falcons ForceMirageHonvéd
56%CT side56%
49%T side41%
58%Pistol58%
82%After win79%
13%After loss10%
Falcons ForceAncientHonvéd
46%CT side53%
52%T side45%
60%Pistol65%
78%After win73%
36%After loss0%
Pistol rounds60% · 60% · level, no edge
After a won pistol82% · 79% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol22% · 6% · Falcons Force fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Falcons Force vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Honvéd habitually bans Anubis, Falcons Force's strongest maps (Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 34/62), not an opponent read, so expect Falcons Force to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapFALHON
Dust2FAL ban22%2-751%21-20
AnubisHON ban71%5-250%4-4
CacheFAL pick86%6-136%4-7
MirageHON pick53%10-949%18-19
NukeFAL ban15%2-1160%3-2
InfernoHON ban50%9-931%5-11
Ancientdecider40%6-953%9-8
Each team's usual first ban: Falcons Force Overpass · Honvéd Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Falcons Force
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/40 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 40 maps they won, 12 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs VexarAnubisfrom 6 downvs ZOTIXAncientfrom 6 downvs ENCEAnubisfrom 5 downvs BebopCachefrom 4 downvs MisaCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/48 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 20 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs SharksAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs OLDBOYS PLNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs TrafficPillsNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs FamalicãoDust2led 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarAnubisfrom 6 down · won 22-20
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs JiJieHaoInferno20-22vs FamalicãoDust212-16vs fnaticAnubis13-16vs AMAncient13-16vs SPARTAAncient16-19
Honvéd
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/64 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 64 maps they won, 20 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 8 downvs brazylijski luzMiragefrom 6 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 6 downvs Noir VerseDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/74 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 24 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs BebopCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-MANADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs MisaMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs TeletubisieDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs PUREDust216-14vs brazylijski luzAncient19-17vs TNCAncient15-19vs ex-MANAMirage13-16vs GenOneDust213-16