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Predictions / Teletubisie vs Vexar · match preview
Teletubisie vs Vexar: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
59%41%
The call
Teletubisie are favoured: our model gives them 59% against Vexar. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Teletubisie, record slightly favours Teletubisie, form slightly favours Teletubisie, firepower slightly favours Teletubisie.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
TeletubisiepullVexar
Team strength1528
148460/40 TEL
Track record2–2
17–1861/39 TEL
Recent formWWLL
WLLLL61/39 TEL
Roster rating1.13
1.0563/37 TEL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 72% our own signal (10 maps of Teletubisie, 84 of Vexar).
Bottom line: Teletubisie to beat Vexar, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsTeletubisie · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.31iStar gap: the best player rates 0.31 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Vexar · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| obsward★ | 1.2 | 79.8 | 71.8% | 64% | 1.25 |
| Bottega666 | 1.03 | 73.5 | 68.6% | 45% | 1.09 |
| ADntZ | 0.94 | 78.9 | 68.2% | 65% | 1.07 |
| datet | 0.88 | 70.5 | 68.7% | 60% | 0.99 |
| KEEMBO | 0.74 | 56.2 | 68.4% | 53% | 0.84 |
Recent form
Teletubisie
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ex-Zero Tenacity#822-00-2
Teletubisie vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 16WDust213-10Mirage13-5Vexar vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18Lseries0-2
Honvéd#1291-22-1
Teletubisie vs Honvéd
Sep 11LCache9-13Dust213-10Anubis7-13Vexar vs Honvéd
Jul 25WAncient11-13Dust216-13Mirage13-5Map lab
Teletubisie58%to win the Bo3 · most likely Teletubisie 2-0
If the veto goes
Teletubisie 58%how the series ends42% Vexar
29%2-021%
29%2-121%
Teletubisie58%2-0vsVexar42%7-7
100%Win50%
71%CT52%
58%T47%
75%Pistol36%
100%Conv90%
Teletubisie50%0-0thinVexar50%13-14
–Win48%
–CT50%
–T48%
–Pistol39%
–Conv86%
Teletubisie58%2-0vsVexar42%5-5
100%Win50%
50%CT48%
64%T48%
50%Pistol65%
100%Conv92%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
TeletubisieMirageVexar
71%CT side52%
58%T side47%
75%Pistol36%
100%After win90%
0%After loss6%
TeletubisieAncientVexar
–CT side50%
–T side48%
–Pistol39%
–After win86%
–After loss18%
TeletubisieDust2Vexar
50%CT side48%
64%T side48%
50%Pistol65%
100%After win92%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds63% · 43% · Teletubisie win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 89% · Teletubisie keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 12% · Vexar fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Teletubisie vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTELVEX
InfernoTEL bann/a0g75%6-2
Teletubisie on Inferno
no recent maps
CacheVEX ban0%0-2n/a0g
Vexar on Cache
no recent maps
MirageTEL pick100%2-050%7-7
AncientVEX pickn/a0g48%13-14
Teletubisie on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisTEL ban0%0-244%4-5
NukeVEX bann/a0g30%3-7
Teletubisie on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2decider100%2-050%5-5
Each team's usual first ban: Teletubisie Inferno · Vexar Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Teletubisie
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/4 (75%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 3 (75%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 75% of their wins were comebacks, not 75% of all games.vs HonvédDust2from 6 downvs fnaticMiragefrom 5 downvs ex-Zero TenacityDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/4 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HonvédDust2from 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni1 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Vexar
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/38 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 38 maps they won, 10 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs LavkedAncientfrom 6 downvs Young TigeRESAncientfrom 4 downvs Young TigeRESAnubisfrom 4 downvs ZOTIXAnubisfrom 4 downvs Falcons ForceMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/40 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 40 maps they lost, 16 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Falcons ForceAnubisled 6 · lost 20-22vs IllyriansAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs Basement BobsMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs HonvédAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAncientled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Falcons ForceAnubisled 6 · lost 20-22
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsAnubis16-14vs NEW VISIONAncient16-13vs HonvédDust216-13vs Falcons ForceAnubis20-22vs benched godsMirage14-16