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Predictions / INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity · match preview
INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
INOX Division
World #59 · 57-28
VS
2026-09-21 14:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
ex-Zero Tenacity
World #82 · 63-60
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
50%50%
49%
1.851.79Market · 2 books
51%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean ex-Zero Tenacity at 51%. Record slightly favours INOX Division, form slightly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, firepower clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, head-to-head slightly favours INOX Division.
Likely mapsInferno · Cache · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INOX Divisionpullex-Zero Tenacity
Team strength1595
162156/44 EX-
Track record57–28
63–6061/39 INO
Recent formLWLLW
WWLLL61/39 EX-
Roster rating1.14
1.187/13 EX-
Head-to-head8 maps
4 maps64/36 INO
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 49% for INOX Division (1.85 / 1.79) and we land at 50%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (207 maps of INOX Division, 300 of ex-Zero Tenacity). Head-to-head they've met 5 times: INOX Division leads 4–1.
Bottom line: INOX Division to beat ex-Zero Tenacity, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsINOX Division · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-Zero Tenacity · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
INOX Division
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents15d ago
INOX Division2 : 1 ex-Zero Tenacity!21d ago INOX Division2 : 0 ex-Zero Tenacity!21d ago INOX Division0 : 2 ex-Zero Tenacity!4mo ago INOX Division2 : 0 ex-Zero Tenacity!5mo ago INOX Division2 : 1 ex-Zero Tenacity!
INOX Division2 : 1 ex-Zero Tenacity!⚠ Different lineup
ex-Zero Tenacity
outbrutmonster
inRiiL3
INOX Division2 : 0 ex-Zero Tenacity!⚠ Different lineup
ex-Zero Tenacity
outbrutmonster
inRiiL3
INOX Division0 : 2 ex-Zero Tenacity!⚠ Different lineup
ex-Zero Tenacity
outbrutmonster
inRiiL3
INOX Division2 : 0 ex-Zero Tenacity!⚠ Different lineup
ex-Zero Tenacity
outaVN, brutmonster
inRiiL3, VLDN
INOX Division2 : 1 ex-Zero Tenacity!⚠ Different lineup
ex-Zero Tenacity
outaVN, brutmonster, emi
inDragon, RiiL3, VLDN
HOTU#281-21-2
INOX Division vs HOTU
May 12LNuke13-10Dust222-25Ancient6-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs HOTU
Mar 11LDust28-13Mirage13-9Overpass9-13
Nemesis#440-21-2
INOX Division vs Nemesis
May 26LInferno12-16Ancient6-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nemesis
Mar 17LInferno13-9Nuke9-13Mirage8-13
SINNERS#451-22-0
INOX Division vs SINNERS
Aug 1LCache13-8Inferno11-13Ancient9-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs SINNERS
Aug 29WMirage13-7Cache13-9
Nuclear TigeRES#471-20-2
INOX Division vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 9LAncient9-13Dust213-8Inferno4-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
May 7LMirage7-13Anubis6-13
GenOne#564-13-2
Acend#585-32-3
ex-RUSTEC#674-02-0
ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 18WCache13-5Mirage13-8
Phantom#722-12-0
INOX Division vs Phantom
Jul 26WAncient13-7Inferno3-13Nuke13-8ex-Zero Tenacity vs Phantom
Aug 30WDust213-8Nuke13-5Map lab
ex-Zero Tenacity57%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-Zero Tenacity 2-0
If the veto goes
INOX Division 43%how the series ends57% ex-Zero Tenacity
10%2-037%
33%2-120%
INOX Division55%29-16vsex-Zero Tenacity45%31-21
64%Win60%
54%CT54%
53%T53%
51%Pistol59%
72%Conv85%
INOX Division19%5-8vsex-Zero Tenacity81%16-5
38%Win76%
47%CT58%
44%T60%
58%Pistol55%
73%Conv95%
INOX Division62%30-14vsex-Zero Tenacity38%34-27
68%Win56%
61%CT56%
53%T48%
49%Pistol54%
79%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
INOX DivisionInfernoex-Zero Tenacity
54%CT side54%
53%T side53%
51%Pistol59%
72%After win85%
34%After loss28%
INOX DivisionCacheex-Zero Tenacity
47%CT side58%
44%T side60%
58%Pistol55%
73%After win95%
0%After loss16%
INOX DivisionNukeex-Zero Tenacity
61%CT side56%
53%T side48%
49%Pistol54%
79%After win79%
36%After loss30%
Pistol rounds51% · 56% · ex-Zero Tenacity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 84% · ex-Zero Tenacity keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol31% · 27% · INOX Division fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INOX Division vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
ex-Zero Tenacity habitually bans Ancient, INOX Division's strongest maps (Dust2, Ancient, Anubis, Inferno, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 122/125), not an opponent read, so expect INOX Division to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapINOEX-
MirageINO bann/a0g41%18-26
INOX Division on Mirage
no recent maps
AncientEX- ban62%21-13n/a0g
INOX Division on Ancient
L
UPGRADE14–162d agoW
Drama13–85d agoL
FORZE Reload9–137d agoWex-RUBY13–97d agoWAcend13–39d agoLNuclear TigeRES9–1311d agoW
INFINITE13–1013d agoW
UNiTY13–1118d agoex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoINO pick64%29-1660%31-21
CacheEX- pick38%5-876%16-5
AnubisINO ban63%10-648%12-13
Dust2EX- ban66%27-1454%36-31
Nukedecider68%30-1456%34-27
Each team's usual first ban: INOX Division Mirage · ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
INOX Division
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/130 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 130 maps they won, 32 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 downvs SPARTAOverpassfrom 8 downvs MANANukefrom 7 downvs OmegaOverpassfrom 6 downvs HYPERSPIRITInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/77 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 77 maps they lost, 26 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22vs MANANukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs NemesisInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs The Last ResortCacheled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs TDKOverpass13-16vs WalczakiDust216-13vs ex-RUBYNuke19-22vs HOTUDust222-25vs SPARTANuke20-22
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i45/153 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 153 maps they won, 45 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 downvs HEROIC AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs LavkedDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i45/141 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 141 maps they lost, 45 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs Subtop De FranceDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16