Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / HEROIC vs Johnny Speeds · match preview
HEROIC vs Johnny Speeds: CS2 match prediction · Stake Pulse Beat II
HEROIC
World #32 · 40-31
VS
2026-09-22 10:00 UTC
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
Johnny Speeds
World #60 · 47-42
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
72%28%
77%
1.213.96Market · 2 books
23%The call · high confidence
HEROIC are favoured: our model gives them 72% against Johnny Speeds. Bookmakers lean HEROIC at 77%. Strength clearly favours HEROIC, firepower clearly favours HEROIC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
HEROICpullJohnny Speeds
Team strength1689
158471/29 HER
Track record40–31
47–4253/47 HER
Recent formLWWWLLWWWL50/50
Roster rating1.14
1.0876/24 HER
Bookmakers imply 77% for HEROIC (1.21 / 3.96); we land 5 points lower at 72%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (163 maps of HEROIC, 190 of Johnny Speeds).
Bottom line: HEROIC to beat Johnny Speeds, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsHEROIC · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nilo★ | 1.19 | 77.9 | 75% | 58% | 1.21 |
| MartinezSa | 1.29 | 70 | 75.6% | 39% | 1.2 |
| Brollan | 1.08 | 75.5 | 74.6% | 59% | 1.18 |
| susp | 0.93 | 70.1 | 73.7% | 56% | 1.07 |
| Chr1zN | 0.92 | 71.2 | 71.4% | 56% | 1.06 |
Johnny Speeds · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
HEROIC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
magic#173-20-2
Johnny Speeds vs magic
Jan 29LOverpass8-13Dust29-13
BIG#252-00-4
HEROIC vs BIG
Apr 24WDust213-9Overpass13-7
100 Thieves#352-13-4
HEROIC vs 100 Thieves
Feb 28WInferno10-13Nuke13-10Ancient13-9Johnny Speeds vs 100 Thieves
Jun 6LAncient13-8Mirage10-13Dust23-13Mar 9WOverpass13-9Inferno15-19Dust213-4Mar 8LNuke3-13
1win#383-32-2
K27#415-12-2
Nemesis#442-02-0
HEROIC vs Nemesis
Apr 2WNuke13-4Mirage13-7Johnny Speeds vs Nemesis
Apr 2Wseries2-0
Nuclear TigeRES#472-02-0
HEROIC vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 4WAncient13-6Dust219-17Johnny Speeds vs Nuclear TigeRES
Feb 10WInferno13-3Nuke13-10
Eternal Fire#513-30-2
Johnny Speeds vs Eternal Fire
May 9LAncient11-13Anubis10-13Map lab
HEROIC60%to win the Bo3 · most likely HEROIC 2-0
If the veto goes
HEROIC 60%how the series ends40% Johnny Speeds
35%2-014%
25%2-125%
HEROIC72%22-14vsJohnny Speeds28%14-24
61%Win37%
60%CT49%
49%T45%
46%Pistol49%
85%Conv81%
HEROIC49%15-13vsJohnny Speeds51%17-14
54%Win55%
53%CT52%
55%T54%
55%Pistol48%
94%Conv90%
HEROIC50%4-4thinJohnny Speeds50%0-0
50%Win–
40%CT–
59%T–
50%Pistol–
75%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
HEROICDust2Johnny Speeds
60%CT side49%
49%T side45%
46%Pistol49%
85%After win81%
15%After loss21%
HEROICInfernoJohnny Speeds
53%CT side52%
55%T side54%
55%Pistol48%
94%After win90%
36%After loss31%
HEROICCacheJohnny Speeds
40%CT side–
59%T side–
50%Pistol–
75%After win–
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds50% · 49% · level, no edge
After a won pistol88% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol21% · 25% · Johnny Speeds fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, HEROIC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapHERJOH
AnubisHER bann/a0g33%4-8
HEROIC on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeJOH ban59%19-1350%6-6
Dust2HER pick61%22-1437%14-24
InfernoJOH pick54%15-1355%17-14
AncientHER ban57%13-1067%10-5
MirageJOH ban58%15-1148%16-17
Cachedecider50%4-4n/a0g
HEROIC on Cache
WK2713–96d agoW
BESTIA13–77d agoWEternal Fire13–1012d agoL
3DMAX8–1314d agoW
ASTRAL13–111mo agoL
The MongolZ8–132mo agoL
HOTU6–132mo agoL3DMAX8–132mo agoJohnny Speeds on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: HEROIC Anubis · Johnny Speeds Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
HEROIC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/92 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 92 maps they won, 32 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs BIGDust2from 9 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 8 downvs Nuclear TigeRESDust2from 6 downvs 1winAncientfrom 6 downvs ASTRALCachefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/70 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 70 maps they lost, 20 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs AcendInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs MonteDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs Lynn VisionDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs Virtus.proMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BIGDust2from 9 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs paiNMirage16-14vs CYBERSHOKEDust216-13vs AstralisDust213-16vs MonteDust213-16vs MonteNuke20-22
Johnny Speeds
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/101 (21%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 101 maps they won, 21 (21%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 21% of their wins were comebacks, not 21% of all games.vs PrestigeMiragefrom 6 downvs MTXDust2from 6 downvs K27Dust2from 5 downvs The Last ResortOverpassfrom 5 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/87 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 87 maps they lost, 18 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ReThinkOverpassled 9 · lost 11-13vs STATETrainled 7 · lost 14-16vs illwillDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs MOUZ NXTAnubisled 6 · lost 12-16vs MetizportNukeled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrestigeMiragefrom 6 down · won 22-19
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ReThinkOverpassled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs PrestigeMirage22-19vs STATETrain14-16vs TrickedTrain14-16vs ex-RUBYOverpass17-19vs UrsaDust214-16