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Predictions / 100 Thieves vs EAC · match preview
100 Thieves vs EAC: CS2 match prediction · Stake Pulse Beat II
100 Thieves
World #35 · 44-25
VS
2026-09-23 10:00 UTC
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
EAC
World #66 · 24-27
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
72%28%
74%
1.253.65Market · 2 books
26%The call · high confidence
100 Thieves are favoured: our model gives them 72% against EAC. Bookmakers lean 100 Thieves at 74%. Strength clearly favours 100 Thieves, record slightly favours 100 Thieves, form slightly favours 100 Thieves.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
100 ThievespullEAC
Team strength1650
151876/24 100
Track record44–25
24–2764/36 100
Recent formLWWLL
LLWLL64/36 100
Roster rating1.13
1.0856/44 100
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 74% for 100 Thieves (1.25 / 3.65) and we land at 72%, the same read. This read is 96% our own signal (152 maps of 100 Thieves, 121 of EAC).
Bottom line: 100 Thieves to beat EAC, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings100 Thieves · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
EAC · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
100 Thieves
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
magic#171-21-2
100 Thieves vs magic
Mar 31LInferno13-8Mirage8-13Ancient9-13EAC vs magic
Jul 9LCache16-14Ancient7-13Mirage6-13
HOTU#282-32-1
EAC vs HOTU
Jul 31WAncient8-13Anubis13-10Cache19-17
HEROIC#321-20-1
100 Thieves vs HEROIC
Feb 28LInferno13-10Nuke10-13Ancient9-13EAC vs HEROIC
Sep 6LNuke4-13
Betclic#484-00-2
EAC vs Betclic
Jun 25LAncient14-16Dust28-13
Sashi#551-00-2
100 Thieves vs Sashi
Mar 8WAncient13-4EAC vs Sashi
Jul 30Lseries0-2
GenOne#562-00-4
100 Thieves vs GenOne
Jun 20WInferno13-6Dust213-7
INFINITE#642-02-0
100 Thieves vs INFINITE
Aug 9WNuke13-5Dust213-8EAC vs INFINITE
Jun 23WNuke13-5Mirage13-8
BASEMENT BOYS#934-04-2
Map lab
100 Thieves72%to win the Bo3 · most likely 100 Thieves 2-0
If the veto goes
100 Thieves 72%how the series ends28% EAC
51%2-07%
21%2-121%
100 Thieves80%15-8vsEAC20%3-8
65%Win27%
58%CT50%
52%T41%
61%Pistol36%
86%Conv88%
100 Thieves64%22-13vsEAC36%11-12
63%Win48%
56%CT53%
52%T49%
57%Pistol57%
93%Conv88%
100 Thieves50%0-0thinEAC50%6-3
–Win67%
–CT55%
–T52%
–Pistol67%
–Conv92%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
100 ThievesInfernoEAC
58%CT side50%
52%T side41%
61%Pistol36%
86%After win88%
17%After loss21%
100 ThievesAncientEAC
56%CT side53%
52%T side49%
57%Pistol57%
93%After win88%
13%After loss20%
100 ThievesCacheEAC
–CT side55%
–T side52%
–Pistol67%
–After win92%
–After loss33%
Pistol rounds59% · 53% · 100 Thieves win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol90% · 89% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol15% · 23% · EAC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, 100 Thieves vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
EAC habitually bans Dust2, 100 Thieves's strongest maps (Inferno, Dust2, Ancient, Overpass all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Dust2 48/51), not an opponent read, so expect 100 Thieves to fight the veto for Inferno.
Map100EAC
Anubis100 ban38%5-850%7-7
Dust2EAC ban72%23-90%0-1
Inferno100 pick65%15-827%3-8
AncientEAC pick63%22-1348%11-12
Mirage100 ban53%9-846%12-14
NukeEAC ban59%17-1241%9-13
Cachedecidern/a0g67%6-3
100 Thieves on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: 100 Thieves Mirage · EAC Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
100 Thieves
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/93 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 93 maps they won, 25 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Nuclear TigeRESAncientfrom 7 downvs FalconsAnubisfrom 7 downvs NemesisAncientfrom 6 downvs UrsaInfernofrom 6 downvs PhantomAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/59 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 24 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsNukeled 10 · lost 4-13vs TDKAncientled 8 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs HOTUDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs ENCEAnubisled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Nuclear TigeRESAncientfrom 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsNukeled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-12vs BetBoomNuke16-12vs FlyQuestNuke16-14vs FOKUSInferno14-16vs Johnny SpeedsInferno19-15
EAC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/53 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 53 maps they won, 20 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs ex-MANAMiragefrom 8 downvs HashirasOverpassfrom 6 downvs ex-MANAAncientfrom 6 downvs BASEMENT BOYSNukefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/62 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 62 maps they lost, 23 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs magicAncientled 8 · lost 7-13vs fnaticCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs ALGONukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs magicMirageled 5 · lost 6-13vs OGMirageled 5 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-MANAMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs magicAncientled 8 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs megoshortAncient14-16vs Rune EatersAncient12-16vs HashirasOverpass16-12vs Noir VerseMirage16-14vs MetizportNuke26-28