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Predictions / Drama vs mellren · match preview
Drama vs mellren: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
Drama
World #127 · 7-11
VS
2026-09-16 10:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
mellren
World #130 · 12-7
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
46%54%
43%
2.141.61Market · 2 books
57%The call
mellren are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Drama. Bookmakers lean mellren at 57%. Strength slightly favours mellren, record slightly favours mellren, firepower slightly favours mellren.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Dramapullmellren
Team strength1497
153658/42 MEL
Track record7–11
12–764/36 MEL
Recent formLLWWW
LWLLW53/47 DRA
Roster rating1.14
1.1367/33 MEL
Bookmakers imply 43% for Drama (2.14 / 1.61); we land 3 points higher at 46%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 90% our own signal (41 maps of Drama, 44 of mellren).
Bottom line: mellren to beat Drama, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsDrama · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
mellren · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lollipop21k★ | 1.17 | 94.9 | 77.5% | 56% | 1.28 |
| shootic | 1.06 | 78.7 | 73.9% | 61% | 1.2 |
| menddel | 1.06 | 70.1 | 70.2% | 50% | 1.09 |
| mdl | 0.99 | 68.6 | 72.1% | 48% | 1.07 |
| Maksilvl | 0.93 | 68.2 | 74% | 56% | 1.03 |
Recent form
Drama
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
mellren66%to win the Bo3 · most likely mellren 2-0
If the veto goes
Drama 34%how the series ends66% mellren
12%2-036%
22%2-130%
Drama54%6-2vsmellren46%9-4
75%Win69%
62%CT52%
53%T51%
75%Pistol50%
92%Conv69%
Drama22%2-5vsmellren78%6-3
29%Win67%
50%CT50%
56%T56%
50%Pistol44%
100%Conv88%
Drama43%5-7vsmellren57%4-4
42%Win50%
45%CT46%
47%T55%
29%Pistol31%
86%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
DramaMiragemellren
62%CT side52%
53%T side51%
75%Pistol50%
92%After win69%
0%After loss15%
DramaInfernomellren
50%CT side50%
56%T side56%
50%Pistol44%
100%After win88%
29%After loss10%
DramaAncientmellren
45%CT side46%
47%T side55%
29%Pistol31%
86%After win100%
6%After loss0%
Pistol rounds48% · 43% · Drama win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol92% · 81% · Drama keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol11% · 9% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Drama vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
mellren habitually bans Nuke, Drama's strongest maps (Mirage, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 14/19), not an opponent read, so expect Drama to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapDRAMEL
AnubisDRA ban0%0-1100%3-0
Drama on Anubis
L
Fire Flux7–137d agoCacheMEL ban100%1-0n/a0g
Drama on Cache
W
SINQU13–106d agomellren on Cache
no recent maps
MirageDRA pick75%6-269%9-4
InfernoMEL pick29%2-567%6-3
Dust2DRA ban17%1-550%4-4
NukeMEL ban75%3-10%0-3
Ancientdecider42%5-750%4-4
Each team's usual first ban: Drama Anubis · mellren Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Drama
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/18 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 18 maps they won, 4 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs ENCEMiragefrom 6 downvs ZOTIXNukefrom 5 downvs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/23 (43%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 10 (43%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs FaZeNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs HYPERSPIRITAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ENCEMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs ZOTIXDust213-16vs fnaticAncient16-14vs SINQUInferno16-19vs INOX DivisionInferno12-16
mellren
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/26 (46%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 26 maps they won, 12 (46%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 46% of their wins were comebacks, not 46% of all games.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 downvs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs BERGMiragefrom 5 downvs LPHInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/18 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 18 maps they lost, 5 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs PUREAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs EnjoyAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs HAVUNukeled 3 · lost 9-13vs Falcons ForceInfernoled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini4.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs AMDust214-16vs TrickstersMirage19-16vs TrickstersAncient16-14vs Bushido WildcatsMirage16-12vs BERGMirage16-14