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Predictions / ex-RUSTEC vs NAVI Junior · match preview
ex-RUSTEC vs NAVI Junior: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
ex-RUSTEC
World #67 · 28-17
VS
2026-09-18 10:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
NAVI Junior
World #114 · 14-15
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
70%30%
74%
1.253.49Market · 3 books
26%The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 70% against NAVI Junior. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 74%. Strength slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, record slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-RUSTECpullNAVI Junior
Team strength1581
149668/32 EX-
Track record28–17
14–1557/43 EX-
Recent formWWWWL
WWWLL53/47 EX-
Roster rating1.13
1.0981/19 EX-
Bookmakers imply 74% for ex-RUSTEC (1.25 / 3.49); we land 4 points lower at 70%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 94% our own signal (206 maps of ex-RUSTEC, 65 of NAVI Junior).
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat NAVI Junior, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsex-RUSTEC · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.21 | 82.7 | 74.6% | 68% | 1.24 |
| youka | 1.27 | 73.8 | 72.8% | 36% | 1.21 |
| KIRO | 1.07 | 76.6 | 79% | 60% | 1.18 |
| jakekeS | 0.93 | 69.9 | 73% | 56% | 1.03 |
| Brilliance | 0.85 | 70.2 | 69.5% | 56% | 0.99 |
NAVI Junior · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ex-RUSTEC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bushido Wildcats#760-22-5
ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22NAVI Junior vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 14WDust26-13Mirage16-13Anubis13-11Sep 12LDust219-22Mirage17-19Sep 8LMirage4-13Dust26-13
UNiTY#922-10-2
ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY
Jul 28WDust213-6Inferno8-13Mirage13-8NAVI Junior vs UNiTY
Aug 7LAnubis5-13Ancient10-13
Entropy#1586-12-0
ex-RUSTEC vs Entropy
Sep 8WMirage13-2Anubis13-1Aug 29WDust216-14Mirage8-13Anubis13-11Jul 27WCache13-3Dust213-7NAVI Junior vs Entropy
Sep 13WMirage13-1Anubis13-6Map lab
ex-RUSTEC56%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUSTEC 2-1
If the veto goes
ex-RUSTEC 56%how the series ends44% NAVI Junior
24%2-019%
32%2-126%
ex-RUSTEC72%18-12vsNAVI Junior28%3-6
60%Win33%
55%CT55%
51%T45%
48%Pistol39%
76%Conv71%
ex-RUSTEC33%7-4vsNAVI Junior67%12-3
64%Win80%
57%CT66%
50%T50%
41%Pistol60%
78%Conv89%
ex-RUSTEC56%9-11vsNAVI Junior44%3-5
45%Win38%
53%CT42%
44%T46%
50%Pistol44%
85%Conv57%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ex-RUSTECDust2NAVI Junior
55%CT side55%
51%T side45%
48%Pistol39%
76%After win71%
19%After loss36%
ex-RUSTECMirageNAVI Junior
57%CT side66%
50%T side50%
41%Pistol60%
78%After win89%
31%After loss33%
ex-RUSTECNukeNAVI Junior
53%CT side42%
44%T side46%
50%Pistol44%
85%After win57%
5%After loss0%
Pistol rounds48% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol79% · 78% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol17% · 25% · NAVI Junior fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-RUSTEC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEX-NAV
AncientEX- bann/a0g30%3-7
ex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
CacheNAV ban45%5-60%0-2
Dust2EX- pick60%18-1233%3-6
MirageNAV pick64%7-480%12-3
InfernoEX- ban42%5-729%2-5
AnubisNAV ban67%14-744%4-5
Each team's usual first ban: ex-RUSTEC Ancient · NAVI Junior Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/58 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 58 maps they won, 16 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/47 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 14 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FortressNukefrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
NAVI Junior
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/27 (41%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 27 maps they won, 11 (41%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 41% of their wins were comebacks, not 41% of all games.vs OLDBOYS PLNukefrom 6 downvs LPHInfernofrom 5 downvs GamersLabNukefrom 5 downvs Falcons ForceNukefrom 5 downvs PrestigeMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/35 (20%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 35 maps they lost, 7 (20%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 19-22vs JamAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs JamNukeled 4 · lost 14-16vs UNiTYAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs GamersLabDust2led 3 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OLDBOYS PLNukefrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 19-22
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs ASTRALNuke15-19vs GamersLabDust212-16vs GamersLabMirage16-12vs eSubaInferno14-16vs JamNuke14-16