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Predictions / Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC · match preview
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
Black Phoenix
World #79 · 29-26
VS
2026-09-24 10:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
ex-RUSTEC
World #64 · 33-21
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
56%44%
The call
Black Phoenix are favoured: our model gives them 56% against ex-RUSTEC. No odds yet. Firepower clearly favours Black Phoenix, head-to-head slightly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Black Phoenixpullex-RUSTEC
Team strength1552
157054/46 EX-
Track record29–26
33–2154/46 EX-
Recent formWWLLL
WLWWL52/48 EX-
Roster rating1.06
1.1190/10 BLA
Head-to-head2 maps
3 maps57/43 EX-
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (137 maps of Black Phoenix, 230 of ex-RUSTEC). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: Black Phoenix to beat ex-RUSTEC, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-RUSTEC · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.13 | 80.2 | 73.1% | 68% | 1.2 |
| youka | 1.25 | 73.7 | 71.9% | 36% | 1.2 |
| shalfey | 1.11 | 76.8 | 74.3% | 61% | 1.15 |
| jakekeS | 0.92 | 68.2 | 73.2% | 55% | 1.01 |
| Brilliance | 0.87 | 71.5 | 69.2% | 56% | 1 |
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6d ago
Black Phoenix2 : 1 ex-RUSTEC◆ same lineup1mo ago Black Phoenix0 : 2 ex-RUSTEC!
Black Phoenix2 : 1 ex-RUSTEC◆ same lineup1mo ago Black Phoenix0 : 2 ex-RUSTEC!⚠ Different lineup
Black Phoenix
outyiksrezo
inMRcreed
ex-RUSTEC
outPatsi
inyiksrezo
Sashi#581-22-1
Black Phoenix vs Sashi
Aug 2LCache6-13Dust213-2Nuke8-13ex-RUSTEC vs Sashi
Aug 28WDust213-5Cache10-13Nuke13-5
INOX Division#701-20-4
Black Phoenix vs INOX Division
Sep 10LNuke4-13Dust213-1Inferno5-13
Bushido Wildcats#722-10-2
Black Phoenix vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 19WDust213-11Mirage4-13Nuke13-7ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22
FORZE Reload#770-20-4
Black Phoenix vs FORZE Reload
Aug 27LMirage10-13Dust210-13
BAKS#803-31-2
ex-RUSTEC vs BAKS
Sep 18LDust213-7Cache10-13Nuke8-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#830-60-2
Black Phoenix vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 22LAnubis8-13Dust210-13Sep 2LAnubis8-13Dust27-13Aug 25LCache3-13Dust211-13ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18LCache5-13Mirage8-13
Butterfly#843-31-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Butterfly
Aug 5LCache10-13Nuke16-14Dust210-13
QUAZAR#871-20-2
Black Phoenix vs QUAZAR
Sep 21LDust213-4Cache7-13Nuke9-13ex-RUSTEC vs QUAZAR
Sep 16LNuke12-16Mirage10-13Map lab
ex-RUSTEC70%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUSTEC 2-0
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 30%how the series ends70% ex-RUSTEC
6%2-045%
24%2-124%
Black Phoenix49%25-17vsex-RUSTEC51%22-14
60%Win61%
53%CT56%
54%T51%
52%Pistol49%
93%Conv77%
Black Phoenix12%3-13vsex-RUSTEC88%16-7
19%Win70%
43%CT52%
35%T57%
31%Pistol59%
40%Conv93%
Black Phoenix50%10-10vsex-RUSTEC50%14-14
50%Win50%
60%CT55%
38%T45%
48%Pistol54%
84%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixDust2ex-RUSTEC
53%CT side56%
54%T side51%
52%Pistol49%
93%After win77%
13%After loss16%
Black PhoenixAnubisex-RUSTEC
43%CT side52%
35%T side57%
31%Pistol59%
40%After win93%
14%After loss26%
Black PhoenixNukeex-RUSTEC
60%CT side55%
38%T side45%
48%Pistol54%
84%After win80%
5%After loss8%
Pistol rounds47% · 53% · ex-RUSTEC win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol11% · 16% · ex-RUSTEC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBLAEX-
AncientBLA ban0%0-1n/a0g
Black Phoenix on Ancient
LPsychoFace11–1315d agoex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoEX- ban64%9-546%6-7
Dust2BLA pick60%25-1761%22-14
AnubisEX- pick19%3-1370%16-7
MirageBLA ban38%8-1344%7-9
CacheEX- ban53%8-746%6-7
Nukedecider50%10-1050%14-14
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · ex-RUSTEC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/63 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 23 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs G2 AresDust2from 10 downvs QUAZARDust2from 9 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs BAKSDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/66 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 22 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresDust2from 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/71 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 71 maps they won, 22 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs NexusDust2from 6 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/58 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 58 maps they lost, 20 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs DramaMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16