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Predictions / PsychoFace vs mellren · match preview
PsychoFace vs mellren: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
PSY
PsychoFace
World #194 · 13-23
VS
2026-09-25 10:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
mellren
World #123 · 15-8
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
44%56%
The call
mellren are favoured: our model gives them 56% against PsychoFace. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours mellren, record slightly favours mellren, form clearly favours mellren, firepower clearly favours mellren.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
PsychoFacepullmellren
Team strength1489
153660/40 MEL
Track record13–23
15–863/37 MEL
Recent formLLLWL
WWLWL76/24 MEL
Roster rating1.08
1.1382/18 MEL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 93% our own signal (91 maps of PsychoFace, 54 of mellren).
Bottom line: mellren to beat PsychoFace, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsPsychoFace · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lov1kus★ | 1.15 | 82 | 75.9% | 57% | 1.23 |
| eightz999 | 1.09 | 75.8 | 70.9% | 41% | 1.11 |
| anttzz | 0.94 | 74.3 | 70.9% | 62% | 1.08 |
| PsychoDoctor | 0.99 | 68.1 | 74.2% | 52% | 1.04 |
| facecrack | 0.84 | 69.8 | 69.6% | 51% | 0.94 |
mellren · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
PsychoFace
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit Academy#1112-10-2
PsychoFace vs Spirit Academy
Jul 17WNuke13-3Cache9-13Dust213-0mellren vs Spirit Academy
Aug 1LAncient6-13Dust27-13
Enjoy#1813-31-2
mellren vs Enjoy
Sep 13LAncient11-13Inferno13-3Mirage9-13
Tricksters#1992-02-0
PsychoFace vs Tricksters
May 25WDust216-13Nuke13-6mellren vs Tricksters
Jul 12WMirage19-16Ancient16-14
AM1-20-2
PsychoFace vs AM
May 22LDust213-8Mirage2-13Nuke10-13mellren vs AM
Mar 25LDust214-16Ancient7-13Map lab
mellren73%to win the Bo3 · most likely mellren 2-0
If the veto goes
PsychoFace 27%how the series ends73% mellren
9%2-041%
18%2-133%
PsychoFace50%14-14vsmellren50%4-4
50%Win50%
50%CT55%
54%T50%
66%Pistol25%
83%Conv100%
PsychoFace18%6-12vsmellren82%11-4
33%Win73%
52%CT54%
42%T53%
44%Pistol47%
88%Conv71%
PsychoFace35%4-4vsmellren65%3-0
50%Win100%
58%CT67%
47%T54%
69%Pistol33%
82%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
PsychoFaceDust2mellren
50%CT side55%
54%T side50%
66%Pistol25%
83%After win100%
32%After loss25%
PsychoFaceMiragemellren
52%CT side54%
42%T side53%
44%Pistol47%
88%After win71%
15%After loss13%
PsychoFaceAnubismellren
58%CT side67%
47%T side54%
69%Pistol33%
82%After win100%
60%After loss75%
Pistol rounds59% · 38% · PsychoFace win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 80% · PsychoFace keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol27% · 25% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, PsychoFace vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPSYMEL
InfernoPSY ban25%1-364%7-4
CacheMEL ban50%1-1n/a0g
mellren on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2PSY pick50%14-1450%4-4
MirageMEL pick33%6-1273%11-4
AncientPSY ban33%2-456%5-4
NukeMEL ban38%6-100%0-6
Anubisdecider50%4-4100%3-0
Each team's usual first ban: PsychoFace Inferno · mellren Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
PsychoFace
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/41 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 41 maps they won, 9 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs The Last ResortMiragefrom 5 downvs G2 AresMiragefrom 5 downvs brazylijski luzDust2from 4 downvs G2 AresOverpassfrom 4 downvs EnjoyCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/50 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 20 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HYPERSPIRITMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs UNiTYDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs HEROIC AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs brazylijski luzDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs Virtus.proMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HYPERSPIRITMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs UrsaNuke13-16vs UNiTYAnubis14-16vs UNiTYDust216-13vs LeoDust218-22vs HEROIC AcademyAnubis16-14
mellren
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/30 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 30 maps they won, 13 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 downvs PermittaMiragefrom 9 downvs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs BERGMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/22 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 22 maps they lost, 7 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs DramaNukeled 6 · lost 8-13vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs PUREAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs EnjoyAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs HAVUNukeled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs DramaNukeled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs AMDust214-16vs TrickstersMirage19-16vs TrickstersAncient16-14vs Bushido WildcatsMirage16-12vs BERGMirage16-14