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Predictions / Vexar vs Bushido Wildcats · match preview
Vexar vs Bushido Wildcats: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
Vexar
World #130 · 21-19
VS
2026-09-26 08:00 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
Bushido Wildcats
World #72 · 50-45
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
52%48%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. No odds yet. Firepower slightly favours Bushido Wildcats.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
VexarpullBushido Wildcats
Team strength1543154250/50
Track record21–19
50–4552/48 BUS
Recent formLWWWWLWWWW50/50
Roster rating1.06
169/31 BUS
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (95 maps of Vexar, 233 of Bushido Wildcats).
Bottom line: Vexar to beat Bushido Wildcats, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVexar · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| obsward★ | 1.21 | 80.8 | 72.1% | 64% | 1.26 |
| Bottega666 | 1.05 | 74 | 68.8% | 45% | 1.1 |
| ADntZ | 0.93 | 78 | 68.6% | 65% | 1.07 |
| datet | 0.91 | 71.8 | 68.9% | 60% | 1.02 |
| KEEMBO | 0.78 | 57.8 | 68.9% | 53% | 0.86 |
Bushido Wildcats · avg 1 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Vexar
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ex-RUSTEC#640-22-0
Vexar vs ex-RUSTEC
Jul 31LAnubis3-13Nuke6-13Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 13WNuke13-8Dust222-19
Phantom#730-20-2
Vexar vs Phantom
Jul 28LAncient11-13Nuke8-13Bushido Wildcats vs Phantom
May 30LNuke14-16Mirage9-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#830-21-4
Vexar vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18Lseries0-2Bushido Wildcats vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 30LDust216-14Inferno7-13Nuke5-13Feb 18LMirage6-13Inferno11-13
WW#961-20-2
Vexar vs WW
Sep 22LNuke13-9Dust210-13Mirage6-13Bushido Wildcats vs WW
Feb 17LOverpass10-13Dust210-13
Permitta#1032-04-0
Vexar vs Permitta
Aug 21WAncient13-9Nuke13-11
Leo#1080-24-7
Vexar vs Leo
Aug 2LAncient3-13Nuke6-13Bushido Wildcats vs Leo
Sep 15LDust216-14Nuke9-13Cache11-13Aug 20LNuke9-13Mirage13-3Dust22-13Aug 4WNuke13-6Dust27-13Anubis13-1+1 earlier meeting
G2 Ares#1130-25-2
Vexar vs G2 Ares
May 31LMirage6-13Ancient10-13Bushido Wildcats vs G2 Ares
Sep 6LInferno10-13Dust216-14Anubis12-16Aug 26WInferno13-6Dust213-11Feb 12WMirage13-6Anubis13-7EX-ex-RUBY#1150-20-2
Vexar vs ex-RUBY
Jul 24LAncient6-13Mirage11-13Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUBY
Jun 5LDust210-13Nuke9-13Map lab
Vexar51%to win the Bo3 · most likely Bushido Wildcats 2-1
If the veto goes
Vexar 51%how the series ends49% Bushido Wildcats
24%2-015%
26%2-135%
Vexar78%7-2vsBushido Wildcats22%10-14
78%Win42%
61%CT51%
58%T48%
50%Pistol46%
89%Conv86%
Vexar31%6-6vsBushido Wildcats69%41-18
50%Win69%
47%CT55%
51%T58%
63%Pistol55%
87%Conv92%
Vexar43%8-8vsBushido Wildcats57%28-21
50%Win57%
51%CT53%
47%T50%
38%Pistol47%
92%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
VexarInfernoBushido Wildcats
61%CT side51%
58%T side48%
50%Pistol46%
89%After win86%
44%After loss12%
VexarDust2Bushido Wildcats
47%CT side55%
51%T side58%
63%Pistol55%
87%After win92%
0%After loss19%
VexarMirageBushido Wildcats
51%CT side53%
47%T side50%
38%Pistol47%
92%After win85%
5%After loss6%
Pistol rounds49% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol89% · 89% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol14% · 12% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Vexar vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapVEXBUS
CacheVEX bann/a0g56%10-8
Vexar on Cache
no recent maps
AncientBUS ban53%16-140%0-1
InfernoVEX pick78%7-242%10-14
Dust2BUS pick50%6-669%41-18
AnubisVEX ban44%4-546%12-14
NukeBUS ban36%4-738%16-26
Miragedecider50%8-857%28-21
Each team's usual first ban: Vexar Cache · Bushido Wildcats Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Vexar
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/45 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 45 maps they won, 14 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs LavkedAncientfrom 6 downvs LavkedDust2from 5 downvs Young TigeRESAncientfrom 4 downvs Young TigeRESAnubisfrom 4 downvs ZOTIXAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/42 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 17 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Falcons ForceAnubisled 6 · lost 20-22vs IllyriansAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs Basement BobsMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs HonvédAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAncientled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Falcons ForceAnubisled 6 · lost 20-22
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsAnubis16-14vs NEW VISIONAncient16-13vs HonvédDust216-13vs Falcons ForceAnubis20-22vs benched godsMirage14-16
Bushido Wildcats
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/122 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 122 maps they won, 32 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 10 downvs SPARTAAnubisfrom 9 downvs NexusInfernofrom 9 downvs Rune EatersDust2from 7 downvs MASONICAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i41/109 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 109 maps they lost, 41 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs AzuolasNukeled 7 · lost 6-13vs VP.ProdigyDust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs PhantomNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs Fire FluxNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAAncientled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs ALGONuke14-16vs BebopMirage15-19vs MASONICOverpass25-22vs LeoNuke16-19vs CSDIILITNuke19-16