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Predictions / Aurora vs Vitality · match preview
Aurora vs Vitality: CS2 match prediction · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
Aurora
World #9 · 37-25
VS
TBD
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
Vitality
World #5 · 43-11
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
35%65%
30%
3.151.34Market · 15 books
70%The call
Vitality are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Aurora. Bookmakers lean Vitality at 70%. Strength slightly favours Vitality, record slightly favours Vitality, head-to-head clearly favours Vitality.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AurorapullVitality
Team strength1695
175162/38 VIT
Track record37–25
43–1167/33 VIT
Recent formWWLWWWWLWW50/50
Roster rating1.14
1.1855/45 VIT
Head-to-head0 maps
6 maps87/13 VIT
Bookmakers imply 30% for Aurora (3.15 / 1.34); we land 5 points higher at 35%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (144 maps of Aurora, 129 of Vitality). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Vitality leads 3–0.
Bottom line: Vitality to beat Aurora, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAurora · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Vitality · avg 1.18 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6mo ago
Aurora0 : 2
Vitality!7mo ago Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!8mo ago Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!
Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Spirit#11-24-2
Aurora vs Spirit
Jun 12LDust213-9Anubis4-13Nuke5-13
Falcons#22-13-6
MOUZ#32-66-3
Aurora vs MOUZ
May 15LDust211-13Nuke8-13May 12LDust216-14Dust211-13Nuke15-19Apr 14LDust24-13Mirage8-13+1 earlier meeting
Vitality vs MOUZ
Sep 5LDust211-13Mirage7-13Jun 13WMirage13-9Dust27-13Inferno13-4Feb 16WDust213-5Inferno13-8+1 earlier meeting
FURIA#43-69-2
Aurora vs FURIA
Aug 19LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Mirage9-13Jun 20LDust29-13Nuke4-13Mar 20WDust216-14Inferno13-6+1 earlier meeting
Vitality vs FURIA
Sep 18WMirage13-8Dust213-5Sep 4WNuke6-13Cache13-11Dust213-4Apr 18WOverpass13-10Ancient13-10+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#64-22-1
Vitality vs Legacy
Aug 30WNuke16-14Mirage9-13Dust213-8
FUT#71-26-2
G2#85-46-3
Natus Vincere#105-99-2
Aurora vs Natus Vincere
Sep 17WNuke13-8Mirage13-7Apr 15LInferno4-13Mirage13-11Dust24-13Mar 23LAnubis8-13Nuke10-13+2 earlier meetings
Vitality vs Natus Vincere
May 16LDust213-11Anubis11-13Inferno3-13May 3WNuke16-12Anubis13-11Dust213-3Apr 17WMirage13-4Dust213-6+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Vitality68%to win the Bo3 · most likely Vitality 2-0
If the veto goes
Aurora 32%how the series ends68% Vitality
10%2-046%
21%2-123%
Aurora28%19-12vsVitality72%27-6
61%Win82%
56%CT64%
51%T61%
58%Pistol53%
89%Conv83%
Aurora37%13-7vsVitality63%14-4
65%Win78%
63%CT61%
47%T51%
55%Pistol53%
86%Conv79%
Aurora49%3-2vsVitality51%2-1
60%Win67%
55%CT61%
52%T52%
100%Pistol67%
90%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AuroraDust2Vitality
56%CT side64%
51%T side61%
58%Pistol53%
89%After win83%
19%After loss39%
AuroraInfernoVitality
63%CT side61%
47%T side51%
55%Pistol53%
86%After win79%
44%After loss41%
AuroraCacheVitality
55%CT side61%
52%T side52%
100%Pistol67%
90%After win50%
–After loss0%
Pistol rounds61% · 54% · Aurora win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 79% · Aurora keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol30% · 38% · Vitality fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Aurora vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapAURVIT
AncientAUR ban0%0-2100%2-0
AnubisVIT ban65%13-746%6-7
Dust2AUR pick61%19-1282%27-6
InfernoVIT pick65%13-778%14-4
NukeAUR ban52%12-1180%16-4
MirageVIT ban59%16-1163%15-9
Cachedecider60%3-267%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: Aurora Ancient · Vitality Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/85 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 85 maps they won, 20 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs NRGCachefrom 7 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 downvs DENDELEMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/59 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 27 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs FURIAMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Natus VincereNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs M80Anubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13
Vitality
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/97 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 29 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 11 downvs LegacyNukefrom 8 downvs 9zNukefrom 7 downvs FURIAOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/32 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 32 maps they lost, 14 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs FalconsMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs B8Infernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs LegacyMirageled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSAnubis19-16vs AuroraAncient25-22vs The MongolZMirage16-13vs PARIVISIONInferno16-13vs The MongolZOverpass16-13