Matches / Upcoming / Aurora vs Vitality
Aurora vs Vitality: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
Aurora
World #9 · 37-25
VS
2026-09-19 15:25 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
Vitality
World #5 · 43-11
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
34%66%
30%
3.151.34Market · 15 books
70%The call
Vitality are favoured: our model gives them 66% against Aurora. Bookmakers lean Vitality at 70%. Strength slightly favours Vitality, record slightly favours Vitality, head-to-head clearly favours Vitality.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
Firepower
roster ratingsAurora · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Vitality · avg 1.18 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6mo ago
Aurora0 : 2
Vitality!7mo ago Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!8mo ago Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!
Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Aurora0 : 2 Vitality!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Spirit#11-24-2
Aurora vs Spirit
Jun 12LDust213-9Anubis4-13Nuke5-13
Falcons#22-13-6
MOUZ#32-66-3
Aurora vs MOUZ
May 15LDust211-13Nuke8-13May 12LDust216-14Dust211-13Nuke15-19Apr 14LDust24-13Mirage8-13+1 earlier meeting
Vitality vs MOUZ
Sep 5LDust211-13Mirage7-13Jun 13WMirage13-9Dust27-13Inferno13-4Feb 16WDust213-5Inferno13-8+1 earlier meeting
FURIA#43-69-2
Aurora vs FURIA
Aug 19LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Mirage9-13Jun 20LDust29-13Nuke4-13Mar 20WDust216-14Inferno13-6+1 earlier meeting
Vitality vs FURIA
Sep 18WMirage13-8Dust213-5Sep 4WNuke6-13Cache13-11Dust213-4Apr 18WOverpass13-10Ancient13-10+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#64-22-1
Vitality vs Legacy
Aug 30WNuke16-14Mirage9-13Dust213-8
FUT#71-26-2
G2#85-46-3
Natus Vincere#105-99-2
Aurora vs Natus Vincere
Sep 17WNuke13-8Mirage13-7Apr 15LInferno4-13Mirage13-11Dust24-13Mar 23LAnubis8-13Nuke10-13+2 earlier meetings
Vitality vs Natus Vincere
May 16LDust213-11Anubis11-13Inferno3-13May 3WNuke16-12Anubis13-11Dust213-3Apr 17WMirage13-4Dust213-6+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Vitality68%to win the Bo3 · most likely Vitality 2-0
If the veto goes
Aurora 32%how the series ends68% Vitality
10%2-046%
21%2-123%
Aurora28%19-12vsVitality72%27-6
61%Win82%
56%CT64%
51%T61%
58%Pistol53%
89%Conv83%
Aurora37%13-7vsVitality63%14-4
65%Win78%
63%CT61%
47%T51%
55%Pistol53%
86%Conv79%
Aurora49%3-2vsVitality51%2-1
60%Win67%
55%CT61%
52%T52%
100%Pistol67%
90%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AuroraDust2Vitality
56%CT side64%
51%T side61%
58%Pistol53%
89%After win83%
19%After loss39%
AuroraInfernoVitality
63%CT side61%
47%T side51%
55%Pistol53%
86%After win79%
44%After loss41%
AuroraCacheVitality
55%CT side61%
52%T side52%
100%Pistol67%
90%After win50%
–After loss0%
Pistol rounds61% · 54% · Aurora win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 79% · Aurora keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol30% · 38% · Vitality fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Aurora vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapAURVIT
AncientAUR ban0%0-2100%2-0
AnubisVIT ban65%13-746%6-7
Dust2AUR pick61%19-1282%27-6
InfernoVIT pick65%13-778%14-4
NukeAUR ban52%12-1180%16-4
MirageVIT ban59%16-1163%15-9
Cachedecider60%3-267%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: Aurora Ancient · Vitality Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/85 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 85 maps they won, 20 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs NRGCachefrom 7 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 downvs DENDELEMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/59 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 27 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs FURIAMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Natus VincereNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs M80Anubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13
Vitality
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/97 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 29 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 11 downvs LegacyNukefrom 8 downvs 9zNukefrom 7 downvs FURIAOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/32 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 32 maps they lost, 14 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs FalconsMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs B8Infernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs LegacyMirageled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSAnubis19-16vs AuroraAncient25-22vs The MongolZMirage16-13vs PARIVISIONInferno16-13vs The MongolZOverpass16-13
Aurora vs Vitality FAQ
Who is favored to win Aurora vs Vitality?
Vitality are favored with a 66% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Aurora vs Vitality?
Bookmakers price Aurora at 3.15 and Vitality at 1.34 (implied 30% vs 70%).
When do Aurora and Vitality play?
Aurora vs Vitality is scheduled for 2026-09-19 15:25 UTC at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026.