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Predictions / BERG vs Famalicão · match preview
BERG vs Famalicão: CS2 match prediction · HyperX Retake Season 12
BERG
World #216 · 8-14
VS
2026-09-18 14:00 UTC
HyperX Retake Season 12 · Best of 3
Famalicão
World #– · 8-26
HyperX Retake Season 12 · Best of 3
74%26%
The call · high confidence
BERG are favoured: our model gives them 74% against Famalicão. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours BERG, record slightly favours BERG, form slightly favours BERG, firepower clearly favours BERG.
Likely mapsAncient · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BERGpullFamalicão
Team strength1451
134771/29 BER
Track record8–14
8–2667/33 BER
Recent formWLLWL
LLWLL64/36 BER
Roster rating1.05
0.9297/3 BER
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 90% our own signal (41 maps of BERG, 67 of Famalicão).
Bottom line: BERG to beat Famalicão, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBERG · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Famalicão · avg 0.92 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BERG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HAVU#1250-20-2
BERG vs HAVU
Aug 16LMirage6-13Ancient11-13Famalicão vs HAVU
May 7LDust25-13Mirage8-13
Falcons Force#1310-22-2
BERG vs Falcons Force
Sep 9LInferno9-13Nuke11-13Map lab
BERG61%to win the Bo3 · most likely BERG 2-0
If the veto goes
BERG 61%how the series ends39% Famalicão
36%2-015%
25%2-125%
BERG69%5-5vsFamalicão31%3-8
50%Win27%
54%CT34%
47%T40%
65%Pistol45%
77%Conv80%
BERG53%1-3vsFamalicão47%2-6
25%Win25%
46%CT34%
28%T48%
13%Pistol31%
100%Conv40%
BERG50%1-0thinFamalicão50%0-0
100%Win–
92%CT–
25%T–
50%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BERGAncientFamalicão
54%CT side34%
47%T side40%
65%Pistol45%
77%After win80%
0%After loss0%
BERGAnubisFamalicão
46%CT side34%
28%T side48%
13%Pistol31%
100%After win40%
14%After loss27%
BERGCacheFamalicão
92%CT side–
25%T side–
50%Pistol–
100%After win–
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds50% · 39% · BERG win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 67% · BERG keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol7% · 13% · Famalicão fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BERG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBERFAM
Dust2BER bann/a0g25%5-15
BERG on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageFAM ban38%3-514%1-6
AncientBER pick50%5-527%3-8
AnubisFAM pick25%1-325%2-6
NukeBER ban27%3-8n/a0g
BERG on Nuke
LFalcons Force11–137d agoW
Privateer16–1210d agoL
XI9–1311d agoL
Azuolas9–1317d agoL
WBT4–1317d agoL
ENCE5–131mo agoL
los kogutos2–131mo agoL
Leo5–133mo agoFamalicão on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoFAM ban50%3-39%1-10
Cachedecider100%1-0n/a0g
BERG on Cache
WNEXORA13–72d agoFamalicão on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: BERG Dust2 · Famalicão Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BERG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/16 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 4 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 downvs WBTAncientfrom 4 downvs SINQU REHTIAnubisfrom 3 downvs PrivateerAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/25 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 9 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Mai TaiMirageled 5 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs Falcons ForceInfernoled 4 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 4 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs AaBInferno13-16vs los kogutosAncient16-13vs mellrenMirage14-16vs PrivateerNuke16-12
Famalicão
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/16 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 6 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs MANAAnubisfrom 7 downvs Falcons ForceDust2from 5 downvs EXSADAncientfrom 4 downvs HYPERSPIRITTrainfrom 3 downvs ALLINNERSAnubisfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/51 (18%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 51 maps they lost, 9 (18%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EC BANGAInfernoled 5 · lost 10-13vs The Last ResortAnubisled 4 · lost 12-16vs HAVUMirageled 4 · lost 8-13vs MOUZ NXTMirageled 3 · lost 10-13vs MANAInfernoled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MANAAnubisfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EC BANGAInfernoled 5 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini6.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs LiquidInferno16-13vs MANAAnubis16-13vs The Last ResortAnubis12-16vs Falcons ForceDust216-12