Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Galorys vs Bounty Hunters · match preview
Galorys vs Bounty Hunters: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 3
Galorys
World #95 · 44-36
VS
2026-09-18 18:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
Bounty Hunters
World #138 · 52-45
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
76%24%
59%
1.582.24Market · 17 books
41%The call · high confidence
Galorys are favoured: our model gives them 76% against Bounty Hunters. Bookmakers lean Galorys at 59%. Strength slightly favours Galorys, firepower clearly favours Galorys.
Likely mapsAncient · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
GaloryspullBounty Hunters
Team strength1668
157469/31 GAL
Track record44–36
52–4551/49 GAL
Recent formWWLLW
WLWLW52/48 GAL
Roster rating1.11
1.196/4 GAL
Head-to-head8 maps
7 maps53/47 GAL
Bookmakers imply 59% for Galorys (1.58 / 2.24); we land 17 points higher at 76%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (183 maps of Galorys, 227 of Bounty Hunters). Head-to-head they've met 7 times: Galorys leads 4–3.
Bottom line: Galorys to beat Bounty Hunters, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGalorys · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| detr0ittJ★ | 1.19 | 70 | 77.4% | 30% | 1.18 |
| gbb | 1.07 | 79.7 | 73.9% | 52% | 1.18 |
| tomate | 1.1 | 75 | 74.8% | 52% | 1.15 |
| destiny | 0.99 | 71.2 | 72.5% | 51% | 1.07 |
| PKL | 0.85 | 66.3 | 73.3% | 54% | 0.99 |
Bounty Hunters · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Galorys
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents12d ago
Galorys2 : 0
Bounty Hunters◆ same lineup23d ago Galorys2 : 0 Bounty Hunters◆ same lineup4mo ago Galorys2 : 1 Bounty Hunters!4mo ago Galorys2 : 1 Bounty Hunters!5mo ago Galorys0 : 2 Bounty Hunters!6mo ago Galorys0 : 2 Bounty Hunters!6mo ago Galorys11 : 13 Bounty Hunters!
Galorys2 : 0 Bounty Hunters◆ same lineup23d ago Galorys2 : 0 Bounty Hunters◆ same lineup4mo ago Galorys2 : 1 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Galorys
outk1not1, nython
inPKL, detr0ittJ
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Galorys2 : 1 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Galorys
outk1not1, nython
inPKL, detr0ittJ
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Galorys0 : 2 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Galorys
outjnt, nython
inPKL, detr0ittJ
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Galorys0 : 2 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Galorys
outdrg, nython
inPKL, detr0ittJ
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Galorys11 : 13 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Galorys
outdrg, nython
inPKL, detr0ittJ
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
9z#140-20-2
Galorys vs 9z
Jan 18LAncient7-13Dust23-13Bounty Hunters vs 9z
Feb 14LDust27-13Ancient10-13
MIBR#181-40-4
paiN#271-21-2
Galorys vs paiN
Apr 1LNuke13-16Overpass13-6Mirage5-13Bounty Hunters vs paiN
Mar 27LMirage13-11Nuke4-13Dust28-13
Fluxo#616-04-7
Bounty Hunters vs Fluxo
Jul 30LCache7-13Dust213-6Nuke4-13Jul 18LNuke4-13Dust213-16Jul 9WMirage7-13Anubis13-10Nuke13-10+1 earlier meeting
Imperial#627-1211-14
Galorys vs Imperial
Sep 9LInferno5-13Anubis5-13Sep 1LAnubis11-13Dust29-13Aug 30WAnubis13-4Inferno13-6+6 earlier meetings
Bounty Hunters vs Imperial
Sep 17LMirage6-13Cache13-8Nuke4-13Sep 6WMirage10-13Nuke13-11Dust213-8Sep 5LCache6-13Dust210-13+6 earlier meetings
ShindeN#804-26-2
BESTIA#905-31-2
Galorys vs BESTIA
Sep 18WAncient13-10Dust213-7Jul 31LAncient16-12Cache19-22Dust211-13May 28WDust26-13Overpass13-8Nuke13-10Bounty Hunters vs BESTIA
May 29LDust213-5Nuke2-13Mirage4-13
LP#1017-115-5
Galorys vs LP
May 30LMirage13-6Overpass8-13Ancient7-13May 27WAncient13-10Overpass13-5May 25LOverpass13-10Nuke11-13Mirage9-13+4 earlier meetings
Bounty Hunters vs LP
Jul 28LNuke13-5Ancient10-13Cache10-13May 24WMirage13-6Overpass13-10Mar 4WDust26-13Ancient13-8Mirage13-9+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Galorys52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Bounty Hunters 2-1
If the veto goes
Galorys 52%how the series ends48% Bounty Hunters
25%2-022%
26%2-127%
Galorys64%28-13vsBounty Hunters36%23-20
68%Win53%
58%CT55%
50%T47%
41%Pistol55%
79%Conv83%
Galorys39%17-17vsBounty Hunters61%30-19
50%Win61%
57%CT60%
44%T46%
51%Pistol50%
89%Conv90%
Galorys49%2-1vsBounty Hunters51%10-6
67%Win63%
67%CT51%
64%T53%
50%Pistol56%
100%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
GalorysAncientBounty Hunters
58%CT side55%
50%T side47%
41%Pistol55%
79%After win83%
25%After loss13%
GalorysNukeBounty Hunters
57%CT side60%
44%T side46%
51%Pistol50%
89%After win90%
6%After loss14%
GalorysCacheBounty Hunters
67%CT side51%
64%T side53%
50%Pistol56%
100%After win78%
0%After loss14%
Pistol rounds46% · 53% · Bounty Hunters win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol17% · 14% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Galorys vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapGALBOU
InfernoGAL ban25%1-3n/a0g
Bounty Hunters on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisBOU ban54%7-643%6-8
AncientGAL pick68%28-1353%23-20
NukeBOU pick50%17-1761%30-19
MirageGAL ban48%10-1156%28-22
Dust2BOU ban42%14-1943%20-27
Cachedecider67%2-163%10-6
Each team's usual first ban: Galorys Inferno · Bounty Hunters Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Galorys
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/99 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 32 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 10 downvs Back to BackAncientfrom 7 downvs ElementalsAncientfrom 7 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 6 downvs UNO MILLENukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/84 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 24 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MIBRMirageled 9 · lost 10-13vs LPNukeled 9 · lost 11-13vs SharksMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs MIBRNukeled 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MIBRMirageled 9 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs LPOverpass15-19vs SharksNuke14-16vs MIBRNuke13-16vs Keyd StarsDust222-19vs MarsborneAncient13-16
Bounty Hunters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/120 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 120 maps they won, 38 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 downvs MIBR AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs paiNMiragefrom 5 downvs Keyd StarsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/107 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 107 maps they lost, 33 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs LPCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs MIBRAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs MIBR AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs VascoMirage13-16vs ImperialNuke19-17vs R2Nuke14-16vs YawaraMirage14-16vs CrashersAncient16-14