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Predictions / ShindeN vs Turma do Pagode · match preview
ShindeN vs Turma do Pagode: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 3
ShindeN
World #80 · 52-26
VS
2026-09-18 21:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
Turma do Pagode
World #124 · 14-8
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
68%32%
62%
1.52.42Market · 10 books
38%The call
ShindeN are favoured: our model gives them 68% against Turma do Pagode. Bookmakers lean ShindeN at 62%. Strength slightly favours ShindeN, record slightly favours ShindeN, form slightly favours ShindeN, firepower slightly favours Turma do Pagode, head-to-head slightly favours ShindeN.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ShindeNpullTurma do Pagode
Team strength1656
155970/30 SHI
Track record52–26
14–857/43 SHI
Recent formWWLWW
WLWLL58/42 SHI
Roster rating1.15
1.164/36 TUR
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 SHI
Bookmakers imply 62% for ShindeN (1.5 / 2.42); we land 6 points higher at 68%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 92% our own signal (178 maps of ShindeN, 51 of Turma do Pagode). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ShindeN leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ShindeN to beat Turma do Pagode, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsShindeN · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Turma do Pagode · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ShindeN
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
paiN#273-40-2
ShindeN vs paiN
Sep 11WInferno13-6Dust213-10Apr 4LMirage8-13Inferno13-4Nuke8-13Mar 29LOverpass4-13Mirage11-13Turma do Pagode vs paiN
Sep 16LDust211-13Anubis6-13
Galorys#952-42-1
ShindeN vs Galorys
Jul 29WDust213-7Inferno13-5Feb 26LOverpass11-13Nuke10-13Feb 20LOverpass7-13Mirage9-13Turma do Pagode vs Galorys
May 11WDust213-9Nuke7-13Ancient13-7
LP#1015-32-0
ShindeN vs LP
Jul 9LAncient7-13Inferno13-7Cache7-13Jun 28WInferno13-9Ancient13-11Apr 6WAncient9-13Mirage13-4Inferno13-6Turma do Pagode vs LP
May 8WAncient13-4Dust213-5
Isurus#1174-33-4
ALKA#1232-06-2
ShindeN vs ALKA
Aug 25WAncient13-7Dust213-11
Bounty Hunters#1382-66-2
ShindeN vs Bounty Hunters
Jul 16LNuke5-13Mirage10-13May 1LAncient13-6Mirage5-13Nuke6-13Apr 2LMirage13-10Nuke4-13Dust29-13Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters
Aug 27WAncient13-11Mirage13-4May 9WNuke6-13Anubis13-9Dust213-9May 2WNuke7-13Dust213-10Overpass13-11
Keyd Stars#1642-01-0
ShindeN vs Keyd Stars
Mar 24WDust213-10Overpass13-6Turma do Pagode vs Keyd Stars
Apr 25WAnubis13-11
BESTIA Academy#1802-02-0
ShindeN vs BESTIA Academy
Feb 5WInferno13-3Nuke13-7Turma do Pagode vs BESTIA Academy
May 7WAncient13-10Overpass13-7Map lab
ShindeN62%to win the Bo3 · most likely ShindeN 2-0
If the veto goes
ShindeN 62%how the series ends38% Turma do Pagode
36%2-012%
27%2-126%
ShindeN78%33-15vsTurma do Pagode22%0-4
69%Win0%
60%CT50%
54%T23%
47%Pistol50%
89%Conv75%
ShindeN46%10-5vsTurma do Pagode54%12-5
67%Win71%
57%CT64%
49%T48%
53%Pistol65%
75%Conv95%
ShindeN51%20-13vsTurma do Pagode49%9-6
61%Win60%
53%CT58%
53%T51%
59%Pistol53%
74%Conv69%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ShindeNNukeTurma do Pagode
60%CT side50%
54%T side23%
47%Pistol50%
89%After win75%
33%After loss0%
ShindeNAncientTurma do Pagode
57%CT side64%
49%T side48%
53%Pistol65%
75%After win95%
36%After loss25%
ShindeNDust2Turma do Pagode
53%CT side58%
53%T side51%
59%Pistol53%
74%After win69%
30%After loss29%
Pistol rounds52% · 58% · Turma do Pagode win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol33% · 23% · ShindeN fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ShindeN vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSHITUR
AnubisSHI bann/a0g50%2-2
ShindeN on Anubis
no recent maps
Turma do Pagode on Anubis
LpaiN6–132d agoLyour end8–1313d agoWBounty Hunters13–94mo agoWKeyd Stars13–115mo agoMirageTUR ban54%15-1350%1-1
NukeSHI pick69%33-150%0-4
AncientTUR pick67%10-571%12-5
CacheSHI ban29%2-5100%1-0
ShindeN on Cache
L
Fluxo3–136d agoLFluxo11–139d agoW
Imperial19–1617d agoWFluxo13–819d agoLImperial7–1321d agoLImperial16–192mo agoLLP7–132mo agoTurma do Pagode on Cache
W
Yawara13–911d agoInfernoTUR ban76%25-840%2-3
Dust2decider61%20-1360%9-6
Each team's usual first ban: ShindeN Anubis · Turma do Pagode Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ShindeN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/113 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 113 maps they won, 30 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 downvs ALKADust2from 8 downvs SharksMiragefrom 7 downvs IsurusNukefrom 7 downvs Fake do BiruNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/65 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 65 maps they lost, 22 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13vs paiNMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs ImperialCacheled 6 · lost 16-19vs 9zNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs ProcyonDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs FluxoAncient16-14vs ImperialNuke16-13vs ImperialOverpass19-17vs BESTIANuke17-19vs RED CanidsMirage16-12
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/29 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 29 maps they won, 8 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs IsurusAncientfrom 7 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/22 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 22 maps they lost, 7 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-MIBR AcademyAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs ShindeNNukeled 4 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14vs DENDELEAncient12-16vs ShindeNDust216-13