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Predictions / Bounty Hunters vs BESTIA · match preview
Bounty Hunters vs BESTIA: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 3
Bounty Hunters
World #138 · 54-45
VS
2026-09-20 21:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
BESTIA
World #90 · 46-28
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
42%58%
39%
2.371.53Market · 11 books
61%The call
BESTIA are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Bounty Hunters. Bookmakers lean BESTIA at 61%. Strength slightly favours BESTIA, firepower clearly favours BESTIA, head-to-head slightly favours BESTIA.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Bounty HunterspullBESTIA
Team strength1596
163959/41 BES
Track record54–45
46–2855/45 BES
Recent formWWWLWWWWLW50/50
Roster rating1.1
1.0972/28 BES
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 BES
Bookmakers imply 39% for Bounty Hunters (2.37 / 1.53); we land 3 points higher at 42%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (231 maps of Bounty Hunters, 150 of BESTIA). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: BESTIA leads 1–0.
Bottom line: BESTIA to beat Bounty Hunters, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBounty Hunters · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BESTIA · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Bounty Hunters
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
9z#140-20-2
Bounty Hunters vs 9z
Feb 14LDust27-13Ancient10-13BESTIA vs 9z
Mar 5LInferno9-13Dust27-13
MIBR#180-40-2
BESTIA vs MIBR
Aug 2LCache9-13Inferno8-13
Fluxo#616-76-0
Bounty Hunters vs Fluxo
Sep 19WAnubis13-9Cache16-14Jul 30LCache7-13Dust213-6Nuke4-13Jul 18LNuke4-13Dust213-16+2 earlier meetings
Imperial#6211-143-7
Bounty Hunters vs Imperial
Sep 17LMirage6-13Cache13-8Nuke4-13Sep 6WMirage10-13Nuke13-11Dust213-8Sep 5LCache6-13Dust210-13+6 earlier meetings
BESTIA vs Imperial
Sep 19Wseries2-1Aug 15LNuke10-13Inferno13-9Mirage4-13Jul 28LInferno4-13Dust213-16+1 earlier meeting
ShindeN#806-28-1
Bounty Hunters vs ShindeN
Jul 16WNuke13-5Mirage13-10May 1WAncient6-13Mirage13-5Nuke13-6Apr 2WMirage10-13Nuke13-4Dust213-9BESTIA vs ShindeN
Sep 20WMirage16-13Inferno22-19Aug 2WNuke13-11Dust213-11Jan 23WNuke19-17Dust213-8+1 earlier meeting
Galorys#959-93-5
Bounty Hunters vs Galorys
Sep 18WCache10-13Ancient13-11Sep 6LNuke2-13Ancient4-13Aug 26LCache8-13Ancient10-13+5 earlier meetings
LP#1015-53-2
Bounty Hunters vs LP
Jul 28LNuke13-5Ancient10-13Cache10-13May 24WMirage13-6Overpass13-10Mar 4WDust26-13Ancient13-8Mirage13-9+1 earlier meeting
ODDIK#1132-82-0
Bounty Hunters vs ODDIK
Jul 24LDust28-13Cache13-8Mirage1-13Mar 21LNuke11-13Dust25-13Jan 31LAncient13-11Anubis11-13Overpass4-13+1 earlier meeting
BESTIA vs ODDIK
Jan 21WDust213-10Ancient13-10Map lab
BESTIA63%to win the Bo3 · most likely BESTIA 2-0
If the veto goes
Bounty Hunters 37%how the series ends63% BESTIA
12%2-040%
25%2-123%
Bounty Hunters45%30-19vsBESTIA55%12-6
61%Win67%
60%CT61%
46%T44%
50%Pistol56%
90%Conv65%
Bounty Hunters26%20-27vsBESTIA74%25-11
43%Win69%
49%CT55%
46%T55%
51%Pistol42%
73%Conv83%
Bounty Hunters53%24-20vsBESTIA47%16-15
55%Win52%
56%CT54%
47%T45%
55%Pistol58%
83%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Bounty HuntersNukeBESTIA
60%CT side61%
46%T side44%
50%Pistol56%
90%After win65%
14%After loss31%
Bounty HuntersDust2BESTIA
49%CT side55%
46%T side55%
51%Pistol42%
73%After win83%
13%After loss36%
Bounty HuntersAncientBESTIA
56%CT side54%
47%T side45%
55%Pistol58%
83%After win83%
13%After loss27%
Pistol rounds52% · 51% · level, no edge
After a won pistol82% · 79% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol13% · 32% · BESTIA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Bounty Hunters vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBOUBES
InfernoBOU bann/a0g41%9-13
Bounty Hunters on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisBES ban47%7-8n/a0g
Bounty Hunters on Anubis
WFluxo13–91d agoL
Yawara9–133d agoWYawara16–143d agoLImperial11–132mo agoWFluxo13–102mo agoW
MIBR Academy13–92mo agoL
VEXA9–134mo agoL
Turma do Pagode9–134mo agoBESTIA on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeBOU pick61%30-1967%12-6
Dust2BES pick43%20-2769%25-11
MirageBOU ban56%28-2263%17-10
CacheBES ban61%11-729%2-5
Ancientdecider55%24-2052%16-15
Each team's usual first ban: Bounty Hunters Inferno · BESTIA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Bounty Hunters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/123 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 123 maps they won, 38 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 downvs MIBR AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs paiNMiragefrom 5 downvs Keyd StarsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/108 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 34 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs LPCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs MIBRAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs MIBR AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs VascoMirage13-16vs ImperialNuke19-17vs R2Nuke14-16vs YawaraMirage14-16vs CrashersAncient16-14
BESTIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/84 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 84 maps they won, 22 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs LPAncientfrom 10 downvs 3DMAXDust2from 5 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 5 downvs ShindeNDust2from 5 downvs ODDIKAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/62 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 62 maps they lost, 21 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs Fake do BiruInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs ImperialDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs YawaraMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs GalorysAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke19-17vs MarsborneAncient19-16vs RED CanidsAncient16-13vs MANAMirage12-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsAncient14-16