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Predictions / Villainous vs Wanted Goons · match preview
Villainous vs Wanted Goons: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
Villainous
World #208 · 6-11
VS
2026-09-17 00:00 UTC
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
Wanted Goons
World #217 · 11-20
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
60%40%
57%
1.622.12Market · 3 books
43%The call
Villainous are favoured: our model gives them 60% against Wanted Goons. Bookmakers lean Villainous at 57%. Strength slightly favours Villainous, form slightly favours Villainous, firepower clearly favours Villainous, head-to-head slightly favours Wanted Goons.
Likely mapsAnubis · Ancient · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
VillainouspullWanted Goons
Team strength1462
141760/40 VIL
Track record6–11
11–2053/47 VIL
Recent formLLWLL
LLLLW63/37 VIL
Roster rating1.05
1.0686/14 VIL
Head-to-head0 maps
1 maps67/33 WAN
Bookmakers imply 57% for Villainous (1.62 / 2.12); we land 3 points higher at 60%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 90% our own signal (36 maps of Villainous, 69 of Wanted Goons). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Wanted Goons leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Villainous to beat Wanted Goons, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVillainous · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Wanted Goons · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan★ | 1.06 | 77 | 69.6% | 55% | 1.14 |
| killerPandas | 1.04 | 74.6 | 70.5% | 37% | 1.09 |
| febreeze | 0.9 | 74.3 | 70% | 52% | 1.05 |
| Magic | 0.93 | 74.9 | 66.7% | 56% | 1.02 |
| hibui | 0.94 | 68 | 69.2% | 49% | 1.02 |
Recent form
Villainous
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Without a Roof#960-20-3
Villainous vs Without a Roof
Sep 11LMirage7-13Inferno8-13
Overtake Sector#1471-32-4
Wanted Goons vs Overtake Sector
Jul 1LAncient13-10Mirage11-13Dust23-13Jun 12LMirage6-13Ancient13-10Overpass7-13
regain#1680-20-2
Villainous vs regain
Jun 30LAncient10-13Anubis3-13Wanted Goons vs regain
Apr 29LInferno10-13Ancient7-13
Iowa Stormboar#1700-20-1
Villainous vs Iowa Stormboar
Aug 28LInferno7-13Ancient13-16Wanted Goons vs Iowa Stormboar
Sep 5LMirage7-13
DETONATE#2024-10-2
Wanted Goons vs DETONATE
Jun 13LAnubis9-13Ancient14-16
NuTorious#2142-01-0
Villainous vs NuTorious
Jul 12WAnubis13-8Inferno25-21Wanted Goons vs NuTorious
Aug 30WAncient13-8BRABrahmas2-01-2
Villainous vs Brahmas
Jun 9WNuke13-8Inferno13-10Wanted Goons vs Brahmas
Jun 7LMirage9-13Overpass16-13Nuke13-16Map lab
Wanted Goons56%to win the Bo3 · most likely Wanted Goons 2-0
If the veto goes
Villainous 44%how the series ends56% Wanted Goons
16%2-033%
28%2-123%
Villainous54%5-3vsWanted Goons46%0-1
63%Win0%
51%CT67%
62%T10%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Villainous29%0-4vsWanted Goons71%9-10
0%Win47%
31%CT51%
45%T47%
38%Pistol55%
100%Conv86%
Villainous55%1-0vsWanted Goons45%4-9
100%Win31%
50%CT57%
78%T35%
100%Pistol54%
50%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
VillainousAnubisWanted Goons
51%CT side67%
62%T side10%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
50%After loss0%
VillainousAncientWanted Goons
31%CT side51%
45%T side47%
38%Pistol55%
100%After win86%
20%After loss24%
VillainousNukeWanted Goons
50%CT side57%
78%T side35%
100%Pistol54%
50%After win86%
–After loss17%
Pistol rounds50% · 55% · Wanted Goons win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol92% · 86% · Villainous keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol38% · 20% · Villainous fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Villainous vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Wanted Goons habitually bans Anubis, Villainous's strongest maps (Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 16/32), not an opponent read, so expect Villainous to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapVILWAN
Dust2VIL ban33%1-236%4-7
InfernoWAN ban45%5-625%1-3
Villainous on Inferno
LWithout a Roof8–135d agoWFarmVille13–910d agoLIncognito2–1311d agoLIowa Stormboar7–1319d agoLDETONATE3–1320d agoLOvertake Sector4–1321d agoWNuTorious25–212mo agoWCelestial13–82mo agoWanted Goons on Inferno
W
Olympus13–11d agoL
Reign Above10–134mo agoLregain10–135mo agoL
EMPIRE11–136mo agoAnubisVIL pick63%5-30%0-1
AncientWAN pick0%0-447%9-10
CacheVIL ban50%1-1n/a0g
Wanted Goons on Cache
no recent maps
MirageWAN ban33%2-421%3-11
Nukedecider100%1-031%4-9
Each team's usual first ban: Villainous Dust2 · Wanted Goons Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Villainous
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/15 (20%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 15 maps they won, 3 (20%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 20% of their wins were comebacks, not 20% of all games.vs BrahmasInfernofrom 5 downvs CelestialInfernofrom 4 downvs BrahmasNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/20 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 20 maps they lost, 5 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 14-16vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16vs Iowa StormboarAncientled 4 · lost 13-16vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 3 · lost 7-13vs Without a RoofMirageled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BrahmasInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini6.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi17% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT17% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs SportsBetExpertAnubis14-16vs NuToriousInferno25-21vs Overtake SectorMirage14-16vs Iowa StormboarAncient13-16
Wanted Goons
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/26 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 26 maps they won, 8 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs EMPIREDust2from 5 downvs NuToriousAncientfrom 5 downvs ZomblersNukefrom 4 downvs Overtake SectorAncientfrom 4 downvs Desi BoyzAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/42 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 19 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs DETONATEAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs Desi BoyzNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs EMPIREInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LAGDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EMPIREDust2from 5 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs DETONATEAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs ZomblersNuke22-18vs Reign AboveNuke17-19vs BrahmasOverpass16-13vs BrahmasNuke13-16vs DETONATEAncient14-16