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Predictions / Liquid vs Chicken Coop · match preview
Liquid vs Chicken Coop: CS2 match prediction · iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026
Liquid
World #22 · 26-27
VS
2026-09-25 17:00 UTC
iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026 · Best of 3
Chicken Coop
World #191 · 23-17
iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026 · Best of 3
69%31%
92%
1.0211.5Market · 2 books
8%The call
Liquid are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Chicken Coop. Bookmakers lean Liquid at 92%. Strength slightly favours Liquid, form clearly favours Liquid, firepower clearly favours Liquid.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LiquidpullChicken Coop
Team strength1613
154165/35 LIQ
Track record26–27
23–1756/44 CHI
Recent formWWLWW
LLLLW82/18 LIQ
Roster rating1.11
1.1281/19 LIQ
Bookmakers imply 92% for Liquid (1.02 / 11.5); we land 23 points lower at 69%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (119 maps of Liquid, 93 of Chicken Coop).
Bottom line: Liquid to beat Chicken Coop, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLiquid · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Chicken Coop · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REKMEISTER★ | 1.08 | 81.6 | 75% | 54% | 1.22 |
| Drop | 1.01 | 82.2 | 73% | 49% | 1.16 |
| Crisp | 1.08 | 72 | 72.4% | 40% | 1.12 |
| jared | 1.01 | 70.5 | 71.2% | 50% | 1.07 |
| Panic | 0.91 | 71.4 | 69.6% | 64% | 1.04 |
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Voca#842-10-2
Liquid vs Voca
Sep 12WDust26-13Anubis13-10Nuke13-8Chicken Coop vs Voca
May 28LNuke11-13Dust28-13
Marsborne#912-15-4
Liquid vs Marsborne
Sep 11WInferno16-13Anubis10-13Nuke13-5ANTantivalue2-01-2
Liquid vs antivalue
Sep 10WMirage13-4Nuke13-5Chicken Coop vs antivalue
Sep 11LAncient9-13Nuke13-7Inferno11-13Map lab
Chicken Coop54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Chicken Coop 2-0
If the veto goes
Liquid 46%how the series ends54% Chicken Coop
21%2-029%
25%2-125%
Liquid49%10-7vsChicken Coop51%2-1
59%Win67%
57%CT75%
44%T37%
53%Pistol67%
78%Conv50%
Liquid43%14-13vsChicken Coop57%12-8
52%Win60%
58%CT53%
45%T50%
57%Pistol63%
81%Conv80%
Liquid50%4-2thinChicken Coop50%0-0
67%Win–
56%CT–
57%T–
58%Pistol–
86%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LiquidMirageChicken Coop
57%CT side75%
44%T side37%
53%Pistol67%
78%After win50%
6%After loss100%
LiquidNukeChicken Coop
58%CT side53%
45%T side50%
57%Pistol63%
81%After win80%
26%After loss40%
LiquidCacheChicken Coop
56%CT side–
57%T side–
58%Pistol–
86%After win–
20%After loss–
Pistol rounds56% · 63% · Chicken Coop win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 76% · Liquid keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 47% · Chicken Coop fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Liquid vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLIQCHI
AncientLIQ ban31%5-1162%8-5
AnubisCHI ban57%8-60%0-1
MirageLIQ pick59%10-767%2-1
NukeCHI pick52%14-1360%12-8
Dust2LIQ ban30%6-1430%6-14
InfernoCHI ban59%10-755%12-10
Cachedecider67%4-2n/a0g
Liquid on Cache
W
NRG13–64d agoL
1win7–131mo agoW
Metizport13–91mo agoW
Betclic13–111mo agoW
9INE13–41mo agoLBetclic12–162mo agoChicken Coop on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Liquid Overpass · Chicken Coop Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Liquid
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/57 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 57 maps they won, 13 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 downvs M80Miragefrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 4 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 4 downvs VitalityAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/60 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 15 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs 3DMAXNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SashiNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs PARIVISIONDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs G2Mirageled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs FalconsNuke14-16vs G2Anubis14-16vs Passion UANuke15-19vs M80Mirage16-13
Chicken Coop
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/50 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 15 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs ZomblersInfernofrom 8 downvs InControlOverpassfrom 6 downvs AetherNukefrom 6 downvs SportsBetExpertOverpassfrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/43 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 43 maps they lost, 15 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs OverKnightDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MarsborneDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs antivalueInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs LAGNukeled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ZomblersInfernofrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs InControlOverpass16-13vs F5Nuke16-12vs AetherNuke22-20vs regainInferno18-22