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Predictions / Kodex vs Unreal Nightmare · match preview
Kodex vs Unreal Nightmare: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
KODUNR
Kodex
World #230 · 0-2
VS
2026-09-20 00:00 UTC
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
Unreal Nightmare
World #– · 0-2
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
47%53%
42%
2.211.61Market · 8 books
58%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean Unreal Nightmare at 58%. Record slightly favours Unreal Nightmare, firepower clearly favours Unreal Nightmare.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
KodexpullUnreal Nightmare
Team strength1473147450/50
Track record0–2
0–267/33 UNR
Recent formLLLL50/50
Roster rating0.87
0.973/27 UNR
Bookmakers imply 42% for Kodex (2.21 / 1.61); we land 5 points higher at 47%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 55% our own signal (4 maps of Kodex, 5 of Unreal Nightmare; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Unreal Nightmare to beat Kodex, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsKodex · avg 0.87 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Unreal Nightmare · avg 0.9 · star gap +0.3iStar gap: the best player rates 0.3 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Kodex
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Unreal Nightmare53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Unreal Nightmare 2-1
If the veto goes
Kodex 47%how the series ends53% Unreal Nightmare
25%2-025%
22%2-128%
Kodex50%0-1thinUnreal Nightmare50%0-0
0%Win–
14%CT–
42%T–
100%Pistol–
50%Conv–
Kodex50%0-0thinUnreal Nightmare50%0-2
–Win0%
–CT17%
–T25%
–Pistol25%
–Conv0%
Kodex44%0-2vsUnreal Nightmare56%1-0
0%Win100%
61%CT75%
19%T100%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
KodexAnubisUnreal Nightmare
14%CT side–
42%T side–
100%Pistol–
50%After win–
–After loss–
KodexMirageUnreal Nightmare
–CT side17%
–T side25%
–Pistol25%
–After win0%
–After loss33%
KodexAncientUnreal Nightmare
61%CT side75%
19%T side100%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds67% · 33% · Kodex win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 50% · Kodex keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 25% · Unreal Nightmare fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Kodex vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapKODUNR
InfernoKOD bann/a0gn/a0g
Kodex on Inferno
no recent maps
Unreal Nightmare on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2UNR bann/a0gn/a0g
Kodex on Dust2
no recent maps
Unreal Nightmare on Dust2
no recent maps
AnubisKOD pick0%0-1n/a0g
Kodex on Anubis
L
Marsborne6–133d agoUnreal Nightmare on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageUNR pickn/a0g0%0-2
Kodex on Mirage
no recent maps
NukeKOD ban0%0-10%0-1
Kodex on Nuke
LFor Fun6–1320d agoUnreal Nightmare on Nuke
L
EMPIRE10–1314d agoCacheUNR bann/a0g0%0-1
Kodex on Cache
no recent maps
Unreal Nightmare on Cache
L
NuTorious11–1320d agoAncientdecider0%0-2100%1-0
Unreal Nightmare on Ancient
WEMPIRE13–314d agoEach team's usual first ban: Kodex Inferno · Unreal Nightmare Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Kodex
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneAnubisled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneAnubisled 4 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Unreal Nightmare
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/1 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 1 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EMPIRENukeled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EMPIRENukeled 3 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini7.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample