Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean Unreal Nightmare at 58%. Record slightly favours Unreal Nightmare, firepower clearly favours Unreal Nightmare.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Ancient
Firepower
roster ratings
Kodex · avg 0.87 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Unreal Nightmare · avg 0.9 · star gap +0.3iStar gap: the best player rates 0.3 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
No prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Unreal Nightmare53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Unreal Nightmare 2-1
If the veto goes
Kodex 47%how the series ends53% Unreal Nightmare
25%2-025%
22%2-128%
Map 1AnubisKodex pick
Kodex50%0-1thinUnreal Nightmare50%0-0
0%Win–
14%CT–
42%T–
100%Pistol–
50%Conv–
Map 2MirageUnreal Nightm… pick
Kodex50%0-0thinUnreal Nightmare50%0-2
–Win0%
–CT17%
–T25%
–Pistol25%
–Conv0%
Map 3Ancientdecider
Kodex44%0-2vsUnreal Nightmare56%1-0
0%Win100%
61%CT75%
19%T100%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
KodexAnubisUnreal Nightmare
14%CT side–
42%T side–
100%Pistol–
50%After win–
–After loss–
KodexMirageUnreal Nightmare
–CT side17%
–T side25%
–Pistol25%
–After win0%
–After loss33%
KodexAncientUnreal Nightmare
61%CT side75%
19%T side100%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds67% · 33% · Kodex win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 50% · Kodex keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 25% · Unreal Nightmare fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Kodex vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: Kodex Inferno · Unreal Nightmare Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Kodex
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneAnubisled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Unreal Nightmare
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/1 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 1 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EMPIRENukeled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample