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Predictions / Fathom vs F5 · match preview
Fathom vs F5: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
46%54%
30%
3.021.32Market · 3 books
70%The call
F5 are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Fathom. Bookmakers lean F5 at 70%. Strength slightly favours Fathom, record clearly favours Fathom, firepower clearly favours Fathom.
Likely mapsAnubis · Ancient · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FathompullF5
Team strength1512
146959/41 FAT
Track record1–0
15–2080/20 FAT
Recent formWWLLLL50/50
Roster rating1.15
1.0884/16 FAT
Bookmakers imply 30% for Fathom (3.02 / 1.32); we land 16 points higher at 46%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 44% our own signal (2 maps of Fathom, 83 of F5; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: F5 to beat Fathom, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFathom · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmoredHarp★ | 1.43 | 94.6 | 74.7% | 40% | 1.27 |
| Cinna | 1.3 | 73.3 | 82% | 57% | 1.25 |
| atom | 1.11 | 76.9 | 72.5% | 34% | 1.1 |
| tripp | 1.03 | 85.9 | 68.5% | 50% | 1.08 |
| no1nx | 1.38 | 69.5 | 84% | 55% | 1.04 |
F5 · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flacko★ | 1.17 | 87.9 | 74.8% | 48% | 1.33 |
| atyla | 1.04 | 81.7 | 78.2% | 49% | 1.16 |
| SeRCEra | 1.01 | 75.1 | 65.1% | 52% | 1.06 |
| Michael Weki | 0.99 | 67.6 | 71.5% | 46% | 0.95 |
| colin | 0.86 | 60.7 | 75.2% | 52% | 0.92 |
Recent form
Fathom
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Wanted Goons#2172-04-5
Fathom vs Wanted Goons
Sep 21WAnubis13-8Ancient13-10Map lab
Fathom54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Fathom 2-0
If the veto goes
Fathom 54%how the series ends46% F5
29%2-021%
25%2-125%
Fathom54%1-0vsF546%1-2
100%Win33%
56%CT56%
67%T35%
0%Pistol50%
–Conv100%
Fathom54%1-0vsF546%8-11
100%Win42%
67%CT49%
45%T49%
50%Pistol53%
100%Conv90%
Fathom50%0-0thinF550%10-5
–Win67%
–CT57%
–T49%
–Pistol57%
–Conv82%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FathomAnubisF5
56%CT side56%
67%T side35%
0%Pistol50%
–After win100%
0%After loss0%
FathomAncientF5
67%CT side49%
45%T side49%
50%Pistol53%
100%After win90%
0%After loss11%
FathomMirageF5
–CT side57%
–T side49%
–Pistol57%
–After win82%
–After loss31%
Pistol rounds25% · 54% · F5 win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 88% · Fathom keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 18% · F5 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Fathom vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFATF5
CacheFAT bann/a0gn/a0g
Fathom on Cache
no recent maps
F5 on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2F5 bann/a0g0%0-4
Fathom on Dust2
no recent maps
AnubisFAT pick100%1-033%1-2
Fathom on Anubis
WWanted Goons13–8todayAncientF5 pick100%1-042%8-11
NukeFAT bann/a0g33%4-8
InfernoF5 bann/a0g46%6-7
Fathom on Inferno
no recent maps
Miragedecidern/a0g67%10-5
Each team's usual first ban: Fathom Nuke · F5 Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Fathom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/2 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi50% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT50% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
F5
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/36 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 36 maps they won, 12 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs FRZAncientfrom 6 downvs Outfit 49Overpassfrom 6 downvs OmenMiragefrom 5 downvs FarmVilleMiragefrom 4 downvs FarmVilleOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/47 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 13 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 7 · lost 6-13vs FRZNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs Reign AboveAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs Reign AboveAncientled 4 · lost 5-13vs Overtake SectorDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FRZAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini6.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs FlyQuest REDAncient20-22vs Chicken CoopNuke12-16vs MythicOverpass19-17vs VocaAncient14-16vs FarmVilleOverpass19-17